The Tight End Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
We have just three football games between now and August (although Vince McMahon may have something to say about that). Just four teams remain, with one of them boasting a quarterback with more Super Bowl rings than the other starting QBs have combined playoff wins. Be sure to check out our Vegas Lines and Outliers articles, as well as our Market Share report, to stay on top of the latest Vegas and workload related trends heading into the conference title games. Let’s get it.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the two-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big Gronk
One more thing about the aforementioned quarterback with more Super Bowl rings than the other starting QBs have combined playoff wins: He’s throwing to the best tight end of all time.
- Rob Gronkowski ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Gronk is one of just three tight ends to score at least 70 career touchdowns – and his average of 70.4 yards per game is the highest mark among anyone to ever play the position. Incredibly, he’s been a different animal and the same beast in the postseason. Let’s discuss the legend known as #PlayoffGronk.
To Gronk or not to Gronk
The Patriots proved last season that they don’t need their stud tight end to win the Super Bowl, but having one of the most-dominant receivers ever is certainly a boost. They’ve never had any qualms about force-feeding him the ball come January, as Gronk has averaged 7.1 targets per game during the regular season compared to 8.5 targets in the playoffs throughout his career. He’s racked up eight-plus targets in 73 percent of his post-season contests vs. 42 percent of games in the regular season. The damage since 2014 is downright spectacular:
- 8 targets, 3-28-1
- 10 tgts, 6-68-1
- 13 tgts, 7-108-1
- 8 tgts, 7-83-2
- 15 tgts, 8-144-1
- 9 tgts, 6-81-1
Gronk could be needed more than ever this week if the Patriots decide to attack what is potentially the Jaguars’ biggest weakness. Per Rotoworld’s Warren Sharpe, the Jaguars’ league-best defense in overall and pass DVOA has been most susceptible to formations featuring fewer than three wide receivers. The Patriots were one of just eight teams to feature 3-1 sets on fewer than 50 percent of their offensive snaps this season, so their Gronk-centric passing attack is theoretically in a decent spot vs. the Jaguars’ 20th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends. Vance McDonald‘s 10-112-0 line on 16 targets last week indicated the Steelers had a similar plan for attacking the defense. The potential absences of FS Tashaun Gipson (foot, questionable) and SS Barry Church (shoulder, probable) certainly wouldn’t help matters. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to view daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all banged-up players.
The lack of elite running backs and wide receivers remaining makes Gronk the second-highest priced FLEX on DraftKings. It’s warranted considering he’s working with the highest-implied total on the slate and the Jaguars boast the slate’s worst defense in average DraftKings points allowed above salary-based expectation to tight ends over the past 12 months. Gronk carries the second-highest median projection and third-highest projected ceiling among Flex plays in our Pro Models. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Gronk’s status as the No. 1 receiver on the league’s second-highest scoring offense leads to record-high ownership levels across different contest sizes. Consider using our Lineup Builder to make Tom Brady-Gronk stacks on Sunday.
Hot Routes
Kyle Rudolph ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) and David Morgan ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Rudolph had been hampered by an ankle injury towards the end of the season, but was a full go for the Vikings’ divisional round win over the Saints. Rudolph set a season high in routes run (41), a 10-week high in targets (8) and a five-week high in snap rate (87%). Meanwhile Morgan wasn’t targeted, and he’s not a realistic option considering he saw just 12 looks all season. He’ll face off against the Eagles’ 17th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends, but will likely see plenty of Malcolm Jenkins – PFF’s No. 18 overall safety this season. Even Jenkins’ mostly-superb play hasn’t helped slow down some of the featured tight ends to take on the Eagles this season:
- Evan Engram (2 games): 13 tgts, 8-87-0. 7 tgts, 5-45-0
- Travis Kelce: 10 tgts, 8-103-1
- Jordan Reed (2 games): 10 tgts, 8-64-2. 8 tgts, 5-36-0
- Jimmy Graham: 4 tgts, 3-26-1
The Eagles’ 17th-ranked defense in DVOA against tight ends will at least benefit from playing inside the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. Offenses have scored 10.5 fewer points per game (PPG) at Lincoln Financial Field since the beginning of last season. Opposing tight ends have posted a -1.7 Plus/Minus at home against the Eagles compared to a -3.3 Plus/Minus in Philadelphia (per our Trends Tool). Rudolph carries the second-highest projected ceiling – as well as the second-highest projected ownership – among all tight ends.
Jacob Hollister ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) and Dwayne Allen ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Allen has only been utilized as a receiver on 37 percent of his snaps this season, while Hollister’s 45 percent rate is less impressive after considering he played just 94 snaps all season. Allen outsnapped Hollister 23-7 last Saturday night, while Hollister caught the duo’s only target for zero yards. Neither player has seen more than two targets with Gronk active this season, and their roles will almost exclusively consist of blocking with Brady’s entire arsenal of receivers and running backs expected to be active.
Marcedes Lewis ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), Ben Koyack ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel), and James O’Shaughnessy ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): In Week 3, Lewis converted five targets into a 4-62-3 line. This marks the last time a Jaguars tight end surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game or scored multiple touchdowns. Koyack and O’Shaughnessy saw just seven and 24 targets this season respectively, but Lewis’ status as the team’s undisputed TE1 has hardly guaranteed him a featured role.
The 33-year old has seen more than three targets in a game just once since the middle of November and he’s converted four playoff targets into an underwhelming 3-17-0 line. While Lewis’ five targets inside the 10-yard line are the second-most on the Jaguars, none of those looks have come during the aforementioned time period. Lewis will likely play the most snaps among the slate’s minimum-priced tight end options, but his matchup against the Patriots’ eight-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends is far from ideal. Exposure to Lewis should be concentrated on DraftKings, where he has an 82 percent Bargain Rating. The Patriots rank among the top six defenses in fewest Draftkings PPG, Plus/Minus, and Consistency Rating allowed to tight ends since September ended.
Trey Burton ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel), and Brent Celek ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Burton hasn’t seen more than three targets in any of Zach Ertz‘s 13 full games this season (more on him in a bit). The same can be said for Celek, and they saw a combined one target last Saturday. Burton is the better receiver and more worthy of a dart throw than Celek, but it’s tough to get even a little excited about the No. 6 option in an Eagles offense that has scored just two touchdowns with Nick Foles under center over their last nine quarters.
The Model Tight Ends
Other than Gronk, one tight end stands atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Zach Ertz ($5,300 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
Ertz’s production has taken a hit with Foles under center, but he’s continued to work as the offense’s No. 1 option. Ertz has converted a team-high 25 targets over the past four games into a 17-161-1 line. His 1.5 targets inside the 20-yard line with Foles surpasses his average of one-such target per game with Wentz. Ertz’s only volume-related negative concerns deep balls, as he’s seen just two targets thrown 20-plus yards downfield over his four games with Foles after having nine-such targets in 13 games with Wentz. Ertz is a talented and capable tight end, but Wentz took his game to a level that we simply haven’t seen him replicate with anyone else under center:
- Ertz with Wentz (25 games): 7.6 targets, 5.4 receptions, 59.2 yards, 0.44 TDs, 13.96 DraftKings PPG
- W/o Wentz (34 games): 6.7 targets, 4.4 receptions, 50.5 yards, 0.18 TDs, 10.52 DraftKings PPG
It makes sense the Eagles’ featured receiver has struggled without his franchise quarterback under center. The same can also be said for most players with a generational talent at quarterback. Still, Ertz has several factors working in his favor that have helped push him up our models. Historically, he’s averaged 13 DraftKings PPG with a +4.0 Plus/Minus and 67 percent Consistency Rating in Philadelphia since 2014. Ertz could also benefit from the potential absence of safety Andrew Sendejo (concussion, questionable) – PFF’s No. 11 overall safety this season. The Vikings’ second-ranked defense in DVOA against tight ends didn’t allow anybody to surpass 17 DraftKings points in a game this season, although they’ve at least looked somewhat mortal when attempting to limit offenses outside of Minnesota over the years:
- Vikings defense at home since 2014 (32 games):17.96 PPG, 204.5 pass yards, 4.9 DraftKings PPG, -1.0 Plus/Minus
- On the road (32 games): 19.66 PPG, 224.8 pass yards, 6.2 DraftKings PPG, -0.2 Plus/Minus
Ertz carries a higher projected floor than Gronk, with lower projected ownership than both Gronk and Rudolph. Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage and in the secondary.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the tight ends for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
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Photo Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
