The Running Back Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
We have just three football games between now and August (although Vince McMahon may have something to say about that). Just four teams remain, and only one has a so-called “featured” running back. Be sure to check out our Vegas Lines and Outliers articles, as well as our Market Share report, to stay on top of the latest Vegas and workload related trends heading into the conference title games. Let’s get it.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the two-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big Two-ish
This week’s highest-priced backs include a man with more touchdowns at Heinz Field this season than Le’Veon Bell, along with PFF‘s most-elusive back (and his plethora of backfield teammates)…
- Leonard Fournette ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel)
- Dion Lewis ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Rex Burkhead ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel), and James White ($4,900 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
While Fournette is subject to Bill Belichick’s full defensive focus, Lewis has to deal with his coach’s insistence on spreading out the backfield’s touches. It wouldn’t be #ChampionshipWeek without having to adjust our method to deal with the Patriot way, after all.
It’s a bird … it’s a plane … it’s Fournette, man!
The Jaguars’ featured back was involved in a minor fender bender Tuesday, but the team confirmed he’s fine and was able to practice Wednesday. More concerning is an ankle injury that sidelined Fournette for the majority of the second quarter last Sunday. He wasn’t the same back upon returning from the injury, as Fournette averaged 6.8 yards per carry before the ankle issue compared to just 2.2 yards per carry after. He’ll have his hands full with the Patriots front seven that held Derrick Henry to just 28 yards on 12 carries, thanks in large part to a ruthless ‘Bear’ front that pits three down linemen between the B-gaps and outside rushers instructed to contain:
Fournette should see plenty of NE's Bear front that helped hold Derrick Henry to just 28 yards on 12 carries. Fournette averaged 6.8 YPC before his ankle injury; 2.2 YPC after. pic.twitter.com/7UMM7euggO
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 17, 2018
Despite the injury and schematic concerns, there’s reason to be optimistic about Fournette’s personnel matchup. The Patriots’ 31st-ranked defensive line in adjusted-line yards allowed per rush will be a downgrade from the Steelers’ 12th-ranked unit, while the Titans’ 23rd-ranked offensive line in adjusted-line yards per rush isn’t as strong as the Jaguars’ 13th-ranked unit. The Patriots could also again be without 6’6″ 325-pound run stuffer Alan Branch (knee, questionable), who hasn’t played since Week 14. Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to view daily practice participation and estimated game statuses for all relevant starters.
Belichick’s reputation for always taking away the opponent’s No. 1 weapon may be a bit overstated, as they’ve allowed more than a few performances of 100-plus yards with a trip to the end zone. Fournette’s stranglehold on the Jaguars backfield can’t be overstated, as he’s averaged 19.7 rush attempts and four targets per game since Week 10 – the first and second highest marks among all remaining running backs. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus, Projected Ceiling, and Projected Floor among running backs in our Pro Models.
Dion and Friends
The Patriots reportedly expect to welcome back Burkhead this Sunday. With Burkhead, Lewis, and White healthy in Weeks 7-15, Lewis led the way with 14.3 touches per game, but Burkhead’s abundance of fantasy-friendly touches resulted in him averaging 0.9 touchdowns per game over that span. Burkhead’s 3.6 targets per game are in line with Lewis’ average of 3.8 targets over that span, although Burkhead’s seven rushes inside the 10-yard line surpass Lewis’ season-long mark of four-such rushes. Lewis and White averaged an additional 3.1 and 1.7 touches, respectively, with Burkhead sidelined this season.
Even if Burkhead is ultimately unable to suit up, Lewis worked behind both White and Brandon Bolden inside the 10-yard line last week. His matchup against the Jaguars’ league-best defense in DVOA also isn’t ideal, as they’ve allowed just 100.3 rushing yards per game since adding run-stuffer Marcell Dareus in Week 10. Getting production through the air won’t be much easier, as the Patriots will face a Jaguars defense with three of PFF’s top-12 linebackers in coverage this season. The Titans defense Lewis and White shredded last week didn’t have a linebacker graded among PFF’s top 35 coverage backers.
The Patriots are currently implied to score a slate-high 27.25 points, and their running backs have averaged a +2.0 Plus/Minus and 51.4 percent Consistency Rating when favored at home by at least a touchdown since 2014 (per our Trends tool). While more certainty surrounding Burkhead’s health and returning workload could change the entire backfield’s outlook, White and Lewis currently carry the slate’s highest projected ownership, but negative Projected Plus/Minus values. Burkhead has significantly reduced ownership and is especially in play on FanDuel, where his reduced price tag comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.. Be sure to check out our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see how this difficult matchup and uncertain backfield impacts each back’s ownership at different contest sizes.
Hot Routes
Jay Ajayi ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), LeGarrette Blount ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), and Corey Clement ($3,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Ajayi seemed primed to break out of the Eagles’ three-back committee headed into last Saturday, but ultimately played just 29 snaps. Blount and Clement were on the field for 20 and 16 plays, respectively. Ajayi has averaged an additional 1.4 yards per carry compared to Blount and Clement since joining the Eagles, but continues to split most of his fantasy-friendly opportunities:
Ajayi has led the backfield through the air and on the ground, but has become just another guy once the Eagles have entered scoring position. That wasn’t a huge deal with Carson Wentz healthy, but Nick Foles has led the offense to just two touchdowns over his last nine quarters under center. The Eagles haven’t shown any indication that they plan on changing their backfield rotation and the Vikings’ second-ranked defense in overall DVOA should present a tougher challenge than the Falcons’ 22nd-ranked unit. About the only thing working in the Eagles’ favor is the Vikings’ struggles when playing outside of Minnesota:
- Vikings defense at home since 2016 (17 games):15.77 PPG, 85.7 pass yards, -2.6 Plus/Minus
- On the road (16 games): 19.69 PPG, 104.5 rush yards, -1.7 Plus/Minus
The Vikings front seven has been fairly spectacular wherever they’ve played, but especially so inside the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium. All three backs carry negative Projected Plus/Minuses, and exposure should be concentrated on DraftKings where they have the three-highest Bargain Ratings on among running backs on the slate.
T.J. Yeldon ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) and Chris Ivory ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Ivory was a healthy scratch last week, although the status of Fournette’s ankle could change things this time around. If Ivory ultimately doesn’t suit up, Yeldon will continue to work as the team’s scat back and No. 2 option in the run game behind Fournette. Yeldon figures to have at least a decent sized role regardless, as his 4.4 targets per game since Week 10 are the most among all backs not eliminated from playoff contention. Yeldon’s ceiling and floor are certainly volatile with Fournette banged up, but he’s proven capable of producing with limited touches:
- Yeldon with Fournette (8 games): 9 att, 63.3 yds, 0.3 TDs, 3.7 tgts, 2.7 rec, 17 yds
- W/o Fournette (3 games): 3.4 att, 10.4 yds, 0.3 TDs, 4.1 tgts, 3.1 rec, 28.8 yds
The Jaguars aren’t about to give Yeldon any of Fournette’s goal-line carries, but he still figures to remain involved as a receiver against the Patriots’ 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA vs. receiving backs. Yeldon’ projected ownership is tied for the lowest among backs projected to be active Sunday – but he caries the single-lowest projected floor.
The Model Running Backs
Fournette and the Patriots’ stable of backs stand atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek), but the following two backs grade out favorably as well:
- Latavius Murray ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel)
- Jerick McKinnon ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Vikings’ sensational playoff win over the Saints saw the offense continue to utilize Murray as the go-to back with McKinnon working in a change-of-pace role. Murray has racked up at least 15 carries in all but one game since Week 5, while McKinnon has fewer than double-digit rushes in five of his last six outings and more than four targets just twice during that span. Things won’t be easy for either back against an Eagles defense that ranks atop most major statistical categories against the run. The Eagles rank among the top-five defenses in fewest rushing touchdowns, yards per game, DraftKings PPG, and Plus/Minus allowed to opposing running backs this season.
Not helping matters is just how good the Eagles’ respective fifth and second ranked defense in overall and rush DVOA has been at Lincoln Financial Field:
- Eagles defense at home since 2016 (17 games): 14.2 PPG, 76.2 rush yards, 7.3 DraftKings PPG, -3.0 Plus/Minus
- On the road (16 games): 24.7 PPG, 106.8 rush yards, 9.4 DraftKings PPG, +0.5 Plus/Minus
The Eagles have allowed 150-plus rushing yards on four separate occasions on the road since the beginning of last season, but an opponent hasn’t crossed that threshold in Philadelphia since December 2015. Only the Vikings have had a stingier defense against running backs in terms of DraftKings points allowed below salary-based expectation over the past 12 months. Neither offense will exactly benefit from game script with a 38.5-point Vegas Total and matchup between two of the league’s bottom-10 slowest moving offenses in pace.
On a small slate with uncertainty and injuries surrounding three of the four available backfields, Murray and McKinnon are a refreshing sip of consistency. Exposure to McKinnon should be focused on DraftKings, where he has an 85 percent Bargain Rating, while Murray’s 74 percent mark on FanDuel makes him a better value there. They’ll need to take advantage of every opportunity they get behind the league’s 19th-ranked offensive line in adjusted line yards vs. the Eagles’ league-best unit. Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the running backs for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
