The Quarterback Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit the NFL homepage.
We have just three football games between now and August (although Vince McMahon may have something to say about that). Just four teams remain, with one of them boasting a quarterback with more Super Bowl rings than the other starting QBs have combined playoff wins. Be sure to check out our Vegas Lines and Outliers articles, as well as our Market Share report, to stay on top of the latest Vegas and workload related trends heading into the conference title games. Let’s get it.
As always, this breakdown is explicitly for the two-game main slate, although it has wider applicability.
The Big One
Father Time might be undefeated, but the highest-priced quarterback across the industry seems capable of giving him a run for his money:
- Tom Brady ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Brady has 10 more playoff wins, 21 more passing touchdowns and 2,092 more passing yards than Joe Montana during their respective playoff careers. And yet, the logic of the “4/4 > 5/7” crowd would insist Brady’s legacy would be better off taking a loss this Sunday instead of in two weeks. Gotta be able to win the big one!
Gisele Bündchen’s Husband
Brady meticulously picked apart the Titans to the tune of 337 yards and three touchdowns, marking the eighth time he threw for multiple touchdowns and seventh time he surpassed 300 yards in his last nine playoff games. The league’s greatest quarterback-sneak artist ever proved he’s still mobile enough to navigate the pocket and make accurate throws all over the field:
A 40-year old 🐐 in its natural habitat pic.twitter.com/aDrG6XDvgm
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 16, 2018
Of course, the Jaguars’ league-best defense in overall and pass DVOA will be a much tougher challenge than the Titans’ 18th and 24th ranked defense in those categories. The Jaguars secondary has two of PFF’s top eight cornerbacks in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, although they’re fresh off surrendering 469 yards and five touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and company. The secondary isn’t the Patriots’ only concern, as their 14th ranked offensive line in adjusted-sack rate will have their hands full with a Jaguars defensive line that has three of PFF’s top 15 pass rushers at their position in Malik Jackson, Calais Campbell, and Yannick Ngakoue. Brady isn’t a stranger to taking on top-ranked defenses in the playoffs, but he could certainly use the assistance of Rex Burkhead (knee, probable) to attack the league’s 15th ranked unit in DVOA vs. receiving running backs.
Brady has the highest median projection, projected ceiling, and projected floor among all quarterbacks in our Pro Models, but his DraftKings salary has risen $700 since last week despite the brutal matchup. Be sure to monitor our Ownership Dashboard shortly after lock to see if Brady is still the chalk despite the matchup and elevated price tag. Of course, the league’s second-ranked scoring offense will look to get their all-time great quarterback and tight end going against the league’s 20th-ranked defense in DVOA vs. tight ends. Consider using our Lineup Builder to make Brady-Rob Gronkowski stacks on Sunday.
Hot Routes
Case Keenum ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Before Keenum’s 61-yard divisional round miracle to Stefon Diggs, he’d completed just 24 of 39 passes for 257 yards and zero touchdowns. The league’s 19th-ranked passer in both red zone and deep ball attempts per game doesn’t have a plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities to work with on a game-by-game basis. Keenum’s efficiency in six games against top 10 pass defenses is also concerning for his upcoming matchup against the Eagles’ seventh-ranked defense in pass DVOA:
- Vs. Top-10 defenses (6 games): 63.9% cmp, 7.02 Y/A, 1.3/1.0 TD/INT
- Vs. Non-top-10 defenses (9 games): 68.6% cmp, 7.79 Y/A, 1.6/0.2 TD/INT
Keenum has still proven capable of producing in tough matchups, but it’s tough to see him benefiting from positive game script given both the Vikings and Eagles have played at a bottom-10 pace this season and quarterbacks have averaged a -1.3 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a Vegas total of 38 points or less. Further complicating matters is how much better the Eagles have played at home. Offenses have scored 10.5 fewer points per game (PPG) at Lincoln Financial Field since the beginning of last season. Opposing road quarterbacks have averaged just 12.4 DraftKings PPG with a -4.3 Plus/Minus and 22 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends Tool).
Keenum has the lowest Projected Plus/Minus among all quarterbacks. He’ll have to get the job done against a tenacious defensive line that has five of PFF’s top-30 highest-graded pass rushers this season. Be sure to utilize our Matchups tool to break down each week’s battles at the line of scrimmage.
Nick Foles ($4,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Foles joins Ron Jaworski, Randall Cunningham, Rodney Peete, and Donovan McNabb on the franchise’s exclusive playoff-winning quarterbacks list, but last Sunday’s performance hardly calmed the nerves of fantasy investors. Foles led a run-first attack and threw for just 246 yards and zero touchdowns, marking the fourth time in as many games that he failed to surpass 250 yards through the air. He’s led the offense to just two touchdowns over his last nine quarters under center and accordingly carries the lowest projected floor and ceiling among quarterbacks this week. If there’s a silver lining for Foles, it’s that the Vikings’ second-ranked defense in overall DVOA hasn’t been the same monster away from Minnesota since 2016:
- Vikings defense at home since 2014 (32 games):17.96 PPG, 204.5 pass yards, 12.7 DraftKings PPG, -3.7 Plus/Minus
- On the road (32 games): 19.66 PPG, 224.8 pass yards, 15.8 DraftKings PPG, -0.6 Plus/Minus
Even with the less-than-stellar road performances, the Vikings have allowed a slate-best 8.1 DraftKings points below salary-based expectation to quarterbacks over the past 12 months. The Eagles are currently implied to score a slate-low 17.25 points, but could take advantage of a Vikings defense that could be without safety Andrew Sendejo (concussion, questionable). Be sure to monitor our Injury Dashboard to track all fantasy relevant player’s daily practice participation and estimated game status.
The Model Quarterback
Other than Brady, one other quarterback stands atop the Pro Models built by Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, and Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek):
- Blake Bortles ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
Bortles hasn’t managed to complete more than 55 percent of his passes, score multiple touchdowns, or surpass 215 yards through the air in either of his playoff wins. He’s remained a valuable fantasy contributor thanks to 123 rushing yards over the past two weeks and the Patriots’ 21st-ranked defense in pass DVOA will be his easiest matchup yet – at least on paper. As FantasyLabs’ Editor-in-Chief Matthew Freedman noted in his aforementioned Vegas outliers article, this current Patriots defense is a different beast than the one we saw in September and October:
The Pats have held opponents below their implied Vegas totals in a league-high 12 games, and they’ve been especially strong since Week 7. In the first six weeks of the season, they allowed every quarterback they faced to pass for a minimum of 300 yards, and half of their opponents hit their Vegas expectations. Since then, however, not one quarterback has passed for 300 yards, and they’ve held opponents below their implied totals in nine of 11 games.
The Patriots allowed an average of 24.6 DraftKings PPG and a +6.95 Plus/Minus to opposing quarterbacks in October and September compared to 13.3 DraftKings PPG and a -2.27 Plus/Minus in November and December. Bortles carries the highest Projected Plus/Minus among quarterbacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, indicating he’s undervalued with his pedestrian price tag despite the tough matchup. He’s the highest-rated quarterback in three of our four featured Pro Models, but will have to get the job done against a Patriots’ secondary highlighted by Stephon Gilmore and Patrick Chung, two of PFF’s top-15 defensive backs in coverage this season.
Per our Correlations Dashboard, the average correlation between a quarterback and their RB1 this season has been a middling 0.08. Bortles and Leonard Fournette‘s fantasy production has a strong negative -0.57 correlation, which makes sense given the running back’s struggles in the passing game. Bortles has dealt with numerous injuries to his receivers this season, but appears locked into Dede Westbrook and Marqise Lee given they’ve led the group in targets and snaps over the past two weeks.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Research the quarterbacks for yourself with our tools and read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
• Defense & Special Teams
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke -USA TODAY Sports
