The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in the Conference Championship slate!
Snaps
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, we want guys who actually show up on the field.
Notes
Four players from the remaining teams got 70-plus snaps last week: Adam Thielen (77), Brandin Cooks (76), Rob Gronkowski (74), and Kyle Rudolph (71). That fits with season-long trends: The Patriots and Vikings finished the regular season second and seventh in neutral pace of play, respectively. That really matters in a two-game slate, especially when three of the four teams rank in the top-five in defensive DVOA. Points could be hard to come by, which means that raw snaps — just being on the field for opportunities — could be more important than usual.
Targets
Players compete for one ball on a per play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
Notes
There isn’t a market share stud left in the playoffs. Of the remaining pass-catchers, Stefon Diggs led them last week with just 25.0 percent of the Vikings’ targets in the Divisional Round. These quarterbacks have been spreading the ball around, which means that there’s likely some value in the mid-range on DraftKings and FanDuel. Danny Amendola, for example, received 13 targets — a 24.5 percent market share — last week and is still priced at just $5,500 on DraftKings. Marqise Lee was third in target share (24.0 percent) in the Divisional Round, and he’s just $4,400. Based on positional scarcity on the small slate, it could be wise to pay up at the other positions and down at wide receiver.
Rushes
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
Notes
Of the remaining RBs, only Leonard Fournette had at least 75 percent of his team’s rushes last week. He led all options with 25 carries, including a ridiculous five rushes inside the 10-yard line. He now leads all players with seven touches in that area in the playoffs. The Jaguars are likely to try to slow the game down and get him involved as much as possible. He had three touchdowns last week and even had one vultured by T.J. Yeldon. He’s hard to afford at $7,200 on DraftKings, but he’s actually cheaper than Dion Lewis ($8,100), who should be the more popular option given the Patriots’ implied point total and favorite status.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
Notes
Despite Fournette dominating the red zone last week, Lewis and Latavius Murray still lead all players this week with 11 and 10 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games, respectively. The Patriots’ situation is interesting, however, as a whopping seven different players got either a rush or target in that area versus the Titans. James White led them with two rushes and a target, and the Pats have showed they want to keep him involved in the playoffs. The Pats are the chalk team, but this brings a lot of uncertainty: Even Brandon Bolden got two goal-line rushes last week.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.
Photo via Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
