The Defense and Special Teams Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, defenses with salaries of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (91 teams) have averaged 10.09 points with a +1.91 Plus/Minus and a 58.2 percent Consistency Rating during the regular season this year. Defenses with salaries of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (117 teams) have averaged 9.55 points with a +2.10 Plus/Minus and a 58.1 percent Consistency Rating. With the regular season completed, high-priced defenses averaged more points per game (PPG) on DraftKings but provided more bang for your buck in terms of Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
No team managed double-digit points in the Divisional Round when the Patriots D/ST led the way with nine points. The Pittsburgh and Tennessee D/STs both scored negative points last week.
The Big Two Defenses
- Minnesota ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
- New England ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Purple People Eaters
The Minnesota Vikings head to Philadelphia as five-point road favorites against the Eagles and Nick Foles in a game with an ugly 38.5 point total. Per the Trends tool, defenses favored by one to five points on the road have averaged 8.13 fantasy points per game (PPG) with a +0.76 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 8.05 PPG with a +0.59 Plus/Minus on FanDuel since 2014. Minnesota is the No. 1 rated defense in the Adam Levitan Model for both sites, but have the second-lowest projected sack total (1.9) on the slate. Philadelphia’s offensive line allowed the 12th-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.2 percent) and the Minnesota defense registered the 15th-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.3 percent) during the regular season so this is not exactly a classic recipe for sacks souffle. The Vikings defense has allowed the third-fewest percentage of offensive drives to end in an offensive score (28.3 percent) this season but they also had the 14th-lowest turnover percentage (10.5 percent) in the NFL. If you are banking on the Vikings D/ST putting up a large point total, it will likely have to come from a shutout or a return touchdown from a kickoff or punt. Minnesota shut out the Packers in Week 16 but have not returned a kick or a punt for a touchdown this season.
End Zone Militia
Since Thanksgiving — which is around the time Bill Belichick says you really know what type of team you have — the New England Patriots have registered 33 sacks. Among the four teams remaining in the playoffs, the Jaguars (who finished the regular season with the second most sacks in the league) rank second with 19 sacks and they have played one more game than the Patriots during that time. Philadelphia and Minnesota both have recorded 12 sacks in that stretch. So Hump thinks it’s safe to say that this Patriots team can get after the quarterback. Playing at home as slate-high 7.5 point favorites, the Patriots are a great bet to pile up some sacks points, even against a Jacksonville offensive line that has allowed the fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.4 percent) in the NFL this season. Stacking Dion Lewis, who ranked third in the league with 1,680 kick return yards, and the Patriots D/ST is a no-brainer this week.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
Philadelphia Eagles ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): Like Jacksonville, Minnesota’s offensive line allowed the fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.4) in the league so they pose a potential problem to the Eagles, who finished the year with the 13th-lowest adjusted sack rate (6.3 percent). In fact, Philadelphia has recorded just six sacks in their past four games. They have, however, come up with four fumbles, three interceptions, and a touchdown during those four games.
Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel): The Jaguars were a historic fantasy defense this year, finishing the regular season with the second-most sacks (55) and the second-best adjusted sack rate (9.1 percent) in the NFL. As a result, they have the highest projected sack total (3.9) in our Models. Jacksonville allowed a league-low 24.6 percent of offensive drives to end in a score and were third in the league with a 15.8 turnover percentage. Their elite secondary and pass rush could present serious problems for a Patriots team that prefers to spread opponents out — especially if Tom Brady is limited with a hand injury. That said, Belichick and company tend to attack opponents’ weaknesses, so you may see three Patriots running backs combine for 45 carries this week.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
Jake Elliott ($5,300) — Kicking at home as an underdog with the lowest implied points total on the slate, Elliott is perched atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. That seems odd, as Elliott’s 9.5 median projection and his +1.13 Projected Plus/Minus both rank third on the slate. Kickers playing at home in games with comparable implied team totals have averaged 6.78 FPPG and a -1.15 Plus/Minus with a 38.2 percent Consistency Rating since 2014. In Elliott’s two games that fit this Trend, he has averaged 5.50 FPPG with a -2.69 Plus/Minus and 50.0 percent Consistency. The data suggests you may want to look elsewhere for your kicker this week.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Stephen Gostowski ($5,000): Gostkowski has our highest projected Plus/Minus (+2.92) and median points projection (11.2) on the slate and is the No. 1 kicker in every single one of our Pro Models. The Patriots are currently implied to score 27 points at home — Gostkowski has averaged 10.50 PPG with a +2.10 Plus/Minus in comparable conditions since 2014.
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Good luck, and be sure to research the Conference Championship games for yourself with our Tools and Models.
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