The college football season enters Week 5 with four high-profile Big 12 matchups in DraftKings’ main slate. The afternoon slate kicks off at noon ET and features 10 games:
- Louisiana at Alabama (-49), Over/Under: 68 – noon ET
- Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-21), Over/Under: 59.5 – noon pm ET
- Oklahoma State (-17) at Kansas, Over/Under: 62 – noon pm ET
- Syracuse at Clemson (-25.5), Over/Under: 65.5 – noon pm ET
- West Virginia (-3.5) at Texas Tech, Over/Under: 73 – noon pm ET
- Tennessee at Georgia (-30.5), Over/Under: 53 – 3:30 pm ET
- Baylor at Oklahoma (-23.5), Over/Under: 68 – 3:30 pm ET
- Texas (-8.5) at Kansas State, Over/Under: 48.5 – 3:30 pm ET
- Pittsburgh at UCF (-13), Over/Under: 64.5 – 3:30 pm ET
- Purdue (-3.5) at Nebraska, Over/Under: 56.5 – 3:30 pm ET
Check out The Action Network’s Live Odds page for line updates.
Game of the Slate: West Virginia (-3.5) at Texas Tech
West Virginia faces a Texas Tech team this week that has the offensive firepower to go toe-to-toe with the Mountaineers. The Mountaineers offense is led by Heisman-hopeful quarterback Will Grier, along with two All-conference receivers in David Sills V and Gary Jennings Jr., both of whom deserve strong roster consideration this week.
Texas Tech has an elite offense of its own, led by freshman quarterback Alan Bowman, who leads the FBS in passing yards this season. At his disposal, the Red Raiders feature budding star wide receiver Antoine Wesley, who is second in the FBS in receiving yards per game (127.8). The Red Raiders are loaded at their skill positions and offer excellent DFS value in Ja’Deion High, KeSean Carter and Zach Austin.
This matchup features the highest Vegas total on the slate with a tight 3.5-point spread and two teams both hungry to separate themselves in the loaded Big 12. Expect fireworks on both sides in this epic offensive showdown.
Quarterbacks
Will Grier (West Virginia): $10,700 DraftKings; $10,600 FanDuel
Grier has started his 2018 Heisman campaign in convincing fashion, throwing for 1,117 yards and 14 touchdowns in just three games. He’s averaging 372.3 yards, 4.7 touchdowns and an impressive 35.33 DraftKings points per game. The Mountaineers rank sixth in the FBS in Offensive S&P+, third in passing offense and eighth in total offense.
True to Big 12 stereotypes, the Red Raiders are not exactly a defensive powerhouse, ranking 90th in Defensive S&P+ this season. Grier has a median expected outcome of 300-plus passing yards and three-plus touchdowns based on his career production. He has a fantastic fantasy outlook this week against the Red Raiders.
Kellen Mond (Texas A&M): $9,200 DraftKings; N/A FanDuel
After winning the starting quarterback position over Nick Starkel this offseason, Mond has quietly led the Texas A&M offense to a top-15 ranking in Offensive S&P+ this season. The Aggies played exceptionally well in their loss to Clemson, with Mond throwing for 430 yards and three touchdowns in that game. For the season, Mond has put together a 1020-7-2 passing line, which is a marked improvement in efficiency from his freshman season. He’s also rushed 43 times for 201 yards and four touchdowns, which drastically improves his fantasy floor. He’s averaging 28.48 DraftKings points per game this season and should carve up a mediocre-at-best Arkansas team this week.
Eric Dungey (Syracuse): $6,300 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel
There’s no doubt that Clemson’s defense is one of the best in the country, but Dungey and the Syracuse offense are far too good to justify his insanely low DraftKings salary. Dungey is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, rushing 51 times for 354 yards and four touchdowns already this season. On top of that, he’s added 763 yards and nine touchdowns through the air. Syracuse has looked impressive against Florida State and UConn the past two weeks and is being criminally underrated against Clemson on the road.
While it’s appropriate to temper expectations for Dungey due to Clemson’s prolific defense, he still possesses elite rushing upside that should keep his fantasy floor reasonably high. At $6,300, he is a phenomenal punt option at quarterback this week.
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Running Backs
Travis Etienne (Clemson): $7,400 DraftKings; $9,900 FanDuel
Etienne started slowly in Clemson’s first two games but has seriously turned it on in the past two weeks. Against Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech, Etienne has earned 27 carries for 284 yards and three touchdowns, bringing his season rushing total to 46-392-5. Compare that with Justice Hill, the most expensive running back on the slate, who has put together a 46-388-5 rushing line this season. Both running backs have similar workloads in their offenses, but Etienne is a whopping $1,700 cheaper this week against Syracuse. Especially with freshman Trevor Lawrence making his first start for the Tigers, I expect Etienne to benefit from a robust workload and big-play potential as a receiver.
Pooka Williams Jr. (Kansas): $6,100 DraftKings; $8,900 FanDuel
Williams has been a revelation for the Jayhawks this season. The impressive freshman has put together a 47-377-3 rushing total through three games and is one of Pro Football Focus’ top-rated freshmen in the country. He’s averaging an astounding 8.1 yards per carry and commands the lion’s share of the Jayhawks’ offensive production.
Kansas’ opponent, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, possess an impressive defensive line that excels in pressuring the quarterback. The Jayhawks should exploit this by running a heavy dosage of draws, bubbles and screens for Williams, who particularly excels in space because of his lateral quickness. In a game in which Kansas is a 17-point home underdog, the Jayhawks should try to control clock with Williams on the ground. Even if the Jayhawks play from behind and are forced to pass, I still like Williams’ upside as a receiver in this game.
Tre Watson (Texas): $5,800 DraftKings; N/A FanDuel
Watson is the Longhorns’ leading rusher this season, running 63 times for 256 yards and a touchdown. Texas is favored by 8.5 points on the road against Kansas State and will likely employ a conservative offensive game plan to attack the Wildcats’ below-average defense. With fellow Texas running back Keaontay Ingram hampered by an injured hip, Watson could see above-average usage in a low Vegas total grind-fest against Kansas State.
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Wide Receivers
Marquise Brown (Oklahoma): $7,700 DraftKings; $9,800 FanDuel
Let’s get this out of the way: Yes, “Hollywood” Brown didn’t record a single catch last week against Army. Then again, QB Kyler Murray threw just 15 passes in the entire game, completing 11. Army ground up clock at an obscene clip in that matchup, racking up 44:41 in time of possession. I’m willing to dismiss Brown’s no-show last week due to such limited opportunity.
Brown remains one of the top receivers in the country, boasting a 19-412-3 receiving line over the Sooners’ first three games. He’s averaging a ridiculous 21.7 yards per reception, which ranks 18th in the FBS. He has the highest upside of any wide receiver in this slate and commands a dominant share of Oklahoma’s targets on offense. With the impressive Murray at the helm, I have faith Brown will rebound with a big performance this week against Baylor.
Isaiah Zuber (Kansas State): $5,800 DraftKings; N/A FanDuel
Kansas State has completed 54 passes through four games this season, and Zuber has caught 24 of them. For those doing the math at home, that’s a 44.4% completions market share. No other Wildcats receiver is even close. Zuber has converted those 24 catches into 356 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
The Longhorns are vulnerable in their secondary, allowing 245.3 passing yards per game this season. That ranks 91st in the FBS. With the Wildcats playing as home underdogs in this contest, I expect Zuber to be heavily involved in their offensive game plan. His target volume gives him a high fantasy floor this week.
Zach Austin (Texas Tech): $3,400 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel
Austin is the starting “H” receiver for the Red Raiders and had a breakout game against Oklahoma State last week, catching seven passes for 69 yards. Texas Tech has the No. 1 passing offense in the FBS, making it hard to pass on one of the Red Raiders’ starting receivers at this low price point.
Texas Tech is set up for another Big 12 shootout with West Virginia this week. The Red Raiders boast the fifth-best average time of possession (36:00) in the FBS and rank second in the country in plays per game (92.5). Considering this game’s high total, frenetic pace of play and scoring upside, Austin has nice upside as a budget receiving option against the Mountaineers.
DFS Stacks
Oklahoma
After a couple subpar performances in recent weeks, the Sooners offense should return to elite form against a vulnerable Baylor defense.
- QB Kyler Murray
- RB Trey Sermon
- WR Brown
- WR CeeDee Lamb
Clemson
Clemson named highly touted freshman Trevor Lawrence its starting quarterback this week, and he should add a dynamic passing threat to its already-efficient offense against Syracuse.
- QB Lawrence
- RB Etienne
- WR Tee Higgins
- WR Hunter Renfrow
Syracuse
After defeating Clemson last season, the Orange should come into Death Valley with confidence in their stellar up-tempo offense.
- QB Dungey
- RB Moe Neal
- RB Dontae Strickland
- WR Jamal Custis
- WR Nykeim Johnson
Photo Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: Will Grier
