We don’t mean to alarm anybody, but we’re already in the final week of October. That means we only have one month left of the regular season and then Championship Weekend before we head into bowl season. While there’s plenty to get excited about in the weeks to come (looking at you, 12-team playoff field), we’re focused on the here and now. Week 9 features a few lopsided spreads, some intriguing fantasy matchups, and undoubtedly some unexpected upsets to stay on the 2024 theme.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Hoover (TCU Horned Frogs): $8,500 DraftKings
There are some hefty-priced quarterbacks leading Week 9’s main slate, but the net fantasy difference between the highest salaries and a few mid-range options is negligible. With that, we’re prioritizing a couple of overlooked quarterbacks that could perform just as well, if not better, than the premium players. Josh Hoover sits among those as our preferred signal-caller on the main slate.
In his second season with the TCU Horned Frogs, Hoover has been one of the most reliable fantasy quarterbacks. The Texas native is completing 66.4% of his passes for 324.3 passing yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game. On average, that works out to 24.6 fantasy points per game, but we’ve seen Hoover reach as high as 36.08 earlier in the season. We’re expecting him closer to the latter against a porous Texas Tech Red Raiders pass defense.
Every quarterback who plays against Texas Tech thrives. So far this season, opponents are averaging 269.3 passing yards per game against the Red Raiders, but that number looks much worse when we tease out inferior matchups. The last three teams to face Texas Tech have averaged 333.7 passing yards per game, underscoring their completely ineffective play on defense.
This intra-state matchup is going to turn into a track meet, and DFS punters should be ready to capitalize. Hoover has one of the highest ceilings on the board but comes at a discounted rate. Playing at Amon G. Carter Stadium as -6.5 favorites, we expect the TCU pivot to deliver one the best fantasy performances on the main slate.
Jacurri Brown (UCF Knights): $7,000 DraftKings
We are staying on theme and backing another Big 12 quarterback in a pivotal conference showdown. The UCF Knights host the unbeaten BYU Cougars on Saturday afternoon. After last week’s scare versus the Oklahoma State Cowboys, the Cougars suddenly don’t look so unbeatable. The Cowboys exposed some holes in their defense, and Jacurri Brown can replicate that performance on Saturday.
Brown took over the Knights offense in Week 7, and the early returns have been somewhat promising. The dual-threat quarterback threw for over 200 yards in his first start against the Cincinnati Bearcats, albeit with a much more subdued throwing performance against the stout Iowa State Cyclones last time out. However, running the ball is Brown’s best fantasy asset. In two starts, the sophomore has 238 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries.
BYU has had a relatively weak schedule, and they were caught off balance by a struggling Cowboys offense last week. Alan Bowman, who is about as stationary as a mountain, managed 19 rushing yards on three attempts last week. Prior to that, Garret Rangel went off for 77 yards on five carries before a collarbone injury forced him to the sidelines.
The Cougars’ most prominent weakness is Brown’s biggest strength. We expect him to wield that advantage unmercifully on the main slate, vastly overachieving relative to his diminished salary. If you’re looking to zig when other people zag, Brown is the guy to set your roster apart.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Makhi Hughes (Tulane Green Wave): $7,400 DraftKings
We’ve been waiting a long time for the Tulane Green Wave to make an appearance on the main slate. The 5-2 AAC competitors have re-asserted themselves as a top offensive power with their most recent efforts, and Makhi Hughes has been a big part of that renaissance. We’re expecting the power running back to reach his fantasy ceiling in Tulane’s conference showdown against the North Texas Mean Green.
Hughes is coming off his best performance of the season. He ran for 140 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries last week, adding one 29-yard reception for another score. That represents his third 100-yard rushing effort over his last four games, a span that includes six touchdowns. Hughes will have another chance to feast against a Mean Green defense that has been vulnerable against the run.
On the season, North Texas is giving up an average of 175.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 98th out of 134 FBS schools. But somehow, that benchmark has gone higher over their more recent sample. The last three teams to take on the Mean Green have torched them for an average of 201.3 yards per game. Included in that is last week’s 207-yard effort from the Memphis Tigers, which saw Mario Anderson go off for 183 yards and four touchdowns.
It’s not inconceivable that Hughes has an equally dominant performance on Saturday. Tulane’s running back has been unstoppable all season, and as we’ve seen, North Texas has no intention of getting in running backs’ ways. Hughes leads our median and ceiling projections and is a must-roster in any format.
Daris Taylor (Minnesota Golden Gophers): $8,000 DraftKings
Presumably still buzzing off their Week 6 triumph over the USC Trojans, the Minnesota Golden Gophers take to the field for a pivotal Big Ten battle against the Maryland Terrapins in Week 9. The Golden Gophers need to make the most of Saturday’s encounter, and they will rely on Darius Taylor to lead them to glory.
Taylor is the spark plug in Minnesota’s multi-pronged backfield. The sophomore leads the team in virtually every rushing category, pacing the team with 89 carries, 432 rushing yards, and six touchdowns. Still, he separates himself from the rest of the FBS pack with his top-end receiving metrics. Taylor has been targeted 37 times this season, hauling in 22 catches for 223 yards. Those complementary metrics have bolstered his fantasy production, with Taylor averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game.
We’ve got Taylor earmarked for significant progression against a beatable Maryland defense. Minnesota’s running back mustered just 30 yards on 16 carries last time out, salvaging his fantasy performance with a pair of touchdowns. Naturally, we should see an increase in Taylor’s production, starting in Week 9’s home tilt versus the Terrapins.
Maryland has an inviting defense that’s given up 417 or more yards in two of his last three. While they typically stack up well against the rush, their rush defense isn’t impenetrable. Moreover, Taylor will be a primary factor in the passing game and will be able to take advantage of the Terrapins’ more prominent weakness. With an extra week to prepare, we expect Taylor to bounce back with a slate-leading effort.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tez Johnson (Oregon Ducks): $7,200 DraftKings
The top-ranked Oregon Ducks head into Week 9 with a massive target on their backs. Oregon remains one of the few undefeated teams left in the country, continuing to separate itself from the pack with its vaunted offense. Try as they may, there’s nothing the Illinois Fighting Illini can do to slow down Tez Johnson and the Ducks’ passing attack.
While there is no shortage of elite performers in the Ducks’ receivers corps, Johnso leads the group by a wide margin. The senior is the pace-setter in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, accumulating 57, 536, and 7, respectively. Further, his usage metrics support that he’s due for a breakout performance against Illinois. Johnson has been targeted 46 times over the past four games, representing a robust 34.3% target share. More importantly, he hauled in 36 of those passes for a 78.3% catch rate.
Illinois is solid defensively, but they haven’t been immune to the pass. Over their last four games, the Fighting Illini have allowed four different pass-catchers to eclipse 83 receiving yards. Further, they give up a concerning 62.9% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks, playing into Johnson’s strength as a high-volume receiver.
This is Oregon’s opportunity to prove they are the best team in the country, and we expect them to make the most of it. Led by Johnson, the Ducks’ passing game will lead them to victory.
Tre Harris (Ole Miss Rebels): $9,600 DraftKings
When you have an opportunity to roster Tre Harris on the main slate, you take it. He leads the Ole Miss Rebels into an SEC showdown versus the Oklahoma Sooners in what should be a one-sided affair.
Not surprisingly, Harris is priced as the top receiver on the main slate, and deservingly so. He is the nation’s top pass-catcher, going off for 987 receiving yards through the first seven games of the season. That represents an average of 141.0 receiving yards per game and 16.7 yards per reception. Harris has been at his best over his last four games, going north of 175 yards twice while accounting for four of his six touchdowns on the season.
Oklahoma’s tenure as an SEC program is off to an unfavorable start. The Sooners have seen their passing yards allowed increase as they wander into their SEC schedule. Over their previous three, opponents are up to 249.0 passing yards per game. Predictably, they’ve been at their worst on the road this season, giving up a meaty 283.5 passing yards per game.
A questionable designation potentially hampers his outlook, but all signs point to Harris being on the field on Saturday. We are forecasting another elite performance against the Sooners, with Harris easily reaching his ceiling at home.
Jack Bech (TCU Horned Frogs): $8,000 DraftKings
There is no better stacking option this week than the TCU Horned Frogs. With Josh Hoover projected to be one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of the day, we’re also anticipating a surge in fantasy production from Jack Bech.
The Horned Frogs wideout has been Hoover’s safety blanket all year. Bech leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns, with even more solid complementary metrics. His 17.8 yards per reception is the second-best mark on the Horned Frogs, while his tidy 71.2% catch rate is second-best among any receiver with more than seven receptions.
Bech has seen a modest decline in fantasy production over the past couple of weeks, but he’s projected for a substantial improvement against Texas Tech. After totaling 497 receiving yards from Weeks 3 to 5, the senior has mustered just 101 over his last two outings.
Ongoing reliance on the passing game supports that Bech is a natural progression candidate, and we are anticipating big strides against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is completely out of its element when it comes to defending the pass, allowing Bech to reach his fantasy ceiling on the main slate.
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