There is a bevy of top 25 matchups in Week 5, most of which are captured on the DraftKings main slate Saturday, leaving DFS players with some hard decisions to make. Nevertheless, we’re here to filter through the information, providing analysis and insights into which players give bettors the best chance of maximizing their lineups.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Bryce Young (Alabama Crimson Tide): $9,900 DraftKings
Alabama Crimson Tide signal caller Bryce Young has improved his passing yards weekly since the start of the season, culminating with a 385-yard performance against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Although that could potentially set him up for a letdown against the Arkansas Razorbacks, we still like Young to reach his fantasy ceiling in this SEC matchup.
Young continues to make good decisions with the football, completing 68.6% of his passes while throwing just two interceptions, both of which came in a blowout win against the UL Monroe Warhawks. Otherwise, Young has been exceptional, throwing for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions in his other three outings.
The Razorbacks have been vulnerable against the pass all season, ranking 103rd in the nation in passing yards allowed, with an average of 284.0 per game. That sets Young up for success as the junior looks to maintain his upward trend Saturday against the Razorbacks.
Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma Sooners): $9,300 DraftKings
The Oklahoma Sooners dropped their first loss of the season in Week 4, despite Dillon Gabriel’s best efforts. Gabriel threw for a season-best 330 yards and four touchdowns but still came up short against the Kansas State Wildcats. He’ll have a chance to replicate that Saturday against the TCU Horned Frogs.
Similar to Young, the concern is that Gabriel peaked last week, setting himself up for a down outing against TCU. However, the Horned Frogs have been one of the worst defensive units in the FBS ranks, allowing an average of 412.0 yards per game, 303.5 of which come through the air.
Gabriel has yet to throw an interception this season, tossing 11 touchdowns while completing 66.7% of his passes. The Sooners won’t accept another defeat and will unleash Gabriel against TCU as they look to get back in the win column.
Taulia Tagavailoa (Maryland Terrapins): $6,800 DraftKings
Taulia Tagavailoa comes at a discounted rate as his Maryland Terrapins host the 2-2 Michigan State Spartans. The Terrapins enter the Big Ten matchup as -7.5 favorites and should see big things from their junior pivot.
Part of what’s contributing to the down price on Tagavailoa is the rib injury that could impact his participation in Week 5. Still, if he’s cleared to play, Tagavailoa will have a chance to shine against the Spartans. Michigan State ranks in the bottom half of the country, giving up 265.3 passing yards per game. Moreover, they’ve allowed 665 yards through the air over the last couple of weeks, 397 of which came against Michael Penix and Washington State.
Tagavailoa is in an ideal bounce-back spot Saturday against the Spartans. The junior was forced to leave early in Week 4, but if his injuries have resolved enough for him to play, Tagavailoa is the best value on the board.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Mohamed Ibrahim (Minnesota Golden Gophers): $9,500 DraftKings
Every week could be an ode to Mohamed Ibrahim, but even more so against the Purdue Boilermakers this week. The 21st-ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers enter the Big Ten matchup as -12.5 chalk and have devoutly run the ball all season. That’s not expected to change in Week 5.
The Golden Gophers run the ball 68.9% of the time, sixth-most in the college ranks, with Ibrahim earning the lion’s share of those carries. The senior has rushed the ball at least 21 times in all four contests, leading the rushing yard total each week. More impressively, Ibrahim has surpassed the century mark each time out, for an average of 141.8 rushing yards per game.
The Boilermakers aren’t particularly effective at stopping the run, allowing 137.3 rushing yards per game. That average is likely to climb as Ibrahim, and the Golden Gophers run all over Purdue en route to a 5-0 record.
Deuce Vaughn (Kansas State Wildcats): $7,200 DraftKings
Week after week, our projections continue to rate Deuce Vaughn highly. A distinction that is not yet afforded to him in terms of DFS salary. Nevertheless, again we like Vaughn to be the primary offensive contributor as the Kansas State Wildcats take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Wildcats rush the ball nearly as often as the Golden Gophers, calling running plays 61.2% of the time. Like Ibrahim, Vaughn is the primary rusher, toting the ball 87 times for 468 yards, surpassing 100-yards in three of four contests. Still, Vaughn hasn’t found pay dirt in either of the past two weeks, despite carrying the ball 45 times. We’re expecting him to bust out of that slump against the Red Raiders.
Our algorithm shows Vaughn is the pre-eminent running back available on Saturday’s main slate. The junior leads our median and ceiling projections and could end the day with the best fantasy point total. Rostering Vaughn affords DFS players some flexibility with high-cost quarterback and wide receiver options.
Jirehl Brock (Iowa State Cyclones): $5,400 DraftKings
We’re highlighting a genuine bargain with our third pick at running back. Jirehl Brock is the feature back for the Iowa State Cyclones, adding value via the passing game as well, but carries a paltry $5,400 on the main slate. The junior running back should easily exceed his implied value and could be an x-factor for placing in tournaments.
Brock came out of the gates flying, rushing for 100 or more yards in his first two games of the season. He’s put up more modest totals since then, going for 73 and 76 rushing yards in each of the past two weeks, although he has just 21 carries over that stretch. Further, Brock has hauled in three or more receptions in each of the past three weeks, illustrating his value on offense in any capacity.
The Kansas Jayhawks cannot stop the run, giving up an average of 153.0 yards per game in FBS matchups. Worse, they have given up the most yards and second-most points among Big 12 schools this season, with no hope of improving those laughable metrics against the Cyclones.
CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Xavier Hutchinson (Iowa State Cyclones): $7,800 DraftKings
Another Cyclones player poised for a big performance is wide receiver, Xavier Hutchinson. Through four games, Hutchinson has 36 receptions and 403 receiving yards, putting him on pace for his best season yet.
Hutchinson is a high-volume guy, hauling in eight or more receptions each time out this season. Additionally, he has a knack for finding the end zone, crossing the goal line five times this season with touchdowns in three of four contests. What truly illustrates Hutchinson’s fantasy ceiling is his target share, as the senior is targetted on 36.0% of throws this season, hitting double-digit targets in every outing.
As bad as Kansas is against the run, they’re equally disappointing against the pass. Hutchinson and Brock are a formidable option if you’re looking for a good stacking combo.
Marvin Mims (Oklahoma Sooners): $8,500 DraftKings
If Sooners quarterback Gabriel puts together the performance we’re expecting from him, surely Marvin Mims will get in on the action. Mims has been a primary target for Gabriel all season and should reach his fantasy ceiling against a questionable Horned Frogs secondary.
Mims has led the Sooners in targets in three of four games this season, combining for a 21.7% target share. His marquee outing came against the Kent State Golden Flashes, a game in which he went off for 163 receiving yards and three scores. He may replicate those numbers against TCU, who have been only marginally more effective at stopping the pass.
His top performance notwithstanding, Mims has been an effective fantasy option throughout the season. The junior wideout has gone for 81 or more yards in three of four contests, breaking off catch and runs of at least 38 yards in all four outings. There are gaping holes in the Horned Frogs’ defense, and Mims will expose them en route to reaching his fantasy ceiling.
Charlie Jones (Purdue Boilermakers): $6,400 DraftKings
The Boilermakers will have their hands full trying to contain an efficient Golden Gophers’ offense, forcing them to play to their strengths as they try and keep pace with their Big Ten counterparts. That should lead to big things from Purdue wide receiver Charlie Jones.
Purdue has been a pass-happy offense, with Jones developing chemistry with whoever is under center. Aidan O’Connell has been the primary quarterback but suffered an injury against the Syracuse Orange. Although his status against Minnesota is up in the air, Austin Burton showed that he’s an adequate replacement and will continue to rely on Jones in the passing game.
Burton started in Week 4, looking Jones’ way 11 times, including a pair of red zone passes that resulted in touchdowns. Those were Jones’ sixth and seventh scores this season, representing 63.6% of Purdue’s passing touchdowns this season.
Jones has been a safety blanket and will be a prominent fixture in the Boilermakers’ game plan on Saturday.
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