What a week to be a college football fan! There is no shortage of high-profile matchups in Week 5, with many of those showdowns falling into the DFS main slate. Already, wins have become so crucial for playoff contenders. One more loss or conference misstep could cost teams their potential postseason berths (we’re looking at you Notre Dame, USC, and Michigan). That means the stakes only get higher from here until the end of the season, and programs continue to battle their way up the standings.
We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Hoover (TCU Horned Frogs): $8,500 DraftKings
While some teams continue to fight for their playoff lives, others have already been eliminated. After claiming their first nine-win season since 2007, the Kansas Jayhawks have faltered early against the most winnable part of their schedule. Surely, that downward trajectory will continue as they host the TCU Horned Frogs in their second Big 12 game of the season. As a result, we’re expecting big things from TCU pivot Josh Hoover.
The sophomore quarterback has been sensational in his first full season as the starter. Already, Hoover is completing 68.5% of his passes with an 11-2 touchdown to interception ratio. Most impressively, he’s surpassed 353 passing yards in all but one of his starts, a Week 2 showdown against FCS Long Island that he didn’t finish. That builds off his solid finish to the 2023 campaign, in which he eclipsed 300 passing yards in each of his last four games.
The Jayhawks defense held up reasonably well against some mediocre offenses to open the season, but they were put to the test last week. Kansas gave up 443 yards of offense to the West Virginia Mountaineers, with 295 yards coming through the air. Garrett Greene hasn’t stood out as the most elite passer in the Big 12, leaving major concerns regarding Kansas’ ability to limit Hoover and the Horned Frogs.
Hoover ranks among a handful of quarterbacks expected to lead the way on Saturday’s main slate. But we like his ceiling better than the rest. He’s a high-volume passer who should have success in getting the ball downfield against a beatable Kansas side. We expect Hoover to take full advantage.
Miller Moss (USC Trojans): $7,300 DraftKings
The Wisconsin Badgers aren’t the powerhouse they once were. That’s going to have a negative impact on their outlook throughout the 2024 campaign as they welcome some blue-blood programs into the Big Ten. The USC Trojans stand among those, ready to exploit the Badgers’ suspect defense.
Led by Mason Miller on offense, the Trojans came up short in last week’s clash to the Michigan Wolverines. While it wasn’t his best outing of the season, Miller still delivered a standout performance. The junior threw for 283 yards and three touchdowns, albeit with a below-average 54.9% completion percentage. Still, that effort came at the Big House against the defending National Champions, leaving little doubt in his ability to deliver a more impactful performance at home against the Badgers.
We’ve seen the best Miller has to offer against quality competition this year, and we expect him to get back to that level post-haste. The California native burned the LSU Tigers for 378 yards on 27-for-36 passing in the season opener, following that up with another sturdy performance against the Utah State Aggies. The Trojans’ signal-caller completed a tidy 70.0% of his throws en route to 229 yards and a touchdown in a game that was quickly out of reach.
The Badgers have struggled to contain mediocre competition before imploding against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Camp Randall last time out. Miller’s ceiling is superior in Week 5, and we expect him to exceed the implied value of his salary against Wisconsin.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
RJ Harvey (UCF Knights): $8,900 DraftKings
RJ Harvey endeared himself to DFS punters at the end of last season, rushing for 100 or more yards in six of the last seven games of the season. Somehow, the UCF Knights running back has set the bar even higher to kick off his senior season, and he’s finally available on the main slate.
Harvey has an unforgiving running style that will batter the Colorado Buffaloes defense. Already this season, he’s rushed for 448 yards on 59 touches, for a robust 7.6 yards per carry. As expected, Harvey has eclipsed 126 rushing yards in all three of his starts while recording multiple touchdowns each time out. Moreover, the Knights are coming off a bye, ensuring Harvey’s in peak form heading into their Big 12 clash at home.
Much has been made of Colorado’s rebuilt program, but all of their success lies on the offensive side of the ball. Defensively, we still have major concerns about their ability to stop opponents. The Baylor Bears put up 166 rushing yards against the Buffs last week, becoming the fourth straight team to surpass the century mark. In total, opponents are averaging 148.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, putting Colorado in the bottom half of the FBS in both categories.
We’re paying a premium for Harvey, but he’s worth the investment against the Buffaloes. A focal point of the Knights’ offensive attack, we expect Harvey to reach his elite ceiling in Week 5.
Jaydon Blue (Texas Longhorns): $7,400 DraftKings
Running the ball has been a strength of the Texas Longhorns’ program for as long as they’ve been around, and that’s the case again in 2024. The team features two top-end running backs in an equally split workload. Nevertheless, we like Jaydon Blue’s outlook against the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a game that should rely heavily on the run.
As inferred by the spread, this one could get out of hand early. The Longhorns enter Saturday’s tilt as decisive -37.5 chalk versus their SEC counterparts. Consequently, we’re expecting them to turn to the run more frequently as they control the clock and dictate the pace of the game. Of course, that’s been their strength throughout the early part of the 2024 season already. Texas has put up 51 or more points in three of its four outings while never giving up more than 12 points.
Blue has a slight advantage in terms of workload relative to Jerrick Gibson. Blue has three more carries and has been a more regular contributor to the passing game. His 10 receptions and 19 targets out-paces Gibson by eight and 17, respectively, giving Blue the higher ceiling. That’s reflected in his fantasy totals, with Blue putting up 40.7 fantasy points in Week 4 and averaging 23.7 fantasy points per game.
Week 5’s clash between the Longhorns and Bulldogs is testing the upper boundary of how high an SEC spread can get. And that’s a direct reflection of Texas’ offensive abilities. We’re expecting them to lean into Blue throughout the contest, ensuring the Longhorns’ running back maximizes his fantasy contributions.
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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tai Felton (Maryland Terrapins): $7,700 DraftKings
Points will be scored in Saturday’s showdown between the Maryland Terrapins and Indiana Hoosiers. This Big Ten thriller features one of the higher totals on the main slate, and both teams can deliver top-end performances. Tai Felton stands as a titan in that matchup, bolstering the Terrapins’ aerial assault.
Felton is a threat every time he steps onto the gridiron. Through four games, the senior has totaled 603 receiving yards on 41 receptions and 55 targets. More impressively, he’s over 400 yards clear of the next closest Maryland pass-catcher while nearly doubling Kaden Prather’s 21 catches. His 37.2% target share also rates as one of the best among college football receivers.
Indiana’s defensive metrics stand up right now, but they have yet to be truly tested. Their fiercest competition was a 1-2 UCLA Bruins squad, and they’ve otherwise faced lower-end Group of 5 programs and an FCS also-ran. As such, they will be tested by a dangerous Maryland side that averages 471.8 yards per game, 308.8 of which come via the pass.
Felton is a fantasy gold mine. The Terrapins wide receiver averages 36.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t fallen below 29.7 in any of his four starts this season. He’ll maintain that elite standard with another strong showing in Week 5, ending the day as one of the top fantasy performers.
Jack Bech (TCU Horned Frogs): $7,200 DraftKings
Our correlated approach comes in TCU’s contest versus the Jayhawks. As noted, we’re expecting Josh Hoover to rank among the best quarterbacks on the main slate, and he’ll turn to a familiar target to pad his fantasy stats. Jack Bech has been the Horned Frogs’ best receiver, and the imposing pass-catcher will shine at Arrowhead Stadium.
Bech leads the Horned Frogs in nearly every pass-catching category. His 516 yards, 25 receptions, and four scores are all team bests, while his 32 targets fall two short of Savion Williams for the team lead. But we can’t look past his NFL-caliber 78.1% catch rate or 20.6 yards per reception, both of which are best among receivers with more than one grab.
Bech’s salary progression is the clearest indicator of his fantasy ceiling. He started the season in the $4,000 range and was quickly bumped up to $7,200 following a string of slate-leading performances. Surpassing 139 yards and 29.6 fantasy points has become the norm for the senior, and that’s what we expect from him against the Jayhawks.
Will Pauling (Wisconsin Badgers): $4,800 DraftKings
We’re making a true value play with our final selection, highlighting Will Pauling as an underrated receiver to target on the main slate. Pauling has been a staple of the Badgers’ passing game, which will be featured heavily as Wisconsin tries to keep pace with the Trojans in Saturday’s Big Ten affair.
Pauling is the featured wideout on offense. The junior is the first look in Tyler Van Dyke’s progressions, absorbing a mind-numbing 46.4% target share. More importantly, he’s made the most of those looks, hauling in 19 of 26 passes thrown his way for 191 yards and a touchdown.
We’re using last week’s loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide as a blueprint for what to expect from Pauling when the Badgers are trailing. In that loss, he grabbed nine of 11 targets for 83 yards and his only touchdown of the season. A similar workload is anticipated on the main slate. Wisconsin will likely find itself in a deficit from the outset against USC, necessitating more involvement from Pauling and the passing attack.
For now, DFS players can roster Pauling at a discounted rate. But after another strong performance on Saturday, we’re expecting a salary bump in weeks to come. He’s a top value and solid fantasy performer who can turn the tide in any tournament or format.
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