This is it. Championship weekend for all the marbles.
We’re left with one last main slate to break down before we head into bowl season. The Georgia Bulldogs are all but guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff, but there’s still lots left to play for among several other teams vying for a chance at the National Championship. The Michigan Wolverines have the least obstructed path of the contenders, entering the Big Ten Championship Game as meaty -16.5 chalk. The TCU Horned Frogs and USC Trojans also need to take care of business if they hope to be included in the final four.
College football is new to FantasyLabs this season. Inside our Player Models, you’ll be able to utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups for your DFS contests.
Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.
Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Drake Maye (North Carolina Tar Heels): $8,500 DraftKings
North Carolina Tar Heels signal-caller Drake Maye has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season, and that’s reflected in his salary for championship weekend. Maye has the highest salary among pivots, although his projections validate the lofty price.
Maye has accumulated the fourth-most yards and touchdown passes this season, culminating with the ninth-best quarterback rating. But Maye’s fantasy value is elevated by his ability to gather yards on the ground. The senior ranks fifth in the eighth among FBS quarterbacks in rushing yards, scoring six touchdowns on the season, three of which have come over the past four weeks.
The South Carolina Gamecocks exposed cracks in the Clemson Tigers’ defensive armor last week, which Maye and the Tar Heels could further exploit. We’re anticipating a star showing from the freshman pivot in the ACC Championship Game as Maye lives up to his elite projections.
DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson Tigers): $7,300 DraftKings
The Tigers may not be able to corral North Carolina, but they will be able to respond offensively. DJ Uiagalelei has had the Tigers marching all season, and there’s little the Tar Heels can do to stop them.
Objectively, North Carolina’s defense was the worst in the conference. The Tar Heels allowed an average of 442.7 yards per game, last in the ACC. Like Maye, Uiagelelei can beat opponents through the air or with his feet which is a tremendous advantage against one of the worst units in the nation.
Uiagalelei was stymied last week, posting the third-worst quarterback rating of his collegiate career. However, the junior pivot was trending up in his three games prior, completing 68.3% of his passes, throwing four touchdowns, and rushing in two more. We’re expecting him to get back on track against a penetrable Tar Heels defense.
The total for the ACC finale is set at 63.5 and climbing. Both quarterbacks will have their offenses ready to roll, and we can’t look past Uiagalelei’s value as an affordable option with one of the best ceilings on the board.
Max Duggan (TCU Horned Frogs): $8,100 DraftKings
Nobody has had an answer for Max Duggan and the TCU Horned Frogs offense. Duggan has led the Horned Frogs to the sixth-best scoring offense against FBS teams and had one of his best outings against the Kansas State Wildcats earlier in the year. Based on our projections, Duggan should replicate that performance on Saturday.
When these teams met in Week 8, Duggan threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns. He finished that game with his second-best rating of the year, helping TCU to a 10-point win. That was one of seven times this year where Duggan threw for at least 280 yards; however, he has maintained that form towards the end of the season. The Iowa native has completed 69.5% of his passes for 539 yards over his last two games.
Duggan has thrown multiple touchdowns in all but three games this season, getting intercepted just three times. We continue to see exceptional performances from the senior, who has a 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio over his last five games. Additionally, he’s one of only five quarterbacks in the country who has more than 200 passing attempts and three or fewer interceptions.
K-State didn’t have an answer for Duggan earlier this year, and we’re not expecting them to shut the door this time out. Duggan is worth the investment in what should be one of the weekend’s best games.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Deuce Vaughn (Kansas State Wildcats): $7,200 DraftKings
The Wildcats have made a name for themselves this year, relying on their running game to set them apart. They won’t abandon course in the Big 12 Championship, meaning Deuce Vaughn is poised for another top-tier performance.
This year, Vaughn has been an offensive catalyst, serving as a three-down back for the tenth-ranked Wildcats. Chris Klieman has unlocked Vaughn’s fullest potential, giving him free rein in the backfield while also using him as a pass-catching back. Consequently, the junior running back has gone off for at least 150 yards from scrimmage in four of his previous five games, finding paydirt six times over that stretch.
TCU’s strength is on offense, and we’ve seen lesser running backs torch the Big 12 leaders. Last week, the Iowa State Cyclones had two players go north of 70 rushing yards, the tenth time in nine games in which an opposing running back has run for at least 70 yards.
The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 155 rushing yards in five of their past six games, including 158 the last time these teams met. Vaughn remains a prominent fixture on offense and could have a season-best effort on Saturday.
Donovan Edwards (Michigan Wolverines): $6,400 DraftKings
A knee injury to Blake Corum will keep him out of the Big Ten Championship against the Purdue Boilermakers, giving Donovan Edwards his second straight start for the Michigan Wolverines. The sophomore thrived with the starters last week and should be a difference-maker again on the main slate.
Edwards feasted against the Ohio State Buckeyes last week, taking 22 carries for 216 yards and two scores. Moreover, he caught both his targets, adding nine yards via the passing game. He should get a similar workload against an inferior Boilermakers defense.
Purdue sits in the bottom half of the conference in rushing yards, allowing an average of 128.8 per game. Worse, that metric has fallen to 159.7 over their past three games, with the lowly Indian Hoosiers trouncing them for 215 in Week 13.
Edwards has picked up Corum’s mantle without missing a beat. We thought we saw how good he was last week, but we could see Edwards find a new gear against Purdue.
Tyjae Spears (Tulane Green Wave): $6,700 DraftKings
Tulane Green Wave running back Tyjae Spears has flown under the radar playing for a lesser-known Group of 5 school. With a limited schedule and all eyes on the conference finals, we could see Spears get the recognition he deserves in the AAC title game.
Spears has run roughshod over opponents this year, totaling 1,177 rushing and 240 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. He’s been particularly effective to end the season, surpassing 120 rushing yards in six straight contests, with a rolling average of 144.2. Those efforts have been rewarded in the red zone, with Spears crossing the plane five times over his last couple of games.
The UCF Knights are fortunate to be in the title game, needing a win and some help in the final week of the regular season to be included in Saturday’s showdown. Their luck runs out against Spears and the Green Wave, who will suffocate their opponents with their elite running game.
CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Josh Downs (North Carolina Tar Heels): $7,600 DraftKings
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen different receivers eat into Josh Downs’ target share in the Tar Heels’ passing game. Nevertheless, Downs remains the pre-eminent pass-catcher for North Carolina and ranks as the best wideout available on the main slate.
The last couple of outings ended Downs’ four-game streak with at least 102 receiving yards, but he should get back on track against Clemson. The Tigers have allowed a 100-yard effort in two of their last three games against much worse opponents than the Tar Heels.
Downs has an established connection with Maye, earning a 30.0% target share over the last six weeks. Although his performances haven’t lived up to expectations lately, he’s due for a breakout performance. That should come against a Tigers’ secondary that has failed to contain opponents to end the season.
Charlie Jones (Purdue Boilermakers): $7,400 DraftKings
Presumably, the Boilermakers will be playing from behind for most, if not all, of the Big Ten Championship. That will necessitate an emphasis on the passing game as they try to keep pace with the second-ranked Wolverines. As such, Charlie Jones will again be a focal point of the Boilermakers’ attack.
Jones has been the preferred outlet all season for Aidan O’Connell in the aerial attack. The senior has 1,199 yards on 97 catches, both of which put him in the upper echelon of receivers in the country. Among FBS receivers, Jones ranks fifth in yardage and third in receptions, and he’s thriving to end his collegiate career.
The fourth-year wide receiver has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in four of his last six while hitting double-digit receptions three times. More importantly, he’s had success in finding the end zone, recording five touchdowns over the six-game sample.
This could be Jones’ last high-profile game of his collegiate career, and we expect him to go out with a bang. We like the Purdue wideout to reach his fantasy ceiling as the Boilermakers lean into their passing game against the Wolverines.
Javon Baker (UCF Knights): $5,800 DraftKings
The Knights are turning things up to end the season, scoring 35 or more points in three of their last four. Part of their success is due to their passing game, which they will have to turn to more frequently to keep pace with Tulane.
Ryan O’Keefe leads the Knights in receptions, but he has been usurped by Javon Baker in several other notable categories over the last few weeks. Baker has led the team in receiving yards in three straight weeks, posting a 28.6% target share over that span. Those efforts have staked Baker to the team lead in receiving yards while also tying him with O’Keefe in touchdowns.
There is also some fluidity to the Knights’ quarterback situation, with Mikey Keene and John Rhys Plumlee both taking snaps under center. This new iteration of UCF’s offense has prioritized getting Baker the ball, and we don’t expect that to change in the biggest game of the year.
The FantasyLabs projections feature O’Keefe as the top option for the Knights; however, recent history suggests Baker is the preferred option. We’re deferring to the latter, as Baker is trending in a positive direction and comes at a more affordable salary.
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