Thanksgiving is less than a week away, meaning this is our last full Saturday of the college football season. Some Power 5 schools are taking their foot off the gas in the penultimate regular season week, scheduling games against inferior squads ahead of the final push. Still, there are some noteworthy matchups to look forward to, highlighted by two top-25 contests and some classic in-state rivalry games.
College football is new to FantasyLabs this season. Inside our Player Models, you’ll be able to utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups for your DFS contests.
Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.
Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Clayton Tune (Houston Cougars): $8,100 DraftKings
With last week’s win over the Temple Owls, the Houston Cougars became bowl eligible for the third straight season. There’s still time for them to pad their resume for a more prestigious bowl game, and Clayton Tune could help them get there with another strong performance against the East Carolina Pirates.
It’s hard to believe, but last week’s 289-yard and three-touchdown performance was a modest effort from Tune. The senior pivot had thrown for at least 380 yards and four touchdowns in the two games prior but could get back to his gaudy metrics on Saturday.
The Pirates have employed a loose standard in their passing defense, allowing an average of 263.2 yards per game. They’ve been even worse at home over their recent sample, letting three of their past four opponents throw for at least 296 yards, with a mean of 288.3 yards per game.
Tune has thrown for the third-most touchdowns and ninth-most yards this year and is poised to move up both lists in Week 12. Based on our projections, Tune has the highest median and ceiling projections on the main slate.
Holton Ahlers (East Carolina Panthers): $6,200 DraftKings
We don’t have to look far to find our next quarterback, highlighting Pirates’ signal-caller Holton Ahlers. Ahlers is close behind Tune in passing yards, accumulating the 11th-most among FBS quarterbacks, and has reserved his best efforts for at home. That’s bad news for a Cougars defense that has hemorrhaged yards against.
No AAC passing defense has been worse than Houston’s. Opponents are rattling off nearly 300 passing yards per game against the Cougars, including 380.0 over the last three.
That’s an advantage that Ahlers doesn’t need at home. The senior is completing 71.1% of his passes in his friendly confines for 8.2 yards per pass attempt and a sterling 11-3 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for at least 304 yards in three straight home games. Further, Ahlers has rushed for a score in three of his last four, adding to his appeal as a bargain quarterback.
Ahlers salary doesn’t come close to matching his potential output, making him an x-factor in any tournament format. Grabbing him affords DFS bettors much-needed money to sprinkle among other positions.
C.J. Stroud (Ohio State Buckeyes): $9,600 DraftKings
There’s an argument to be made that C.J. Stroud is the best college football player in the country. The Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback has the most touchdown passes, the top-ranked quarterback rating, and is the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy this year. It would be foolish to overlook his fantasy value versus the Maryland Terrapins.
Stroud has been incredibly consistent throughout the campaign, throwing for four or more touchdowns on six occasions and 281 or more yards seven times. Week 10’s narrow victory over the Northwestern Wildcats notwithstanding, Stroud has completed 71.8% of his passes for 1,298 yards in four games since October 8.
The Terrapins have fallen apart over the latter part of the season, dropping three of their last five while failing to cover in any of those contests. Moreover, they’ve gone over in three of five, allowing an average of 28.2 points per game against worse teams than the Buckeyes.
Stroud has the highest salary on the board, and the projections match. The senior pivot can cement the Buckeyes as a top-four squad with another dominating performance.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Bijan Robinson (Texas Longhorns): $9,100 DraftKings
It’s been a minute since the Texas Longhorns were featured on the main slate, but the Big 12 contenders have re-appeared in Week 12. We’re taking the opportunity to roster one of the nation’s top rushers, Bijan Robinson, versus an ineffective Kansas Jayhawks defense.
Robinson and the Longhorns are coming off a humbling defeat against the TCU Horned Frogs. The junior running back was limited to a meager 29 yards on 12 carries, easily his worst outing of the season. However, the last time Robinson was held to less than 3.0 yards per carry, he responded with one of the best efforts of his career.
In that contest, Robinson ran for 183 yards and three scores on 20 carries. That precipitated a string of above-average matches in which the Longhorns half-back rushed for at least 100 yards in seven straight games, a streak that ended last week.
The Jayhawks have one of the worst total and scoring defenses in the FBS, and Robinson is due for a bounce-back effort. Watch him put Texas on his back and carry them to victory on Saturday.
Deuce Vaughn (Kansas State Wildcats): $7,400 DraftKings
Even with a loss to the Longhorns in conference play, the Kansas State Wildcats control their own fate as they look for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game. Deuce Vaughn has been at the forefront of the Wildcats’ game planning and is once again an elite player to target for DFS rosters.
The K-State running back has toted the ball at least 18 times in three straight games and eight of 10 appearances this season. That usage will be amplified by the absence of Adrian Martinez, who was ruled out with an unspecified injury ahead of the Big 12 matchup.
Vaughn has been at his best when he touches the ball at least 20 times. In six contests with at least 20 carries, Vaughn averages 5.6 yards per carry. The junior’s average drops to 5.1 when his volume dips below that threshold.
The West Virginia Mountaineers don’t have an intimidating defensive presence, allowing 100-yard rushers in three of their previous four games. Additionally, they are reeling after last week’s flop in which Eric Gray ran for 211 and two touchdowns. Vaughn will add to that pile at Mountaineer Field.
Nakia Watson (Washington State Cougars): $3,800 DraftKings
We are going bargain hunting with our last pick, featuring Washington State Cougars running back Nakia Watson as a pre-eminent fantasy option.
Watson has quietly put together some superb performances lately. The fourth-year back has led the Cougars in touches over the past couple of weeks, rushing the ball a combined 36 times for 282 yards. Watson’s fantasy value has been elevated by his ability to find the end zone, crossing the plane four times over the minor two-game sample.
He can’t take credit for all of it, but Washington State’s offense is improved when Watson is a featured player. The Cougars’ scoring jumps to 34.6 points per game when Watson has 12 or more carries, above their season average of 26.9.
There’s no reason why Watson should be priced as low as he is against an Arizona Wildcats defense that has an open-door policy against the run.
CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Nathaniel Dell (Houston Cougars): $8,200 DraftKings
This week’s top stacking option is brought to you courtesy of the Cougars. Pairing wideout Nathaniel Dell with the aforementioned Tune could be the highest-producing duo on the slate.
Dell’s results this year put him in the conversation as an All-American. The Florida native ranks fifth among FBS wide receivers in yards and third in catches, with the second-most touchdowns. Recently, Tune has squeezed even more out of Dell, with the receiver totaling 25 catches and 278 over the last two games. More impressively, Dell has commanded a 35.1% target share across those outings.
Dell heads into Saturday’s AAC battle on a seven-game touchdown streak. According to the FantasyLabs algorithm, there’s a good chance that benchmark is extended, as Dell has the highest ceiling in the wide receiver group.
Isaiah Winstead (Eastern Carolina Pirates): $7,000 DraftKings
However, we have a stacking option for the Pirates if you’re electing to roster Ahlers as a quarterback instead. Isaiah Winstead has been an asset for East Carolina all season and could surpass his already garish projections.
The Pirates call the 30th-most passing plays in the country, and Winstead consistently figures as a top receiving option. The senior has accumulated double-digit targets in six of the Pirates’ ten games this year, representing a 28.2% target share.
Winstead’s fantasy value has been limited by his inability to cross the plane. Although he’s the first option in the Pirates’ schemes, the Virginia native has just four scores on the campaign. He’ll have a chance to snap out of that funk against a Cougars team that allows the ninth-most offensive touchdowns per game.
This is Winstead’s final home game of his collegiate career, and we’re betting he goes out with a bang.
Jayden Reed (Michigan State Spartans): $5,600 DraftKings
The Michigan State Spartans’ passing game came to life last week, and we’re expecting the momentum to snowball into another above-average from Jayden Reed against the Indiana Hoosiers.
Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne threw for 256 yards against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights last week, and he made Reed a top priority. Reed led all Spartans receivers with ten targets, grabbing four of those for 90 yards and a touchdown. That was the senior’s eighth straight game with at least four receptions and the fifth time in six games in which he found paydirt. A repeat performance is on tap against the worst pass defense in the Big Ten.
Some more glamorous wide receivers are available, but Reed is one of the best value plays on the board. His 3.0 Points/Salary rank sixth-best among receivers, and he could easily surpass that against a porous Hoosiers defense.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Product Update: College Football DFS Projections Now on FantasyLabs
College Football DFS Picks: Week 0 CFB Main Slate Breakdown (Sat. 8/27)
College Football DFS Picks: Week 3 CFB Saturday Main Slate Breakdown (Sat. 9/17)
College Football DFS Picks: Week 9 CFB Saturday Main Slate Breakdown (Sat. 10/29)
