College Football DFS Picks: Week 11 CFB Saturday Main Slate Breakdown (Saturday, 11/11)

By Grant White @4thlinesports
Nov 10, 2023

In honor of Veterans Day, we thank all the service men and women who have served this great country and paid the ultimate price in defending our freedoms and liberties.

This week promises to be nothing short of sensational, as several key matchups will go a long way in determining which teams represent their conferences come Championship Weekend. Most notably, the Michigan Wolverines put their perfect season on the line as they travel to Beaver Stadium for a showdown versus the Penn State Nittany Lions. But we also aren’t sleeping on a few Pac-12 matchups, SEC battles, ACC, and Big 12 games that promise to deliver.

We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.

College football is back at FantasyLabs. Inside our Player Models, you’ll be able to utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups for your DFS contests.

Or if cash games are more your speed, you can build your lineups alongside our projections with our Lineup Builder. From there, you can hand-build your lineup or lock in a few guys and let the builder optimize the rest based on our projections.

Here’s a brief snippet of what our models look like:

Let’s dive into this week’s slate!

CFB DFS Quarterback Picks

Cameron Ward (Washington State Cougars): $8,500 DraftKings

The Washington State Cougars are working towards bowl eligibility, needing wins in two of their final three games to be in contention. They will likely need wins in Weeks 11 and 12, as they will face stark odds of winning their regular season finale against the potentially playoff-bound Washington Huskies. Thankfully, they have Cameron Ward on their side, who projects as the top fantasy player available on Saturday’s main slate.

Ward continues to put the team on his back week after week. The junior pivot has thrown for at least 241 yards in six of nine outings this year, throwing touchdown passes in all but one of those games. Further, he’s adding fantasy points with his legs, leading the Cougars with five rushing touchdowns while averaging 9.4 carries per game.

Moreover, Washington State has a very winnable game against the California Golden Bears on Saturday. Cal allows the seventh-most passing yards in the nation, getting torched for 283.3 yards per game. Predictably, this has resulted in the second-worst scoring defense in the FBS, with opponents averaging 39.3 points per game.

Ward can get it done any way he wants on Saturday. The Golden Bears are one of the worst defensive teams in recent memory, assuring DFS punters that Ward reaches his elite fantasy ceiling on Saturday.

John Rhys Plumlee (UCF Knights): $7,500 DraftKings

With a bevy of top contenders lining up on the main slate, DFS players will have their pick of the litter for who they want to build around. You wouldn’t be wrong for deferring to some of the other highly regarded quarterbacks available; however, John Rhys Plumlee is without question one of the top values available.

The UCF Knights signal-caller has missed time this season but is getting acclimated to the Big 12 competition. Plumlee has improved his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt compared to last year’s breakout, resulting in a superior passer rating. Saturday’s showdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys is the last real stumbling block of the season, but we expect Plumlee and his Knights’ teammates to be ready for the contest.

As is typically the case, Plumlee’s home splits are substantially better than his road metrics. Specifically, his completion rating jumps from 57.1% on the road to 71.2% in his friendly confines. That also precipitates improvements in his passer rating and touchdown-to-interception ratio. Where we see the most notable difference is in his rushing metrics. Plumlee’s yards per carry more than doubles at home, going from 3.7 to 8.4.

Oklahoma State doesn’t beat teams with its defense. Instead, they let their offense run up the score and force opponents to try and keep pace. Plumlee will have ample opportunity to put points on the board and live up to his top-tier fantasy billing.

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CFB DFS Running Back Picks

Ollie Gordon (Oklahoma State Cowboys): $7,900 DraftKings

For the second straight week, we are highlighting Ollie Gordon as the running back to target on Saturday’s main slate. Gordon’s salary has inflated slightly this week, jumping $700 compared to last week’s benchmark. Still, he’s worth every penny as he remains the focal point of the Cowboys’ attack.

Gordon’s 138 rushing yards last week against the Oklahoma Sooners was his lowest total since running for 136 on October 6. That makes it six straight 100-yard rushing games for the sophomore, for an average of 186.0 yards per game. Moreover, Gordon has one of the most robust workloads in the country, averaging 25.8 carries over the six-game sample.

UCF’s defensive inefficiencies have been exploited in their new conference alignment. So far this season, FBS opponents are marching all over the Knights to the tune of 228.0 yards and 43.5 carries per game. Sadly, those metrics balloon to 241.0 and 46.3 over UCF’s last three.

No one is matching Gordon’s energy right now. The Cowboys running back leads the nation in yards despite sitting further off the pace in carries. Mike Gundy knows what he has in Gordon and will continue to flaunt it against the Knights.

Makhi Hughes (Tulane Green Wave): $5,800 DraftKings

It is a seemingly impossible task for a freshman running back to burst onto the scene in his first collegiate season and make an immediate impact on his team. But that’s exactly what Makhi Hughes has done in 2023 with the Tulane Green Wave. People are starting to take notice, but you can still get him at a discounted rate in Saturday’s clash against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

After taking on a secondary role early this season, Hughes has morphed into Tulane’s primary back over his past six weeks. Since Week 5, Hughes has run for at least 105 yards each time out, for 126.4 yards on 23.2 carries per game. Even before his breakout at the end of September, Hughes had a knack for getting yards in big chunks. The Alabama native has game-high rushes of 17 or more yards in all but two of his outings this year.

Tulsa’s been average at defending against the run, sitting in the middle of the pack with 148.6 rushing yards per game. But they are continuously burned by big plays. The Golden Hurricanes have given up game-high rushes of at least 48 yards in four straight games, with rushing leaders eclipsing 80 yards in each contest.

Hughes should have no problem adding to Tulsa’s misery, and that’s reflected in our algorithm. The freshman sits second in our median and ceiling projections and could easily surpass the high end of the range with improved scoring. He is the x-factor worth including on any roster, as this could be the last time we see Hughes’ salary this low.

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CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks

Lincoln Victor (Washington State Cougars): $5,800 DraftKings

We’re leading off with the top-rated pass-catcher on Saturday’s slate, who just so happens to be a stacking option with our preferred quarterback play. Cameron Ward has a number of playmakers to distribute the ball to. Kyle Williams is his big-play receiver. Josh Kelly is the touchdown Hawk. But Lincoln Victor straddles both roles while also seeing the highest volume of any receiver.

It’s worth noting that Victor is dealing with an injury; however, he was practicing early in the week which is a good indicator that he should be available against the Golden Bears. If not, pull the chute and nab one of Kelly or Williams as a replacement.

If playing, no one can match Victor’s ceiling. Although his yardage totals are all over the place, Victor is consistently the favored receiver in the Cougars’ passing attack. The Hawaii native has been targeted an absurd 47 times over his last three games, grabbing 37 receptions for 278 yards and a touchdown. His receptions total is easily the best mark on the team, while he’s second in both yards and touchdowns.

We’re locking Victor in as the top receiver available, a stance that’s reflected in our projections. The senior tops our median, ceiling, and Points/Salary categories, representing both his eliteness and value. Victor should see the volume, yardage, and touchdowns to end the day as one of the top performers on the slate.

Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona Wildcats): $6,300 DraftKings

Not surprisingly, there are a slew of top-end pass-catchers available from the pass-heavy Pac-12 on the main slate. Among those are two Arizona Wildcats receivers who have emerged as a top-25 team for the first time in six years. Like the Washington State group, you wouldn’t be wrong for selecting either player, but we give the edge to Tetairoa McMillan.

For starters, McMillan and Jacob Cowing rate very similarly in our projections. Cowing has the slight edge in terms of ceiling, but McMillan comes in at a more affordable $6,300 salary. Given the proximity of where they are projected to finish, it’s worth rostering McMillan instead.

There are several other factors to consider, benefitting McMillan as the preferred option. Although the sophomore has 17 fewer receptions than Cowing, McMillan has 243 more yards, highlighting his big play ability. McMillan has catches of 25 or more yards in three of his last four contests, setting the team-high mark with a 55-yard catch and run earlier in the campaign. Further, he’s hit double-digits in targets in all but one of his last four outings, illustrating the chemistry he’s building with Noah Fifita.

Everyone gets free yards against the Colorado Buffaloes, and the Wildcats will make the most of that opportunity. As a team, Arizona has accumulated at least 275 passing yards in four straight, with McMillan representing a hefty portion of those gains. He should be at his best against a beatable Buffaloes team in Boulder.

Theo Wease (Missouri Tigers): $5,100 DraftKings

Bear with me as we scroll down the projections a bit to land on Theo Wease. The Missouri Tigers wide receiver sits in the middle of the pack in terms of median and ceiling projections, but he could easily surpass those benchmarks if Luther Burden doesn’t suit up.

Burden has been the preferred pass-catching option in the Tigers offense, but his participation in Saturday’s SEC tilt versus the Tennessee Volunteers is in question. Even if he does suit up, it’s evident that Burden won’t be at his usual operating capacity, suggesting that Wease could be in for a repeat performance from last week.

In Week 10’s loss to the two-time defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs, Wease led the Tigers in targets, receptions, and yards. That was the third time this season that Wease has led the team in targets and his second-best yardage total of the campaign. Additionally, he’ll get to take off against a Volunteers secondary that has given up 813 passing yards over their last three matchups.

With or without Burden, Wease figures to feature more prominently in Missouri’s offense. The senior ranks second to Burden in virtually every pass-catching category. With Burden either playing hurt or sitting out completely, Wease should resume his role as the de facto target for Brady Cook.

In honor of Veterans Day, we thank all the service men and women who have served this great country and paid the ultimate price in defending our freedoms and liberties.

We’ve got you covered for DFS purposes, highlighting our preferred players from Saturday’s main slate.

College football is back at FantasyLabs. Inside our Player Models, you’ll be able to utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups for your DFS contests.

Here’s a brief snippet of what our models look like:

Let’s dive into this week’s slate!