There are a limited amount of marquee matchups in college football this week, with several substantial spreads on the board. Although that may make the viewing experience less than stellar, it does leave opportunities to exploit as we build our NCAAF rosters for the main slate in Week 11. We’re highlighting the favorite plays from our projections as we prepare for the third last week of the regular season.
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Let’s dive into this week’s slate!
CFB DFS Quarterback Picks
Tanner Mordecai (SMU Mustangs): $8,100 DraftKings
Heading into the 11th week of the season, Tanner Mordecai makes his first appearance on our breakdown list, and for good reason. The SMU Mustangs head into their AAC matchup against the South Florida Bulls as steep -17.5 road chalk.
South Florida has been torched through the air all season. The Bulls rank 122nd against FBS opponents in passing yards allowed, giving up 293.8 yards per game. That number is likely to climb once Mordecai is through with them.
The senior pivot has been great all season, throwing for the 18th-most yards and eighth-most touchdowns, but is flourishing over his recent schedule. Mordecai is coming off a… Nine. Touchdown. Performance. Accumulating 379 yards through the air. That was the fifth time in eight games in which the Texas Native threw for at least 336 yards.
Mordecai has been relentless this season, and the Bulls have no one to stop him. It’s unlikely that he will add nine more touchdowns to his stat sheet, but it’s probable that he will end the day as the top fantasy producer.
Hendon Hooker (Tennessee Volunteers): $8,300 DraftKings
The Tennessee Volunteers were knocked from their top-ranked status with a loss to the defending National Champion Georgia Bulldogs in Week 10. Hendon Hooker was out-matched by the Bulldogs’ defense but should get back on track at home against the Missouri Tigers.
Prior to last week, Hooker had thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season, running the pigskin into the end zone himself on four occasions. Moreover, he’s been one of the most responsible decision-makers in the country, throwing just his second interception of the season last time out.
His superb home splits set Hooker apart from the pack this week. The dual-threat’s yards per pass attempt jump from 7.4 to 11.4 at home, thanks in part to a 9.0% boost in his completion percentage. The most telling stat is his quarterback rating which is 210.1 at home compared to 139.2 on the road.
After last week’s loss, Hooker and the Volunteers have something to prove, and the Tigers will bear the brunt of it in Week 11.
Jayden Daniels (LSU Tigers): $8,500 DraftKings
This feels like a trap spot for Jayden Daniels and the LSU Tigers. The SEC West leaders are coming off a monumental overtime victory over the Alabama Crimson Tide as +13.5 dogs. Now, they’re on the road against an inferior Arkansas Razorbacks squad as -3.5 favorites. Nevertheless, we’re anticipating another strong showing from Daniels on Saturday.
Daniels has been a fundamental part of the Tigers’ success this season, leading the team in passing and rushing yards. Further, he’s accounted for 24 of the team’s touchdowns, throwing for 14 and running ten in. The junior pivot has been an asset over his recent sample, rushing for seven scores and finding pass-catchers for seven more over his last three outings.
The Razorbacks have struggled to contain opponents this season, giving up the second-most yards in the SEC, with an average of 302.1 passing yards per game.
A flat spot for Daniels is still better than what we are expecting from virtually every other quarterback on the main slate. According to the FantasyLabs projections, Daniels has the second-best fantasy ceiling among quarterbacks on Saturday.
CFB DFS Running Back Picks
Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama Crimson Tide): $8,700 DraftKings
It won’t be official for a few weeks, but the Alabama Crimson Tide will be on the outside of the College Football Playoff window, looking in. While supporters will be grieving the loss of a potential National Championship, Jahmyr Gibbs will be busy amplifying his draft stock.
The task will be easier with a matchup against the Ole Miss Bulldogs on tap. The 11th-ranked Bulldogs are below-average defensively and vulnerable against the run, setting Gibbs up for another monster performance.
The junior running back has excelled versus conference opponents, averaging 6.9 yards per carry while also featuring in the passing game. Gibbs has 148 or more yards from scrimmage in four of the last five games, with a rolling average of 155.4 yards per game over that stretch.
Bama isn’t the type of program to roll over and die, and that’s bad news for the Bulldogs, who enter Week 11’s contest as +11 home dogs.
Chase Brown (Illinois Fighting Illini): $8,100 DraftKings
We’ve rostered Chase Brown every chance we’ve got this year, and we haven’t regretted it once. We’re taking another firm stance on the junior running back as the Illinois Fighting Illini host the Purdue Boilermakers in Big Ten action.
Nobody has had an answer for Brown this year, with the Canadian back running for no fewer than 108 yards in any contest and averaging 149.3 rushing yards per game. However, the limiting factor has been Brown’s inability to cross the plane, recording just five rushing and three receiving touchdowns all season.
That should change against a Boilermakers team that has been burned over their last few games. Purdue has given up 29 or more points in three of their previous four, with opponents recording an average of 31.3 points per game.
Brown is a high-volume back with an elite fantasy ceiling, making him one of our preferred running backs on the main slate.
Tyler Lavine (SMU Mustangs): $3,400 DraftKings
We’ve included a stacking option with one of the top-rated quarterbacks throughout most of the season. That has typically included a top wide receiver option, but in this case, we’re including Tyler Lavine as a correlated play to handcuff to Mordecai.
Lavine has emerged as the lead rusher out of the Mustangs backfield over the last couple of weeks due to injuries to Tre Siggers and Velton Gardner. Although Gardner is probable for Saturday’s contest against the Bulls, Lavine has cemented himself as SMU’s best option. The senior has 218 rushing yards and four touchdowns while serving as the lead back over the last two games.
Lavine may take on a decreased role compared to the last couple of outings. Nevertheless, he should be a prominent feature on offense and easily surpass his salary’s implied value.
CFB DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Rashee Rice (SMU Mustangs): $8,400 DraftKings
We’re not done with the Mustangs stack just yet, highlighting Rashee Rice as the pre-eminent wide receiver available on the main slate. Rice is one of the top receivers in the nation and has found a fifth gear in the latter part of the season.
Rice has totaled 266 receiving yards with four touchdowns on 18 receptions over his last two matchups. Mordecai can’t get enough of Rice in the passing game either, targeting him 43.1% of the time across those outings. However, Rice’s success isn’t limited to his current schedule.
The senior wideout leads the nation in receiving yards while ranking fourth in receptions. Overall, he’s been brilliant throughout the campaign, with the recent uptick in scoring amplifying Rice’s fantasy ceiling.
The Mustangs have scored 122 points over their last two games, and Rice is a big reason why. That triumph will continue against South Florida.
Xavier Hutchinson (Iowa State Cyclones): $8,300 DraftKings
One of the few wideouts who have more receptions than Rice this season is Xavier Hutchinson, who has been the go-to option on offense for the Iowa State Cyclones.
Hutchinson leads FBS receivers with 87 catches this year, translating that into 983 yards and six touchdowns. The Florida native has been more assertive over his previous five games, hitting double-digit receptions and triple-digit yardage in four contests.
Like Rice, Hutchinson is a high-volume target in his team’s offensive schemes. The Cyclones are throwing Hutchinson’s way on 31.6% of passing plays over the five-game sample.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have been the most porous defensive unit in the Big 12 this year. Hutchinson has thrived all season, but we could see him set some new benchmarks on Saturday.
Michael Mayer (Notre Dame Fighting Irish): $6,800 DraftKings
With three losses on the year, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have no conceivable path into the playoffs. Still, their offense has been flying over the last three weeks, scoring 35 or more points each time out. We’re anticipating ongoing success as they take on the Navy Midshipmen in Week 11.
Tight end Michael Mayer has been Drew Pyne’s safety blanket all season, and we should see Mayer expose the Midshipmen’s questionable secondary. Navy allows an average of 275.0 passing yards per game, jumping to 285.8 when we tease out FCS opponents.
Mayer has been limited in yardage this season, but he’s consistently found paydirt. The junior has touchdowns in six of nine appearances, totaling seven touchdowns altogether. Additionally, we have seen a modest increase in his receiving totals lately, with Mayer collecting 60 or more yards in four of his past six.
Based on our projections, Mayer easily ranks as one of the top pass catchers available. But with his diminished salary, he could be the x-factor that sets your lineup apart.
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