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College Football Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 8/25): Hawai’i to Pass in Shootout at Colorado State

College football is officially here, and DraftKings is bringing back CFB DFS. The first slate of the year kicks off today at 7:00 pm ET.

It’s only Week Zero — the real action picks up in earnest next week — so only three games are available in this slate.

  • Prairie Valley A&M at Rice, 7:00 pm ET
  • Hawai’i at Colorado State, 7:30 pm ET
  • Wyoming at New Mexico State, 10:00 pm ET

There are eight spots in each lineup: One quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one flex and one superflex.

Here are nine players to know for the slate, three for each skill position.

Quarterbacks

K.J. Carta-Samuels (Colorado State): $10,800

CSU returns very little production from last season’s 12th-ranked offense, and the Rams will be leaning on graduate transfer Carta-Samuels’ leadership against Mountain West Conference foe Hawai’i.

A backup for years at Washington, Carta-Samuels likely has the highest floor among the slate’s quarterbacks, as only two of the other teams have named starters. Wyoming will start redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who has never thrown a college pass and inherits the Cowboys’ anemic 119th-ranked offense. New Mexico State will start Matt Romero, a junior college transfer making his debut in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). The three other teams are locked in quarterback battles, and both Rice and Hawai’i reportedly intend to play multiple quarterbacks this week.

Additionally, Carta-Samuels has a lot going for him. The Rams are -14 home favorites with an implied total of 35.5 points. In a slate with many questionable quarterbacks, Carta-Samuels is worth the high price tag and should be a great play in cash games. It’s notable that CSU is the second-best NCAA team against the spread since 2013. (Hawai’i is the ninth-worst ATS team.)

Matt Romero (New Mexico State): $7,500

After Carta-Samuels, the quarterback to roster might be Romero, who costs less than a couple of backups but is locked in as the starter. Playing at Palomar College in 2017, Romero threw for 2915 yards and 26 touchdowns in 11 games. New Mexico State attempted 641 passes last season (second in NCAA) and boasted the sixth-best passing offense in the nation at 340.2 yards per game. The Aggies run a read-option offensive scheme that should provide Romero with some premium rushing volume.

Romero’s biggest obstacle to fantasy success is his opponent: The Wyoming defense is legit. The Cowboys ranked 13th in the country against the pass last season. They also return defensive talent across the board, such as preseason All-American safety Andrew Wingard. But Romero’s offensive line returns a starter at every position. Professional bettors are backing New Mexico State, so Romero probably has upside even against a stout Wyoming defense.

Lavell McCullers (Prairie View A&M): $4,500

McCullers is a tournament option, especially in the superflex spot. Offseason information is remarkably scarce for Prairie View A&M (a Football Championship Subdivision school), so McCullers will likely have low ownership. A redshirt senior, McCullers looks like the presumptive starter after playing in nine games and splitting snaps with the now-gone Neiko Hollins last year, when he went 72-of-145 passing for 907 yards and five touchdowns and finished third on the team with a 59-214-1 rushing line. McCuller’s dual-threat ability makes him a high-floor play at a low cost.


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Running Backs

Jason Huntley (New Mexico State): $8,200

The most expensive back on the slate, Huntley is the top returning rusher and second-best returning receiver for the Aggies (in terms of 2017 production). Playing behind Larry Rose III last season, Huntley racked up 798 total yards and three touchdowns with averages of 6.1 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per catch. With how closely Wyoming and New Mexico State are matched, Huntley could benefit from positive game script at home.

Wyoming was a bad offensive team last year, and that was with future first-round quarterback Josh Allen. The Cowboys averaged just 108.8 rushing yards per game (118th) and 177.2 passing yards per game (104th). Worse still, they ranked 114th in third-down conversion rate (33%). Wyoming returns minimal offensive production, and the quarterback is making his first collegiate start. The Cowboys offense is likely to struggle, so the Aggies could have extra possessions, resulting in a lot of extra action for a team that last year ranked in the top 20 in plays per game. If the Aggiest are in a position to burn the clock, they could lean on Huntley.

Emmanuel Esukpa (Rice): $6,900

Rice isn’t likely to win many games, but the Owls should crush this week as home favorites with a 41-point implied total against an FCS team. New head coach Mike Bloomgren (former Stanford offensive coordinator) has publicly emphasized that he wants the team to be tough and physical against the Panthers, which suggests a run-heavy scheme, especially since Bloomgren has also expressed ambivalence about his quarterbacks, saying that neither player in the competition has earned the job. All indications are that Esukpa (six-feet, 232 pounds) will be Rice’s primary offensive weapon, and he could see extra carries with backup Nashon Ellerbe unavailable due to injury.

Dawonya Tucker (Prairie View A&M): $4,100

While Rice should beat Prairie View A&M, but Rice is coming off one of its worst seasons ever, finishing 1-11 and losing 10 straight games to close the year. The Owls defense ranked 122nd and gave up 35.3 points per game in the losing streak. The Panthers could stay competitive for much of the contest and look to shorten the game by running the ball. If that happens, they’ll likely rely on Tucker, the team’s top returning rusher (89-531-5 last year) and a preseason all-conference selection.


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Wide Receivers

John Ursua (Hawai’i): $10,300

Ursua is the slate’s most expensive receiver, but his potential justifies the price tag. Before a knee injury prematurely ended his 2017 season, Ursua posted a 47-667-5 receiving line in just six games. He’s been named to the preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Award, which goes to the top college wide receiver each year. As the top returning receiver in a high-volume run-and-shoot offense, Ursua should be frequently targeted. The Hawai’i defense ranked 124th last season and is unlikely to provide meaningful resistance: The Warriors are +14 road dogs, and the game has a 56.5-point total. Hawai’i will probably need to pass early and often, which could result in a huge day for Ursua.

Olabisi Johnson (Colorado State): $8,700

Colorado State ranks dead last in returning production, losing (among others) third-round wide receiver Michael Gallup. Of all the returning receivers, Johnson by far is the leader, having gone 69-1,208-6 receiving over the past two seasons. If the Warriors are able to turn this game into a shootout with their fast-paced offense, then Johnson could see sustained usage. Given the scarcity of viable receivers on the slate, Johnson is an upside option for DFS players who don’t want to pay all the way up for Ursua.

OJ Clark (New Mexico State): $5,400

After a few wide receivers at the top of the salary scale, there is significant uncertainty in this position group. Depth charts are still unsure, and usage is unknown. Of all the receivers who seem to have defined roles as No. 1 options, Clark is the cheapest. A redshirt junior, Clark is the top returning receiver for the Aggies, posting a 47-500-3 line in 2017. The only obvious threat to Clark’s usage is senior receiver Johnathan Boone, but he underwent offseason surgery and is unlikely to play. Clark is undersized (5-feet-7, 165 pounds), but he’s agile and shifty. Playing most of his snaps last season in the slot and at flanker, he was most often targeted on screens, bubbles and short-yardage routes. Even though he’s facing a stingy Wyoming secondary, his style of play should enable him to create some space.


Photo Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: John Ursua

College football is officially here, and DraftKings is bringing back CFB DFS. The first slate of the year kicks off today at 7:00 pm ET.

It’s only Week Zero — the real action picks up in earnest next week — so only three games are available in this slate.

  • Prairie Valley A&M at Rice, 7:00 pm ET
  • Hawai’i at Colorado State, 7:30 pm ET
  • Wyoming at New Mexico State, 10:00 pm ET

There are eight spots in each lineup: One quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one flex and one superflex.

Here are nine players to know for the slate, three for each skill position.

Quarterbacks

K.J. Carta-Samuels (Colorado State): $10,800

CSU returns very little production from last season’s 12th-ranked offense, and the Rams will be leaning on graduate transfer Carta-Samuels’ leadership against Mountain West Conference foe Hawai’i.

A backup for years at Washington, Carta-Samuels likely has the highest floor among the slate’s quarterbacks, as only two of the other teams have named starters. Wyoming will start redshirt freshman Tyler Vander Waal, who has never thrown a college pass and inherits the Cowboys’ anemic 119th-ranked offense. New Mexico State will start Matt Romero, a junior college transfer making his debut in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS). The three other teams are locked in quarterback battles, and both Rice and Hawai’i reportedly intend to play multiple quarterbacks this week.

Additionally, Carta-Samuels has a lot going for him. The Rams are -14 home favorites with an implied total of 35.5 points. In a slate with many questionable quarterbacks, Carta-Samuels is worth the high price tag and should be a great play in cash games. It’s notable that CSU is the second-best NCAA team against the spread since 2013. (Hawai’i is the ninth-worst ATS team.)

Matt Romero (New Mexico State): $7,500

After Carta-Samuels, the quarterback to roster might be Romero, who costs less than a couple of backups but is locked in as the starter. Playing at Palomar College in 2017, Romero threw for 2915 yards and 26 touchdowns in 11 games. New Mexico State attempted 641 passes last season (second in NCAA) and boasted the sixth-best passing offense in the nation at 340.2 yards per game. The Aggies run a read-option offensive scheme that should provide Romero with some premium rushing volume.

Romero’s biggest obstacle to fantasy success is his opponent: The Wyoming defense is legit. The Cowboys ranked 13th in the country against the pass last season. They also return defensive talent across the board, such as preseason All-American safety Andrew Wingard. But Romero’s offensive line returns a starter at every position. Professional bettors are backing New Mexico State, so Romero probably has upside even against a stout Wyoming defense.

Lavell McCullers (Prairie View A&M): $4,500

McCullers is a tournament option, especially in the superflex spot. Offseason information is remarkably scarce for Prairie View A&M (a Football Championship Subdivision school), so McCullers will likely have low ownership. A redshirt senior, McCullers looks like the presumptive starter after playing in nine games and splitting snaps with the now-gone Neiko Hollins last year, when he went 72-of-145 passing for 907 yards and five touchdowns and finished third on the team with a 59-214-1 rushing line. McCuller’s dual-threat ability makes him a high-floor play at a low cost.


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Running Backs

Jason Huntley (New Mexico State): $8,200

The most expensive back on the slate, Huntley is the top returning rusher and second-best returning receiver for the Aggies (in terms of 2017 production). Playing behind Larry Rose III last season, Huntley racked up 798 total yards and three touchdowns with averages of 6.1 yards per carry and 9.3 yards per catch. With how closely Wyoming and New Mexico State are matched, Huntley could benefit from positive game script at home.

Wyoming was a bad offensive team last year, and that was with future first-round quarterback Josh Allen. The Cowboys averaged just 108.8 rushing yards per game (118th) and 177.2 passing yards per game (104th). Worse still, they ranked 114th in third-down conversion rate (33%). Wyoming returns minimal offensive production, and the quarterback is making his first collegiate start. The Cowboys offense is likely to struggle, so the Aggies could have extra possessions, resulting in a lot of extra action for a team that last year ranked in the top 20 in plays per game. If the Aggiest are in a position to burn the clock, they could lean on Huntley.

Emmanuel Esukpa (Rice): $6,900

Rice isn’t likely to win many games, but the Owls should crush this week as home favorites with a 41-point implied total against an FCS team. New head coach Mike Bloomgren (former Stanford offensive coordinator) has publicly emphasized that he wants the team to be tough and physical against the Panthers, which suggests a run-heavy scheme, especially since Bloomgren has also expressed ambivalence about his quarterbacks, saying that neither player in the competition has earned the job. All indications are that Esukpa (six-feet, 232 pounds) will be Rice’s primary offensive weapon, and he could see extra carries with backup Nashon Ellerbe unavailable due to injury.

Dawonya Tucker (Prairie View A&M): $4,100

While Rice should beat Prairie View A&M, but Rice is coming off one of its worst seasons ever, finishing 1-11 and losing 10 straight games to close the year. The Owls defense ranked 122nd and gave up 35.3 points per game in the losing streak. The Panthers could stay competitive for much of the contest and look to shorten the game by running the ball. If that happens, they’ll likely rely on Tucker, the team’s top returning rusher (89-531-5 last year) and a preseason all-conference selection.


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Wide Receivers

John Ursua (Hawai’i): $10,300

Ursua is the slate’s most expensive receiver, but his potential justifies the price tag. Before a knee injury prematurely ended his 2017 season, Ursua posted a 47-667-5 receiving line in just six games. He’s been named to the preseason watch list for the Biletnikoff Award, which goes to the top college wide receiver each year. As the top returning receiver in a high-volume run-and-shoot offense, Ursua should be frequently targeted. The Hawai’i defense ranked 124th last season and is unlikely to provide meaningful resistance: The Warriors are +14 road dogs, and the game has a 56.5-point total. Hawai’i will probably need to pass early and often, which could result in a huge day for Ursua.

Olabisi Johnson (Colorado State): $8,700

Colorado State ranks dead last in returning production, losing (among others) third-round wide receiver Michael Gallup. Of all the returning receivers, Johnson by far is the leader, having gone 69-1,208-6 receiving over the past two seasons. If the Warriors are able to turn this game into a shootout with their fast-paced offense, then Johnson could see sustained usage. Given the scarcity of viable receivers on the slate, Johnson is an upside option for DFS players who don’t want to pay all the way up for Ursua.

OJ Clark (New Mexico State): $5,400

After a few wide receivers at the top of the salary scale, there is significant uncertainty in this position group. Depth charts are still unsure, and usage is unknown. Of all the receivers who seem to have defined roles as No. 1 options, Clark is the cheapest. A redshirt junior, Clark is the top returning receiver for the Aggies, posting a 47-500-3 line in 2017. The only obvious threat to Clark’s usage is senior receiver Johnathan Boone, but he underwent offseason surgery and is unlikely to play. Clark is undersized (5-feet-7, 165 pounds), but he’s agile and shifty. Playing most of his snaps last season in the slot and at flanker, he was most often targeted on screens, bubbles and short-yardage routes. Even though he’s facing a stingy Wyoming secondary, his style of play should enable him to create some space.


Photo Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured Above: John Ursua