After a one-week stop in Mexico, the PGA TOUR has arrived in the Sunshine State for a four-week block of touranments ater are some of the best on the schedule each season. This week, the Florida Swing begins with a stop at PGA National as players try to survive The Bear Trap and claim a bin win at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.
This is the second season with a new sponsor for the tournament formerly known as The Honda Classic, but players and fans now PGA National well from its regular spot on the PGA TOUR. It’s a full-field event this week with some big names back in play after a light field last week. For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Daniel Berger $9,900
Berger is the third-most expensive player in the field, which seems like a very elevated salary for him, but it also creates a great pay-up spot for leverage since the public seems to agree that he’s over-priced. He brings the highest SimLeverage in the field, though, since his ownership projection is under 15%. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% and a ceiling projection that ranks in the top 10.
Part of the reason that the 31-year-old is so highly priced is that he comes with an elite course history. He finished in the top five three times at this venue, including a playoff loss in 2015 to Padraig Harrington and fourth-place finishes in 2020 and 2022. He missed the cut last season despite an opening-round 68.
Berger returns to the course this year with much better form. He missed the cut at the Sony Open despite back-to-back rounds of 69, but he has made the cut and finished in the top 25 in three of his four events since then. He had a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open behind Thomas Detry, and then finished solo 12th at The Genesis Invitational, in one of the strongest fields of the season.
Over his last 20 rounds, he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and is second in Total Strokes Gained.
Given his elite course history and strong recent showings, Berger is a boom-or-bust play this week. He’s high-risk, but the ceiling is definitely there to make him a perfect fit for tournament lineups. He has the potential to win this week, and he’s a great way to pay up for lineup differentiation based on his low ownership projection.
Taylor Pendrith $9,500
Pendrith actually has the highest median, ceiling and floor projections in the entire field, which is very unusual for a player with only the fifth-highest salary. This week, he also has the fifth-highest ownership projection but due to his high overall projections brings the second-highest SimLeverage of players over $9,000.
Pendrith has made the cut in two of his previous three appearances at PGA National and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six tournaments dating back to a top-10 finish at last fall’s Shriners Children’s Open. He had top-15 finishes at The Sentry, the Farmers Insurance Open, and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am before finishing T50 at The Genesis Invitational in his most recent start.
After taking last week off, Pendrith will look to resume his form from earlier in the season. Over the last 20 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green but has been held back by a struggling putter. Over the last two years, Pendrith has lost 0.5 strokes per round on Poa and 0.37 strokes per round on Poa Trivialis. On Bermuda greens, though, he has gained 0.25 strokes per round over that span. Since it’s a much better surface the move to Florida could give the 33-year-old Canadian just the boost he needs to get back into the winner’s circle for the second time in his career.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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