This week we go to a small-field, no-cut event at a new course, but still in Las Vegas. THE CJ CUP will be hosted at The Summit Club as many of the top players in the world gather to kick off their TOUR season. Scoring ability and ownership will be key to making our lineups different this week, as everyone will be guaranteed four rounds barring an unexpected withdrawal.
I dove in yesterday with our small-field GPP article, and you can find that here as a good place to start your lineup research. Matt Vincenzi’s course fit article provides some additional plays and perspective, as well as the cash game write-up from Landon Silinsky.
DraftKings has rolled out the now standard main GPP with the $15 Flop Shot, which is a $400,000 prize pool with $100,000 of that going to first place. All of the below will be tailored to winning that contest, which will require some pivots away from the chalk this week.
And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.
The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.
Top-Tier Plays
Dustin Johnson ($11,300)
I seem to be a bit higher on Dustin Johnson this week than most as he rates as one of the top two players in my personal models that I have been using this week. He doesn’t come in quite that high on some FantasyLabs Player Models, but he does rank third in the Vegas-Heavy Model. I believe by the end of the week, we will start seeing an ownership discount too.
I would much rather be early on DJ as I have been starting to see the signs of him returning to dominant form, and we know he can win a low-scoring shootout as he has done in the past. Right now, he is projected to be mid-to-upper teens in projected ownership, but I expect that to creep down as I think DFSers will get more comfortable paying down to avoid dipping into the $6,000 range. He’s the low man on the odds board, and if I can use him to get different while getting arguably the best win equity in the field, I’ll happily start my lineups with that leverage in large-field GPPs.
Abraham Ancer ($9,100)
There are a few players I like in this range, but one that I will go right back to is with Abraham Ancer. I had him covered in all formats last week, which burned me several different ways, and I know I was not alone in that. We will get an ownership discount on that alone and the added ugliness of his play that saw him lose more than six shots on approach at the Shriners.
In large-field GPPs, I can look past last week and grab possible single-digit ownership on a player that has shown the ability to bounce back from poor approach weeks. Everyone loved him last week, but now he has very little buzz on what we are projecting to be a very similar course and event. Sign me up.
Mid-Tier Plays
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800)
I mentioned it earlier with DJ, and the same applies to Tommy Fleetwood as I want to be early in getting on board. I see some signs that his game is starting to come together and show the form and ability that we are used to seeing from the Englishman.
He was a bright spot in a couple of formats at the Ryder Cup and rolled that into a nice finish at the Alfred Dunhill. I have no doubt he is carrying some confidence into a week where he is guaranteed four rounds and certainly has the scoring ability to be a factor in this event.
I love that Fleetwood is being completely overlooked but rates high in our Data-Driven Model, creating a fantastic leverage spot, which can be difficult in these small fields.
Justin Rose ($7,900)
Another spot that jumps off the page in our FantasyLabs Ratings for the CJ Cup is with Justin Rose. He checks in at eighth overall in the CSURAM88 Player Model but is only anticipated to receive less than 5% ownership. If you need a narrative, he may have a little extra chip on his shoulder after missing out on the Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits, and now he comes to tee it up on a Fazio track, which has always been favorable for him.
I really like the leverage we get in this spot on another Englishman, but also the ceiling and win equity which is hard to match at this price.
Value Plays
Joaquin Niemann ($7,400)
My general DFS opinion is that you can eat some of the chalk in the value section many weeks. There are simply players that are mispriced in this range for some tournaments, and this appears to be no different. Niemann is a solid play across nearly every metric I look at this week, with his low-scoring ability, and his best putting coming on bentgrass greens. Even at mid-teens ownership, I will have a lot of the Chilean in my lineups.
Alex Noren ($7,100)
Honestly, I was going back and forth here between Noren and Charley Hoffman. I’ll stick with my longshot pick, but I think both are viable for large field GPPs. Alex Noren, at one time, was a Top 20 ranked player in the world, but things fell off as he first tried to establish himself on the PGA TOUR. He started to show signs of turning that around last season, and I think he may be in store for some big things this year.
Similar to Niemann, Noren has a documented preference for bentgrass greens and rates as one of the best putters in this field on those surfaces. The Swede can get really hot with the flat stick, and that is part of the reason he rates out so well in lower-scoring events.
We should get him at single-digit ownership, and I see his ceiling as being higher than most which is nice for this price in GPPs.
Sleepers
Rather than go in-depth on a couple of guys below $7,000, I am going to give you a handful of them that I like for their scoring ability and upside. If you are playing multiple lineups in large-field GPPs this week, I would mix and match lineups with players in this range because there are plenty who are viable, but it’s hard to identify just one or two to be way overweight on in a group that we know has flaws.
Again, the biggest factor for me is scoring potential with Birdie or Better Rate and on par 5s. Those are the two areas I would focus on this week with no cut, which is why I would look hard at players like Keegan Bradley and Emiliano Grillo, who can’t quite putt well enough to contend, but if they are on for a couple of rounds can pile up the birdies.
Others like Cameron Davis and Erik Van Rooyen will likely find ways to make double bogey, or worse, that may affect their cut-making ability in other weeks. Still, at the Summit Club, they’ll get to keep going and turn in plenty of opportunities for eagles and birdies streaks. Lastly, as I mentioned in my small field write-up, Jhonattan Vegas is simply too good for his price. He’s been in good form and will be popular, so just keep that in mind to pair him with some of our leverage plays in large-field tournaments.
