Christmas NBA DFS Breakdown: Will Clippers-Lakers Live up to the Hype?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Merry Christmas! Wednesday features a five-game slate starting at 12 p.m. ET.

Both FanDuel and DraftKings are offering massive guaranteed prize pool tournaments for the Christmas slate, so today’s breakdown will be a little more detailed than usual. If you’re looking for even more coverage on the Christmas NBA slate, make sure to check out all the great content at The Action Network, including the NBA Christmas Day Mega Betting Guide.

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Boston Celtics (-3) @ Toronto Raptors – 213 total

The NBA has finally moved the Knicks off of Christmas day, so we all get to start the day with at least one gift under the tree. The Celtics and Raptors face off in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview at noon ET. That said, this is one of the least-exciting games from a fantasy perspective. Both of these teams rank in the top three in defensive efficiency, and the 213-point total is the lowest mark on the slate.

Celtics (108 implied points)

The Celtics are slightly favored despite being on the road, and they remain a little shorthanded. Gordon Hayward is expected to rejoin the starting lineup, but Marcus Smart has already been ruled out with an eye injury.

Kemba Walker has seen the largest boost in fantasy value with Smart off the court this season. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, compared to just 1.11 with Smart on the court. That makes him a solid option vs. the Raptors, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%.

Jaylen Brown has seen the largest bump in usage with Smart off the court, so it’s not surprising that he’s fared well with him out of the lineup recently. He’s scored at least 32.3 FanDuel points in five of his past six games. He remains affordable at $6,700 on FanDuel, and he ranks second on the team in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.

Jayson Tatum has been arguably the best producer for the Celtics recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.40 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he could see one of the largest drops in production with Hayward back in the lineup. His usage rate has decreased by -6.1% when sharing the court with Hayward this season. Tatum still deserves consideration on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%, but he could be an appealing fade candidate on DraftKings.

Speaking of Hayward, he’s a high-risk, high-reward option vs. the Raptors. He could be on a minutes limit in his first game back from injury, but he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season. He should garner low ownership, so he could be a GPP-winner if he plays more than expected.

As far as punt plays go, Daniel Theis has more appeal than most at just $3,900. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s currently projected for 23.6 minutes in our NBA Models.

Enes Kanter is another interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on DraftKings, thanks in part to an average of 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Raptors are a tough matchup, but they’re not as tough as usual given all their injuries in the frontcourt.

Raptors (105 implied points)

The Raptors have the second-lowest implied team total of the day, but they could still provide some value. They will still be without Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Norman Powell, which leaves them particularly thin in the frontcourt.

Serge Ibaka has been asked to pick up much of the slack. He’s coming off 41.7 minutes in his last contest, and he responded with 38.25 DraftKings points. Ibaka has averaged 1.2 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he could produce an even larger game if he sees a similar workload today.

OG Anunoby also commanded a monster workload in the Raptors’ last game. He played more than 42.5 minutes and recorded 38.0 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 67%.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris Boucher should round out the rotation in the frontcourt. RHJ saw drastically more minutes in their last contest, which makes him the preferred option. He’s an elite value play on FanDuel, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

The Raptors aren’t nearly as short in the backcourt, but that doesn’t really matter. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet have handled virtually all of the guard minutes this season – they’ve averaged a combined 74.7 minutes per game – and both players have been highly productive. Lowry has averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute with Gasol, Siakam, and Powell off the court this season, while VanVleet has seen a team-high usage bump of +6.7% in that situation.

Lowry stands out as an elite value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%, while VanVleet leads the team with a Bargain Rating of 75% on DraftKings.

Milwaukee Bucks (-3) @ Philadelphia 76ers – 220 total

This is another showdown between Eastern Conference powers, but this game is expected to feature a bit more scoring. While both of these teams are solid on defense, the Bucks have played at the fastest pace in the league.

Bucks (111.5 implied points)

Any analysis of the Bucks has to start with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been the most dominant force in fantasy this season. He’s averaged 2.00 DraftKings points per minute, an absolutely absurd number, and a lack of playing time has been the only thing keeping from some producing an even more eye-popping figure.

That lack of playing time has caused his salary to drop by -$1,100 over the past month on DraftKings and -$1,500 on FanDuel, which makes him an elite target vs. the 76ers. The Bucks are only favored by three and will be playing on a national stage, so he could be looking at a few additional minutes. If Giannis can get to around 35 minutes, no one on this slate can match his upside.

Khris Middleton has also suffered from a lack of playing time recently. He’s logged 30.9 minutes or fewer in nine of his past 10 games, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 on FanDuel over that time frame. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s another player who could benefit from a larger workload on Christmas. Middleton is a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.

Outside of those two, it’s hard to know where the production is going to come from for Milwaukee. George Hill has seen a larger workload following the injury to Eric Bledsoe, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.57 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He isn’t expected to play a ton of minutes – he’s currently project for 23.5 in our NBA Models – but he’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

Sterling Brown and Donte DiVincenzo have also seen a few additional minutes recently. DiVencenzo has by far the safer floor, but he doesn’t offer a ton of ceiling at his current price tag. Brown makes more sense at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his current salary.

Brook Lopez should handle the majority of minutes at the center position, and he’s scored at least 31.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. Unfortunately, he has a brutal matchup vs. Joel Embiid, who ranks second among qualified centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM).

76ers (108.5 implied points)

The 76ers have been a bit of a disappointment this season. They haven’t taken the step forward that many have expected, and they own just the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference.

That said, Joel Embiid has started to look like a dominant force again. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.60 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 57.75 DraftKings points in the past three games where he’s played at least 32.9 minutes. He should be one of the lower-owned superstars on the slate, which makes him an excellent leverage play in GPPs.

Embiid has yet to face the Bucks this season, but he absolutely dominated them in three matchups last year. He scored at least 70.25 DraftKings points in each contest, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +27.50 (per the Trends tool). The Bucks haven’t changed much from a personnel standpoint, so there’s no reason he can’t continue his domination this season.

Unfortunately, Embiid is the only member of the 76ers who found success against the Bucks last season and is still on the roster. Tobias Harris (-4.2 Plus/Minus) and Ben Simmons (-5.7 Plus/Minus) returned positive value just once in a combined five matchups.

Still, it’s hard to just completely write off both players. Harris leads the team with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and he’s coming off 54.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Simmons owns 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.

Jason Richardson is my favorite non-Embiid option for the 76ers, particularly on FanDuel. He leads the team with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and his salary has yet to reflect his increase in playing time. He was playing reduced minutes after returning to the lineup from an injury, but he’s logged at least 32 minutes in four straight games.

Al Horford rounds out the starting five for the 76ers, but he’s tough to trust with Embiid in the lineup. He’s averaged 38.04 DraftKings points in six games without Embiid, but his production drops to just 0.65 DraftKings points per minute when sharing the court with Embiid.

Houston Rockets (-11) @ Golden State Warriors – 226.5 total

This is expected to be the least competitive game on the slate, which is not surprising since it involves the Warriors. They have fallen from a dynasty to a joke in just one season. It’s not entirely their fault – they’ve been hit hard by injuries – but they rank just 27th in Net Rating.

Rockets (118.75 implied points)

The Rockets are going to provide a lot of value in this contest if the Warriors can keep it competitive. The Warriors rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency this season, and the Rockets have played at the second-fastest pace. That should result in a lot of possessions against a subpar defense.

The big question is how should you get exposure to this offense? You have two strong choices in James Harden and Russell Westbrook, but both players have a strong negative correlation with each other. You’re better off choosing one instead of stacking both together.

So who should you choose? Let’s start with Harden. He’s been the best producer in fantasy this season outside of Giannis, averaging 1.67 DraftKings points per minute over an average of 37.6 minutes per game. He’s currently averaging 38.6 points per game, which would be the highest scoring average since Wilt Chamberlain.

That said, he is a bit pricey at $11,600, and he hasn’t lived up to that price tag recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.72 over his past 10 games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past five contests. I would much rather pay up for Giannis if I’m going to roster someone in this price range.

Westbrook seems like the better pure value. He leads the team in Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.90 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His price has barely budged over that time frame, so he offers plenty of upside at $8,900 on DraftKings.

Clint Capela could be the strongest target on the Rockets. He’s been excellent recently, scoring at least 39.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and opposing centers have absolutely shredded the Warriors this season. Centers projected for at least 15 minutes have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.27 when facing Golden State, and Capela scored 57.0 DraftKings points in their first meeting this season. He’s underpriced at $7,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 88%.

The Rockets offer a few different value options to choose from, as well. P.J. Tucker is projected for the most minutes, but he’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season. Ben McLemore has been their most productive role player on a per-minute basis, but his role has dwindled recently with the team getting closer to full strength.

Danuel House might offer the best combination of projected role and salary. He’s dirt-cheap at $3,900 on DraftKings and is projected for 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.89.

Warriors (107.75 implied points)

The Warriors own the third-lowest implied team total on the slate, but they do have some potential upside. This is a significant pace-up spot for Golden State, and the Rockets are far from a defensive juggernaut.

D’Angelo Russell should be asked to carry the largest offensive workload for the Warriors. He’s scored at least 42.0 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s posted a usage rate of 33.8% in games without Steph Curry this season. He’s a particularly nice investment on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.

Draymond Green is another potential option at $6,100. He has been playing limited minutes after dealing with injuries earlier in the year, but he did play nearly 33 minutes in his last contest. His per-minute production is down this season, but don’t be surprised if he tries to put on a show in what will likely be his biggest game of the year.

Alec Burks has been crushing recently. He’s logged at least 30.75 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, including 48.5 DraftKings points in his last contest. He may see a few less minutes with Glenn Robinson III back in the lineup, but he’s been one of the Warriors’ best players recently. His role should be pretty safe moving forward.

Willie Cauley-Stein will be needed to combat the size of Capela on the interior, which makes him an appealing value at $4,200. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 26.5 minutes. He’s standing out as one of the best points-per-dollar plays on the entire slate.

Last but not least for the Warriors is Damion Lee. He’s too expensive on DraftKings, but his $4,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. His role figures to be the most impacted by the return of Robinson, but he’s still averaged a strong 0.84 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (-2) – 223 total

We have arrived at the main event. The two biggest title favorites square off in a massive matchup. There is tons of star power available, and this game could have a playoff-like atmosphere.

That said, don’t be surprised if that makes this game a bit disappointing from a DFS perspective. Both of these teams can defend, so it could be lower-scoring than expected if the intensity ratchets up. Matt Moore and Justin Phan have both identified the under as having some value in this contest o their Christmas Day podcast.

Clippers (110.5 implied points)

Kawhi Leonard is one of the biggest X-Factors on today’s slate. He’s putting together a dominant season for the Clippers. He’s on pace to set new career bests in usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate, but a pedestrian minute total has kept his fantasy production modest. If he sees a few additional minutes in a marquee matchup vs. the Lakers, he’s almost certainly underpriced across the industry.

Paul George is the 1B to Kawhi’s 1A, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant from a fantasy perspective. He’s averaged just 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which represents a significant decrease compared to his mark of 1.36 last year with the Thunder. Add in the fact that he’s also averaging more than six fewer minutes per game, and that’s how PG13 has fallen nearly 10 fantasy points per game from what we saw last season.

George’s upside is significantly lower than Leonard’s, and he’s not that much cheaper across the industry.

Montrezl Harrell has seen a massive -$2,100 price decrease over the past month on FanDuel, which makes him an appealing buy-low option. He’s still averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 31.4 minutes. Historically, players with comparable monthly salary changes and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.08 on FanDuel.

Lou Williams always has appeal for GPPs. He’s capable of getting buckets in a hurry, giving him an excellent ceiling for his price tag. He’s one of the best pure values on the slate on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Patrick Beverley is another excellent value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his salary.

Last but not least, JaMychal Green is a potential punt play on DraftKings at just $3,400. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should play a solid handful of minutes in this contest.

Lakers (112.5 implied points)

You’ll need to monitor the injury report for the Lakers prior to today’s slate. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are expected to play, but if either player is ruled out it would change the dynamics of the entire slate. Make sure to take advantage of Justin Phan’s new Labs Insiders tool to stay on top of any potential lineup changes.

Assuming both players do suit up, they will obviously warrant consideration. LeBron James has been stellar this season, averaging 55.28 DraftKings points per game. He’s currently on pace to lead the league in assists, which is something he’s never done before.

Still, I give the edge to Davis if choosing between the two. He’s been just as productive as LeBron recently, averaging 1.58 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he owns the superior individual matchup. He doesn’t have to deal with the individual defense of Leonard or George, which is something that LeBron will face for the majority of the game.

Outside of the big two, it’s hard to see much value with the Lakers. Rajon Rondo has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s not expected to see a ton of minutes with the team at full strength.

Kyle Kuzma is coming off 26.5 DraftKings points in his last contest, which makes him an interesting option at $3,900. Still, he played just 21.8 minutes in that contest, and he undoubtedly saw a bump in usage with LeBron out of the lineup.

Danny Green is probably your best bet if you want to target a Lakers role player. He’s projected for the third-most minutes on the team, and he’s capable of filling it up from behind the 3-point line. If he has a hot shooting night, Green has a nice ceiling at his current price tag.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets (-9.5) – 218.5 total

The last game of the night might feel like a bit of a letdown, but it could be the best game of the day for DFS. The Nuggets have one of the best matchups on the slate, and the Pelicans offer some of the best values on DraftKings.

Pelicans (104.5 implied points)

The Pelicans don’t stand out as an obvious target. The Nuggets are a brutal matchup – they rank fourth in defensive efficiency and 29th in pace – and the Pels’ implied team total is the lowest mark on the slate. Still, New Orleans owns five players with a Bargain Rating of at least 71% on DraftKings, and there are only nine other players on the slate who fit that description.

Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram stand out as the best pure values – they own Bargain Ratings of 87% and 81% respectively – and they offer the highest ceilings, as well. Both players have posted a perfect 100% Consistency Rating over the past month on DraftKings, so neither is likely to kill your lineups. Ingram has slightly higher upside, but Holiday has the better points-per-dollar projection in our Models.

Derrick Favors was expected to be on a minute restriction after returning to the lineup, but that appears to have gone out the window. He’s coming off 30.2 minutes in his last contest, and he’s capable of doing a lot of damage when given that much playing time. He’s averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season.

J.J. Redick is a similar type of player to Danny Green. He’s going to need to hit his shots to provide fantasy value, but he is one of the better shooters in the league. He also typically commands a higher volume than Green, which makes him an appealing upside play.

Last but not least, Lonzo Ball is always an intriguing value option. He’s capable of filling up the stat sheet, leading to an average of 0.94 FanDuel points per minute this season. He isn’t playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he has a solid ceiling at $4,800 on FanDuel.

Nuggets (114 implied points)

The Nuggets may be my favorite target on the slate. The Pelicans have been an extremely friendly team to target this season – they rank fifth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency – and the Nuggets’ implied team total ranks second on the slate.

Nikola Jokic has snapped out of his early season funk, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.98 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s also put up a positive Plus/Minus in nine of those contests, and he’s displayed a ceiling of over 60 FanDuel points. He leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends, and his $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 73%.

Will Barton has been a reliable fantasy producer for most of the season. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute, and no one on the team is projected for more than his 34.8 minutes. He’s reasonably priced at $6,500 on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.43 with a comparable price tag this season.

Jamal Murray will likely command minimal ownership, but he always possesses a high ceiling. He’s gone for at least 41.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, but his salary has remained affordable at $7,100. He’s one of the better pure values on the team on DraftKings, where his 3-point shooting is much more valuable.

Paul Millsap is an interesting punt play at just $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s obviously much more talented than that price tag indicates, but he’s projected for just 25.5 minutes. Still, he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that should be enough playing time for him to pay off his salary. His projected Plus/Minus of +5.29 leads the team on DraftKings.

After those guys, you’re getting into the wild cards. Gary Harris sees usually sees plenty of minutes, but he’s averaged a paltry 0.63 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s posted an “Upside” performance in just 23% of his games over the past month, so he’s not an ideal target for GPPs.

Malik Beasley could be worth a flier at the absolute minimum on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 20.6 minutes, and min-priced players with a comparable minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.06.

Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Clippers F Kawhi Leonard (2)