NFL Week 13 features a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Russell Wilson at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $19,800 as opposed to $13,200.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The Chiefs failed to cover last week vs. the Buccaneers, but their offense has been rolling recently. They managed to score 27 points last week against an elite defense, and they scored at least 33 points in each of their previous four contests.
They are expected to cruise to an easy victory tonight against the Broncos. They’re currently favored by 13.5 points, which gives them an implied team total of 32.5. The Chiefs put up 43 points in their first matchup vs. Denver this season, and that game was played at Mile High Stadium.
The Chiefs offense is built around Patrick Mahomes, who has become a massive favorite to win his second MVP award. He leads the league in a variety of categories, but his mark of 30 touchdowns to just two interceptions is probably the most impressive. Mahomes has been dominant from a fantasy perspective recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of his past four games. He’s tallied at least 33.8 DraftKings points in three of those contests, so he has plenty of upside despite his massive salary.
Mahomes has historically crushed in games with a comparable total. He’s played in 17 games with an implied team total of at least 30.0 points, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.00 on DraftKings in those contests (per the Trends tool). Unsurprisingly, he leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median, ceiling and Plus/Minus projection.
That said, this matchup is not exactly a cakewalk. The Broncos rank fifth in Football Outsiders‘ pass defense DVOA this season, and they also rank fifth in adjusted sack rate. The result is an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.0 for Mahomes on DraftKings, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate. Mahomes is obviously capable of succeeding in any matchup, but he carries just a touch more risk than usual.
One of the more interesting developments from Mahomes during his past four games is his increased reliance on his top targets. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have always been excellent fantasy producers, but Mahomes was willing to spread the ball around to some of his secondary pass catchers. However, Hill has seen at least 14 targets in each of his past three games, and Kelce has seen at least eight in each of his past four. That has given both players a sizable boost in fantasy value.
Hill is coming off a ridiculous performance in his last game, exploding for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns in the first quarter vs. the Bucs. He ultimately finished with 60.9 DraftKings points, which was one of the greatest fantasy performances from any receiver in NFL history.
His matchup is also much better than some of his teammates’. Hill plays the majority of his snaps in the slate, and the Broncos’ typical slot corner, Bryce Callahan, was recently placed on the IR. That means that Hill is expected to match up with Essang Bassey instead, and Pro Football Focus gives Hill a 55% edge. That’s the second-highest mark at the WR position in Week 13.
Kelce faces a much tougher task this week. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.5 on DraftKings, and Alexander Johnson has been a solid cover linebacker for the Broncos this season. Kelce still owns a huge edge in this matchup according to Pro Football Focus (+41%), but he figures to have to work a little harder than Hill.
Kelce struggled in his first meeting vs. the Broncos, finishing with just 6.1 DraftKings points, but that stands out as a major outlier in his game log. He’s finished with at least 16.2 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and he’s gone for at least 22.5 DraftKings points in five of them.
The Broncos don’t really have a true “stud” offensively. Drew Lock is their highest-priced player at $9,200 on DraftKings, but that makes him significantly cheaper than the Chiefs’ “big three”.
Lock missed Denver’s last game after he was deemed a high-risk close contact for COVID-19, but he will be back in the lineup tonight. He’s shown some flashes this year, but there has been a lot more negative than positive in his second NFL season. He’s recorded at least one interception in each of his past six games, and he’s finished with at least two picks in three of them. One of those games was against the Chiefs, and he managed just 14.96 DraftKings points in that contest.
Still, he’s hard to ignore at his current price tag. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98% on DraftKings, which is the second-highest mark on the slate, and he owns the third-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models. The Chiefs are also a solid matchup from a fantasy perspective, rewarding Lock with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.7.
Midrange
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been inconsistent in his rookie season, and he carries some added risk headed into tonight’s matchup. He was unable to practice on Thursday and Friday after dealing with a non-COVID illness. He’s also coming off just 4.3 DraftKings points last week vs. the Buccaneers.
Those factors will likely result in reduced ownership for CEH if he’s able to suit up. Much of the attention will be focused on the Chiefs’ passing game, which makes CEH the ultimate leverage play if you’re looking to go contrarian. He owns strong negative correlations with both Mahomes (-0.42) and Hill (-0.61), so those players will likely struggle if CEH finds success.
The Broncos will likely have both Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay available for this matchup, but it remains to be seen just how many carries will be available for both players. If the Chiefs are able to establish a big lead – which is obviously a distinct possibility – the Broncos may have to adjust to a pass-heavy game script.
Unfortunately, neither player has been particularly involved in the Broncos’ pass game recently. Lindsay has logged just one target over his past three games, while Gordon has logged two. We can obviously throw out last week’s results since they were playing with a practice squad WR at QB, but it’s still not an encouraging sign for their fantasy outlook vs. the Chiefs.
Sammy Watkins returned to the Chiefs’ lineup last week after missing the previous five games with a hamstring injury. He played on 72% of the offensive snaps in that contest and ultimately finished with seven targets, four catches, and 38 yards. Watkins doesn’t offer much standalone value at his current salary, but he’s an appealing stack partner with Mahomes.
Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and Tim Patrick should handle the majority of the pass catching duties for the Broncos, which makes them appealing targets. Jeudy has operated as the Broncos’ alpha WR following the injury to Courtland Sutton, and he’s expected to suit up despite being listed as questionable. That said, he finished with one of his worst performances of the season in his first meeting with the Chiefs, logging just four targets and 4.0 DraftKings points.
Patrick has had some solid games filling in for Sutton, including 19.9 DraftKings points in his last game with an actual QB. He leads the trio in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
Fant has the best individual matchup of the Broncos’ pass catchers, but that isn’t exactly saying much. PFF considers his matchup vs. Anthony Hitchens as dead even, while Jeudy and Patrick are both at disadvantages. Unsurprisingly, he owns the best Opponent Plus/Minus of the group at +1.7 on DraftKings.
Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman round out the Chiefs’ receiving corps, and you can make a case for both players. Robinson has emerged as a legit threat at the position, posting a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past four games, while Hardman has the speed to take any touch to the house.
Finally, the Chiefs D is also priced in this range, and they have plenty of appeal in this matchup. Lock is prone to turnovers and sacks, and those issues will only get magnified if the Chiefs force him into obvious passing situations.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Broncos D – These options are always in play in the single-game format. No one is going to play the Broncos D, but the kickers could be a decent source of value. This price range is thin today, and kickers are capable of getting into the low double-digits.
- Le’Veon Bell: $2,400 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel – Bell will likely become the chalk if CEH is unable to suit up, but he has some value even as a backup. He finished with five carries and two targets last week, and he scored a touchdown two weeks ago.
- K.J. Hamler: $1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel – Hamler is an interesting punt play today. He was drafted in the second-round last year and has blazing speed. He’s also played on a solid handful of snaps recently, logging at least 65% in four of his past five games. That’s a lot of playing time considering his salary.
- Darrel Williams: $1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – He’s the clear No. 3 option at RB for the Chiefs, but he has shown some ability as a receiver out of the backfield. He would become very interesting if CEH is ruled out.
- Nick Vannett: $600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – He played on 63% of the Broncos’ offensive snaps two weeks ago and finished with two catches for 24 yards. He also saw a target in the red zone, so he’s a candidate to score a cheap touchdown.
