The NFL season gets underway on Thursday night with a matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans starting at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Patrick Mahomes at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $18,900 as opposed to $12,600.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The Chiefs are 9-point favorites in this contest, giving them an implied team total of 31.5 points. They should be the clear preferred side from a fantasy perspective.
Four of the five priciest options in this contest all play for Kansas City: Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Mahomes stands out as the clear top option among the group. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he owns the highest ceiling projection as well. Mahomes has played in 11 career games with a comparable implied team total, and he has absolute feasted in those contests.
He’s averaged 29.34 DraftKings points per game and a Consistency Rating of 63.6% (per the Trends tool). He should have no problem shredded a Texans’ defense that struggled mightily vs. the pass last season. They finished just 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Mahomes owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.1 on DraftKings.
Mahomes should be owned in virtually every lineup, so the real question becomes should you roster him in one of the premium spots? It’s a pretty easy decision on FanDuel since he doesn’t cost any additional salary, but it’s a little murkier on DraftKings. I still think he’s well worth the extra $6,300 to get him at the captain spot, but you’ll have to get creative with the rest of your lineup.
The next question is who do you pair Mahomes with? Kelce, Hill, and CEH are all excellent option, but I’m giving the edge to the rookie RB. The Texans were dreadful at defending running backs in the passing game last season – they ranked just 26th in pass defense DVOA vs. RBs – and Edwards-Helaire specializes in catching the ball out of the backfield. He leads the trio with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20 on FanDuel.
On the Texans side, the only true stud to consider is DeShaun Watson. Most QBs tend to thrive as favorites, but Watson is one of the few exceptions. He’s actually been significantly better from a fantasy perspective as an underdog (+6.70 Plus/Minus) than as a favorite (+3.34). Overall, he averages nearly 2.5 additional DraftKings points per game in that situation.
It’s going to be tough to fit Mahomes and Watson in the same lineup on DraftKings – especially if you put one in the captain spot – but it’s definitely a viable strategy if you’re willing to roster some punts.
Mid-Tier
We can continue to build on our Chiefs’ stack by looking at a WR in this range. Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman both stand out, and both bring something to the table. Hardman is basically Tyreek-lite for the Chiefs. He can absolutely fly – he ran a 4.33 40 at the NFL combine – and he made several big plays during his rookie season. He scored six TDs during the regular season, and five of them went for at least 30 yards. He’s also expected to operate as the Chiefs’ punt and kick returner this season, so you could potentially stack him with Mahomes and the Chiefs defense. He ran one kickoff back for a touchdown in 2019.
That said, expect Hardman to be somewhat chalky. He was a trendy sleeper pick in fantasy leagues this season, so I would expect that to carry into the first week of the season.
With that in mind, Watkins might be the preferred target. He is slightly more expensive throughout the industry, but the Texans struggled against No. 2 WRs last season. They ranked 14th in DVOA vs. WR1s, 24th vs. WR2s, and 10th vs. “other” WRs.
The Texans have a few additional options to choose from in this price range. David Johnson has the potential to be a workhorse RB this season after being acquired for DeAndre Hopkins. DJ hasn’t been the same player after dealing with injuries the past two seasons, but he was considered one of the most talented RBs in the league. The Chiefs’ defense was significantly improved last year – they ranked seventh in pass defense DVOA – but their one weak spot was defending RBs in the pass game.
Will Fuller also has the potential to have a big game. He’s expected to take over the No. 1 WR role from Hopkins, and he’s historically been a solid producer when healthy. The Texans new No. 2 WR Brandin Cooks is also questionable, which would leave the team pretty thin at the position.
Values
- Randall Cobb – Cobb should operate the slot for the Texans this season, which gives him the opportunity to rack up catches in the middle of the field. Cobb did a solid job filling that role for the Cowboys in 2019, racking up 828 yards on 53 catches
- Harrison Butker – Kickers are always in play in showdown. That said, I wouldn’t necessarily want to pair him with Mahomes: They have a correlation of -0.22.
- Ka’imi Fairbairn – Fairbairn is also in play as a kicker, and he looks like a much better stacking option with his team’s QB. He owns a correlation of +0.29 with Watson over 16 games.
- Chiefs Defense – If you are going to play a defense in this game, the Chiefs are the side you want. Watson takes a ton of sacks – he was sacked a league-high 55 times last year – and the Texans have a significantly lower implied team total than the Chiefs.
- Jordan Akins – He stands out on FanDuel where he’s priced at the absolute minimum. He was named the “most improved veteran” at Texans camp this year, and the Texans’ TEs can provide some sneaky value. They combined for 20.5% of the team’s targets last year, so Akins has some upside if he can grab a larger share of those this season.
- DeMarcus Robinson – He catches passes from Mahomes, which is good enough for me as a punt play. He’s way down on the pecking order in the Chiefs’ passing game, but he’s dirt-cheap and has caught four TDs in each of the past two seasons.
- Darrel Williams – Williams might be the most interesting punt play on the slate. Everyone assumes CEH is going to step right into a big role as a rookie, but what if he doesn’t? Williams could potentially steal some touches from him early in the year, and he’s priced at just $1,800 on DraftKings. He owns a projected Plus/Minus of +2.66 at that salary, which trails only Mahomes’ mark on this slate.
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