Capping off Week 5 is an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders. Playing at home, the Chiefs are touchdown favorites, with the total set at 51.5 points.
Primetime games have a strong trend of going under the point total to start the year, but each of the last four games between these two teams has gone over the total. Let’s hope for a shootout, as several primetime games have been tough on the eyes.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Chiefs vs. Raiders Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Josh Jacobs Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
The Raiders finally got in the win column last week after losing their first three games by a total of 13 points. Running back Josh Jacobs was a significant reason, rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns. They may have found their ticket to success by feeding Jacobs after a slow start out of the gates for a hyped team this off-season. Jacobs’ 28 rushing attempts last week tied for the second-most in his career.
Scoring points is a must to keep up with the juggernaut Chiefs’ offense. However, the Chiefs’ defense has allowed 24 points per game, which is above average for points allowed this season. They have been solid on the ground thus far, but the key to the Raiders’ success will be keeping the ball away from the Chiefs’ offense and shortening the game with Jacobs running the ball 20+ times.
Through six games against the Chiefs in his career, Jacobs is averaging 62.5 rushing yards per game, despite tallying just 16 and 24 yards in two matchups last season. In our simulations, Jacobs rushes for 60 or more yards 72% of the time, making this the best player prop on the board. He has also recorded 129+ rushing yards in three of the Raiders’ last four games against AFC West opponents.
Travis Kelce Over 72.5 Points
After putting on a show on Sunday Night Football in Week 4, Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will look to replicate that performance in another primetime game on Monday Night Football tonight. Kelce had 92 receiving yards on a season-high nine receptions, including a touchdown on the game’s opening drive. As the Chiefs’ offense continues to find its groove without Tyreek Hill, Kelce will be the main focal point in the passing game.
Through the first four games of the season, Kelce leads all Chiefs pass-catchers in receptions, targets, yards, and touchdowns. He has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his last 10 games. Kelce’s 23.1% target share leads the Chiefs, and he’s seen at least seven targets in all four games. The Raiders’ defense has allowed 253.8 yards per game, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the league. Expect Kelce to get peppered again tonight.
Over the last nine games against the Raiders, Kelce has gone over this prop line in seven of them while averaging 98 yards per game. He has topped 100 receiving yards in five of those nine contests. For his career, Kelce averages 84.1 yards per game without Hill in the lineup. Everything is pointing towards the Kelce over, and that is where we will flag-plant our second player prop in this three-prop parlay.
Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline
The last prop in this single-game parlay features the Chiefs’ moneyline. This bet is very straightforward, but it makes more sense for this parlay than taking the Chiefs team total or the over in this game. Even with -355 odds on the moneyline, this parlay still has plenty of value. FanDuel Sportsbook is offering +439 for this three-leg wager, but Parlay IQ has the implied odds at +270.
Not only have the Chiefs been dominant at home recently, but they have also covered the spread in five of their last six home games against the Raiders. The Chiefs’ only loss was on the road two weeks ago against the Colts, where they only put up 17 points. If Russell Wilson and the Broncos can score 23 points against this Raiders defense, imagine what Patrick Mahomes and company can do tonight.
The AFC West division hasn’t been as tough as advertised, and the Chiefs remain the best team. Regardless if this game is a shootout or the under-bettors get another gift, the Chiefs will find a way to move to 4-1 with the Bills coming to town next week.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +270, but FanDuel is offering +439. That’s a good bit of value for this three-leg parlay.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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