Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds Preview: Two Predictions for Super Bowl LVII

Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds

• Chiefs Spread: -1.5 (-110)
• Eagles Spread +1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: 50.5 (-110/-110)

The Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) will play Super Bowl 57 on Sunday, Feb. 12 at 6:30 p.m. EST. During the regular season, the Chiefs and Eagles were the two best teams in the NFL, each winning 14 games and earning the 1-seed in their respective conference.

Ahead of kickoff, there are no shortage of storylines – injuries, Andy Reid facing his former team, and the Kelce brothers being on opposite sides of one another. Below, we take a look at the matchup on the field, and provide insight into what bettors can expect when the stars take the field at the end of next week.

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Eagles vs. Chiefs Super Bowl Preview

How did Kansas City get here?

Since losing 24-20 to the Bills at home in Week 6, the Chiefs have won 12 of 13 games, with their lone defeat coming by three points on the road against the Bengals.

The offense was led by presumptive league MVP, Patrick Mahomes, who led the NFL in passing yards (5,250), passing touchdowns (41), and QBR (77.5). Kansas City’s defense features multiple standout players, including Chris Jones, who leads the team with 17.5 sacks in 19 games played this year.

Following a bye week in the wild-card round, the Chiefs defeated the Jaguars 27-20 in the divisional round, despite Mahomes missing the majority of the first half with an ankle injury. Kansas City dominated the time of possession in that contest, holding the ball for over 35 minutes. Isaiah Pacheco had 101 yards of total offense in the winning effort as the team’s primary ball-carrier.

Heading into the AFC championship game, many pundits questioned the health of Mahomes’ knee, leading them to predict a second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl for Joe Burrow and company. Mahomes looked completely fine in the early portion of the contest, but was less effective in the second half after appearing to re-aggravate the injury on a rollout to his left. Still, he finished 29 of 43 on pass attempts for 326 yards and two touchdowns. After the Chiefs got the ball back with 30 seconds left in regulation, Mahomes engineered a game-winning drive that included a scramble attempt towards the right sideline in the closing seconds. The defense recorded five sacks and forced two interceptions in Kansas City’s 23-20 win over Cincinnati.

How did Philadelphia get here?

The Eagles finished the regular season third in offensive EPA and fourth in defensive EPA, winning an NFL-best 14 games (tied with the Chiefs) in the process.

In his second full season as the team’s starting quarterback, Jalen Hurts improved exponentially – finishing the campaign with a 22-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio, adding another 13 touchdowns on the ground with his legs. In 2021, Hurts ranked 22nd among qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worth-play percentage (3.9%), according to Pro Football Focus. Playing behind an improved offensive line in 2022, Hurts finished second among qualified signal callers in turnover-worthy-play percentage (1.9%).

On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia had four players – Haason Reddick, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, and Josh Sweat – finish with at least 11 sacks during the regular season. Fletcher Cox added another seven sacks. The Eagles ranked second in pressure rate, first in sacks per pass attempt, and sixth in interception rate, doing a masterful job of creating havoc for opposing offenses, and then finishing the play with a defensively-desirable result.

Similar to Kansas City, Philadelphia had a bye week during the wild-card round, which was much-needed for this team, considering the injuries to Hurts and right tackle Lane Johnson near the end of the regular season. In the divisional round, the Eagles defeated the Giants 38-7 in a game that was over before half time. In the win, Philadelphia out-gained New York 416-227 and had twice as many first downs as their opponent. The defense recorded five sacks and forced a Daniel Jones interception. The offense dominated the time of possession, running the ball 44 times for 268 yards.

Facing the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game, the Eagles unexpectedly had another easy path to victory after Brock Purdy suffered a torn UCL on San Francisco’s first offensive drive. Not long after Purdy left the contest, Josh Johnson – the team’s fourth-string quarterback – suffered a concussion, leaving the 49ers without a healthy signal caller on the roster. As a result, San Francisco struggled to put up much of a fight in a 31-7 loss.

Injury update

Having two weeks between the conference championship round and the Super Bowl, both of these teams will have plenty of time to heal their wounded stars.

Mahomes appeared to make significant strides in only seven days between the divisional round and the AFC championship game, making it unlikely that his ankle will be much of a concern against the Eagles. The larger concern for Kansas City is the status of their wide receivers, with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney each having left the game early against the Bengals. Their availability is worth monitoring in the coming days.

Hurts has continued to struggle to throw the ball deep with any amount of precision since hurting his shoulder in Week 15, but it has not mattered to this point. The Eagles have, undeniably, the best offensive line in the NFL, which has afforded Hurts plenty of time in the pocket to make good decisions with the football – and Hurts has not been reluctant to make plays with his legs since his injury either, with 29 rush attempts in three games. Left guard Landon Dickerson and right tackle Lane Johnson are each dealing with injuries as well, but both are expected to play in the Super Bowl.

What to expect in Super Bowl 57

Against the Bengals, the Chiefs pressured Joe Burrow 21 times on 49 dropbacks, per Matt McMullen. Do not expect the same level of success for Kansas City’s pass-rush against Philadelphia, which has allowed only 14 pressures on 53 dropbacks in their first two postseason games.

According to Warren Sharp, Kansas City finished the regular season ranked first in defensive EPA when getting pressure on the opposing quarterback this year, but they finished 32nd in defensive EPA when they failed to get pressure.

Expect Hurts and the Philadelphia offense to perform well on the NFL’s biggest stage. Take the over on their team total in the Super Bowl.

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• PICK: Eagles Team Total o25.5 points (-110)
• PICK: Jalen Hurts o1.5 passing touchdowns (-105)