The key to success in daily fantasy sports is research. With our Trends tool, research is easy.
Description
(written the Friday before kickoff)
Most of the time, as DFS players we have at least a general idea about which players are going to be highly owned in a particular NFL week. Within our Player Models, we also have ownership projections that you can use, and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
But I think what sometimes gets overlooked is the ‘chain reaction’ that is the result of one player being highly owned. If wide receiver Antonio Brown is going to be 40 percent owned at $9,400 in a particular week, that’s going to influence the most expensive running back, quarterback, and tight end options. The most expensive options at the other positions will still likely have ample opportunities to succeed, but their ownership levels will be somewhat reduced because, simply, you can’t pay up at every position.
This week, I’ll be exploring the ‘chalk lineup construction’ that results from the high ownership of certain players.
Details
At the time of this writing, the running backs with the highest projected ownership levels in this week’s FanDuel Player Models are as follows:
• David Johnson (31-40 percent)
• Melvin Gordon (21-25 percent)
• Ezekiel Elliott (13-16 percent)
• Le’Veon Bell (13-16 percent)
These are also the four most expensive FD running backs available this week. In other words, the four most expensive running backs are also projected to be the four with the highest ownership at the position. If that symmetry holds true, then we can probably assume two things:
1. Most lineups on FD this week will contain at least one of the most expensive running backs.
2. A higher than usual percentage of lineups will contain TWO really expensive running backs.
That also must mean the following:
3. People will be spending less than usual at the other positions.
So here’s the question: Knowing that the most expensive running backs are the most highly owned, where can I find value at the running back position?
The Trend
Since I have an idea, based on our ownership projections, that many players are either going to go expensive-cheap or expensive-expensive with their two running back spots, I’m going to look for running backs with moderate prices between $5,500 and $7,000.
Further, since I am assuming that I already know which running backs are going to be highly owned, I really don’t care what the average ownership within the trend has been. If I’m right about Johnson, Gordon, Elliott, and Bell all being highly owned, then this week’s matches should fall below the average ownership as part of the resulting chain reaction.
Matches
Since I’m not really trying to find sneaky value in this price range, I’ll go with something easy and obvious: Players whose projected ceilings are in the top decile this week.
Both Devonta Freeman and Jay Ajayi currently are projected for nine to 12 percent ownership, so while they are not exactly hidden gems they are still both significantly cheaper and expected to be lower-owned than the top four. Meanwhile, both DeMarco Murray and Lamar Miller have projected ceilings that rank within the top eight at the position and should be available at less than 10 percent ownership.
The prospect of fading Johnson against the 49ers is certainly daunting, but here I’ve laid out a clear path to gaining an advantage over a large portion of the field if everything breaks right. That’s all you can ask for in large tournaments.
Results
(Written Sunday night after games)
The ownership projections were mostly in line with what we saw on Sunday. While Johnson pushed 50 percent ownership in many large tournaments, the mid-range backs were available at much lower levels. Of course, the fade did not necessarily work this week, with the elite backs performing well. However, I did put myself in a position to leapfrog the field if things had broken a different way. Despite the stud performances, Murray was among the best RB plays of the week after factoring in price and ownership, although Miller, Ajayi, and Freeman really needed to find the end zone in order to return positive value.
Review
There are some weeks when the template for chalk roster construction becomes obvious. Some weeks, there are a couple of clear value running backs. Some weeks, Julio Jones faces the Buccaneers. Some weeks, Rob Gronkowski is the obvious choice at tight end.
In those cases, other players necessarily have lower ownership as a function of DFSers rostering the chalk. If everyone is saving at running back, that also means that most people are going to pay up at wide receiver. In those instances, I really like the idea of scouring through the ‘in-betweens’ for value. This week, I created a trend that usually sees its qualifiers average 13.7 percent ownership. None of these plays were really under-the-radar plays — I took clear lead backs with high ceilings — but, because of the slate’s chalk roster construction, three of the four backs I rostered were well below the trend’s average ownership. That’s not bad.
