The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features only three teams implied for 3.1 or more goals, but there’s still lots to like in terms of high-end options:
Center
- Connor McDavid @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,200
- Auston Matthews @ Carolina: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,200
- Jamie Benn vs. Calgary: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel (winger) – $7,900
- Tyler Seguin vs. Calgary: DraftKings – $7,000, FanDuel – $8,100
Winger
- Vladimir Tarasenko vs. Nashville: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,500
- Johnny Gaudreau @ Dallas: DraftKings – $ 7,500, FanDuel – $8,100
- Taylor Hall vs. Vancouver: DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,300
Defense
- Erik Karlsson @ Columbus: DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $7,100
- Roman Josi @ St. Louis: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $6,200
- Alex Pietrangelo vs. Nashville: DraftKings – $6,300, FanDuel – $6,100
Seguin and Benn have a solid 0.31 correlation coefficient in our Models, but that’s trending in the other direction now that Dallas has split them apart; they no longer skate together at even strength. Over the past year, Seguin has been a peripheral stat fiend (in the 94th percentile in shots+blocks) but over the past month he’s slipped down to the 75th percentile. So just keep in mind that lately he’s no longer as safe a choice in terms of his potential to put up those peripheral stats. With Benn merely in the 82nd percentile in shots+blocks, it’s hard to justify paying up for either of these top options in cash games. The Stars’ 2.9 implied goal total is just outside the top tier against a Flames team allowing the seventh-most shots per game (33.1) in the league.
If you’re fading Dallas, it might be practical to pay up in St. Louis. As a team, the Blues own a middling Corsi-For expectation. However, both Tarasenko and Pietrangelo rank in the 95th percentile or higher in shots+blocks and offer upside in goals per game, with each ranking in the 90th percentile over the past month. Nashville has allowed the most power play (PP) opportunities in the league; Tarasenko trails only Josi in the slate in regards to PP shots per game.
As usual, most of the Devils are priced way down – Hall doesn’t have a teammate within $2,000 of him on either site. Hall’s deserving of the recognition. He is one of only four players on the slate who rank in the 99th percentile in shots over the past month:
Of this quartet, Hall will likely see the lowest ownership. Factoring in his shooting upside, Hall very well could be the slate’s break-out performer.
Values
Alexander Edler (DraftKings – $3,900, FanDuel – $4,500): Targeting bargains in Vancouver proved highly profitable earlier in the season courtesy of Michael Del Zotto. But since Edler has returned from injury, only Tarasenko and Jake Muzzin (in today’s slate) have averaged more shots+blocks per game over the past month. Even skating for a team with the third-lowest implied total, Edler should be a viable route to peripheral stats at a discount facing a New Jersey team that has allowed the third-most shots in the league.
Esa Lindell (DraftKings – $3,800, FanDuel – $4,300): With the highest implied total on the slate (3.2), Dallas could be a rich repository of untapped value. Lindell appears to be underpriced relative to his recent peripheral stats (87th percentile shots+blocks) and his role on the second power play unit.
One-Timers
Artemi Panarin (DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $6,700): Columbus has the fourth-most shots on goal this year, and, not surprisingly, a top-five Corsi-For expectation in today’s slate. Panarin leads the team with 4.57 shot attempts per game over the past month (97th percentile overall) and is the cheapest of any in-play winger in the 95th percentile or higher. With the Blue Jackets bearing the slate’s highest implied total, Panarin – and the rest of the Columbus PP1 – should draw heavy ownership. Ottawa leads the slate in goals against per game over the past month (3.83) and represents the third-most favorable matchup expectation.
Jeff Skinner (DraftKings – $4,700, FanDuel – $5,500): Carolina has the third-most shots on goal this year. Skinner leads the team with 4.0 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile overall), the next closest player on his team being Justin Faulk (2.71 shots per game, 91st percentile). Skinner is a strong leverage play off of the Carolina PP1, which will likely be popular with the Hurricanes carrying the second-highest implied total on the slate.
Notable Stacks
And despite its popularity, that first Carolina Hurricane power play unit currently represents one of our highest-rated five-man DraftKings stacks:
The Hurricanes own the highest Corsi-For expectation of any team in the slate and have shown more goal-scoring upside lately, with six goals in two of their last four games. They still could be underpriced, especially Staal and Faulk who own a top-six Corsi-For at their respective positions today. With matchup expectations in the top-three on both sides, this game could easily turn into a shoot-out, but Carolina likely has a higher ceiling considering Toronto has allowed the fifth-most shots in the league this year.
With the highest Goals-For expectation on the slate, New York rates as one of our highest four-man stacks on FanDuel:
Ownership tends to align closely with team implied totals – the Rangers are technically in the top tier – and yet, from a Vegas perspective, no team really stands out today. Six teams are currently implied for 3.0 to 3.2 goals. That said, there’s special teams upside here for a Rangers team drawing the ninth-most power play opportunities facing a Detroit team allowing the ninth-most. We’ve talked extensively on NHL Inside the Lab about the value in adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, as we’ve said before, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, then it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to accrue a win.
Note: Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm Lundqvist as the starter.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, would be why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Columbus -167 vs. Ottawa
- New York -165 vs. Detroit
- St. Louis -138 vs. Nashville
- New Jersey -130 vs. Vancouver
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top three options that have already been confirmed/expected as starters:
- Frederick Anderson, Toronto @ Carolina (DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,300): 35.47 saves
- Robin Lehner, Buffalo vs. Edmonton (DraftKings – $7,100, FanDuel – $7,100): 31.10 saves
- Scott Wedgewood, Arizona vs. Los Angeles (DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $7,200): 30.26 saves
As of this writing New York has yet to announce a starter, but whomever is between the pipes stands out from a situational perspective at home with -165 moneyline odds against Detroit. They will likely be a viable option in cash games; the Rangers own the second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month on the slate and there should be plenty of opportunity for saves.
With the highest save prediction on the slate, Anderson could provide all kinds of upside today for Toronto. As we’ve said before, net-minding is a position laden with variance. You want to get a pad up on the pack? Enlist a low-owned goalie against a chalk offense. Even a game like this one, that is expected to be high scoring, could still somehow wind up hitting the under.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
