The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday we have a nine-game main slate that starts at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Today’s slate features two teams implied for 3.6 or more goals — the Penguins and Canadiens — and no defensemen priced among the 15 most expensive skaters on either site:
Center
- Connor McDavid @ NY Islanders: DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $9,100
- Sidney Crosby vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $9,000
- John Tavares vs. Edmonton: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,600
Winger
- Alex Ovechkin @ Buffalo: DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,800
- Vladimir Tarasenko @ New Jersey: DraftKings – $7,600, FanDuel – $8,200
- Taylor Hall vs. St. Louis: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $7,800
Defense
- Alex Pietrangelo @ New Jersey: DraftKings – $6,700, FanDuel – $6,300
- Roman Josi @ Columbus: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $6,200
- Shea Weber vs. Las Vegas: DraftKings – $6,400, FanDuel – $5,700
- Kris Letang vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $6,200, FanDuel – $6,800
With only one win during their recent five-game road trip, Crosby and the Penguins come home with the slate’s highest implied total at 3.8 goals against Arizona. That aligns with recent trends: Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 at home with the 12th-most goals for per game (GF/G) and second-fewest goals against per game (GA/G). On the road, the Penguins boast an uninspiring 4-6-1 record with the third-fewest GF/G and the most GA/G. Unsurprisingly, these drastic splits have directly impacted Crosby (per our Trends tool):
His 80.0 percent Consistency Rating at home could certainly regress, but Crosby’s peripheral floor should be safe, as he falls in the 97th-percentile in shots per game over the past month. The Coyotes have allowed the second-most goals and 10th-most shots, while also owning the fourth-worst penalty kill in the NHL.
The Penguins are expensive, so also rostering a winger like Ovechkin would be tough in cash games. That said, he falls in the 99th-percentile in shots, power play shots, and goals per game over the past month and carries immense upside in tournaments if he sees reduced ownership. Ovechkin has scored 44.9 percent of his goals on the man advantage over the past three seasons, and though Buffalo has allowed the third-most goals, they’ve also taken the fifth-fewest penalties this year.
There’s a lot to like at defensemen. Pietrangelo, Josi, Weber, and Letang all fall in the 97th percentile or higher in shots+blocks per game so it may come down to how you decide to attack these high implied total games in your stacks. Weber owns a 97 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and the Canadians lead the slate in Corsi-For this season with the second-highest Corsi-For expectation on the slate.
Values
Jaccob Slavin (DraftKings – $4,000, FanDuel – $4,100): With the fourth-highest implied total on the slate (3.0), Carolina could be a great place to start digging for value. Slavin appears to be egregiously underpriced relative to his recent peripheral stats (97th percentile shots+blocks) and his role (92nd percentile time on ice).
Andrew Shaw (DraftKings – $4,000, FanDuel – $3,400): There could easily be four Montreal skaters slated as “values” today but Shaw stands out on the first line and first power play unit for the Canadiens. Of all players priced at $4,000 or below on DraftKings, Shaw has the most shots+blocks over the past month (3.29 per game) and falls in the top-20 percentile in goals. Shaw may even be a better value on FanDuel where he owns a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
One-Timers
Jeff Skinner (DraftKings – $6,500, FanDuel – $6,500): The Hurricanes could go under-owned tonight, as their implied total is just outside the top tier, but their matchup against Florida rates as the third-best in regards to Corsi-For expectation. The Panthers have allowed the most shots in the league and have the second-worst penalty kill. His price has gone up $900 on DraftKings over the past month, but the matchup sets perfectly for Skinner, who ranks in the 98th and 93rd percentile in shots and power play shots, respectively.
Johnny Boychuk (DraftKings – $4,100, FanDuel – $4,500): It’s tough to roster a player without significant power play time, but Boychuk’s peripheral stat upside (99th-percentile in shots+blocks per game over the past month) makes him a tempting option in tournaments.
Notable Stacks
Unsurprisingly, one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks currently belongs to the Montreal Canadiens:
Montreal’s skaters are likely underpriced because the team has scored the ninth-fewest goals, but they also are leading the league in shots per game (38.1) and have drawn the third-most penalties. At $6,300, Max Pacioretty is riding a five-game point streak, and he ranks in the 99th percentile in shots, 99th percentile in power play shots, and 97th percentile in shots+blocks over the past month. Montreal has the fourth-highest matchup expectation on the slate against a Vegas team that has allowed 4.4 goals per game over its last five.
Pittsburgh rates highly on both sites, but it’s much easier to jam in a Penguins stack on FanDuel:
The Coyotes are 1-7-1 on the road this year, allowing the second-most goals in the league away from home ice. Conor Sheary correlates well with Crosby and Hornqvist at even strength, but he does not skate on the Penguins’ top power play unit, so pivoting to a high-upside goal-scorer like Phil Kessel could be wise in tournaments. The Penguins have by far the best matchup expectation on the slate.
Goalies
Our new save prediction metric is something we spent a ton of time on this offseason, and it takes into account a multitude of factors:
- Opposing team’s average shots
- Team’s average shots allowed
- The goalie’s goals against average (GAA)
Now that we have a few weeks of data, save prediction should be a big part of our process at goaltender. Wins are heavily weighted in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, and the slate features some massive home favorites:
- Pittsburgh -275 vs. Arizona
- Montreal -210 vs. Las Vegas
- Calgary -185 vs. Vancouver
At the time of this writing the Penguins have not announced a starting goalie, but whoever suits up should be in a decent spot to accrue a win. Goalies as comparable home favorites have historically posted a +3.92 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 69.4 percent Consistency Rating.
As the second-largest moneyline favorite, Charlie Lindgren (St Cloud State University alumni) stands out as a solid value option on both sites. He posted a 38-save shutout on Sunday in his first action since being called up from the AHL, and although Montreal has allowed the seventh-fewest shots on goal this year, they’ve also allowed the fourth-fewest goals.
As heavy underdogs, Roberto Luongo and Antti Raanta carry a ton of upside in tournaments — goalies tend to be low-owned as road underdogs — with the two highest save predictions on the slate. At a position with a ton of variance, you can gain a huge edge on the field by rostering a low-owned goalie who steals an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
