Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
“Should I Play One Lineup or Multiple Lineups?”
This is a common question for new DFS players, and the answer is usually the same: “It depends.” Are you risk averse? What does your game selection look like? What’s your goal in DFS: Are you looking just to have some fun or do you want to grind out some profits?
When it comes to risk aversion, I’m somewhere in the middle. I prefer to play a single lineup each week — and some people might think that’s risky — but 80 percent of my games are mostly head-to-head contests, which help mitigate that risk. The other 20 percent I throw into high-dollar single-entry tournaments. I’ll occasionally enter single-entry double-ups if I can’t get enough action through head-to-heads. I typically want at least 30 head-to-heads at any given buy-in level. My stats from the 2017-2018 NFL season so far are below:
You can see the single-lineup approach has been good for me. I’ve steadily cashed head-to-head games while allowing myself to capture the upside of guaranteed prize pools at the same time. If you think this could be a viable approach for you, here are the key takeaways:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Keep it simple.
Addition By Subtraction
For those of you new to FantasyLabs, Plus/Minus is one of our signature metrics. Plus/Minus is actual fantasy points minus expected fantasy points. Our expected fantasy points baseline is calculated by looking at historical performance and salary data.
For the Week 10 slate my lineup construction is starting at the quarterback position. Matthew Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick are the only quarterbacks on the DraftKings main slate projected to outscore their salary-based expectations by at least two points. Stafford is in a solid spot against the Browns, and the Lions boast the slate’s third-highest team total at 27.5 points. Stafford will be high-owned as he leads quarterbacks with a 17-20 percent ownership projection against a Browns defense that plays to the Lions’ strengths. The Browns defense ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ pass Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and first in run DVOA. The Lions have a top-10 pass rate and bottom-10 run rate, scoring 82 percent of their red zone touchdowns via the pass.
With the loss of Jameis Winston (shoulder) for a few weeks, Fitzpatrick steps into the starting role for Tampa Bay and leads all quarterbacks on DraftKings with a +2.58 Projected Plus/Minus. While he’s priced as the QB15, he has the 10th-highest floor projection among the slate’s quarterbacks. Although Stafford and Fitzpatrick have similar Projected Plus/Minus values, they have different ranges of outcomes, and their salary difference will force you into different roster constructions. Using our Trends tool, we can see quarterbacks with data similar to Fitzpatrick’s have historically averaged 17.17 DraftKings points with a +1.66 Plus/Minus. The matchup aligns for Fitzpatrick, as the Jets have allowed 246.3 passing yards per game, ranking 21st in pass DVOA, and they’ve surrendered 2.11 touchdowns per game — the second-highest mark in the league.
Volume + Red Zone Carries = Fantasy Production
It’s no secret that FanDuel is a more touchdown-dependent site, given that DraftKings uses full point-per-reception scoring and FanDuel uses only half PPR. Due to this, I created a trend on FanDuel that seeks out running backs seeing both volume and red zone work. Week 10 came up with three matches. Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, and Le’Veon Bell are the only running backs seeing at least 20 carries per game and three red zone opportunities over the last month. Historically, running backs to match for this trend have averaged 15.73 FanDuel points with a +1.71 Plus/Minus.
This looks like the ideal spot to plug in Howard, as the Bears are favored (-5.0) for the first time this season. Since Mitch Trubisky took over at quarterback, Howard is averaging 25.8 touches per game and seeing a touch on 60.6 percent of his snaps, which is a higher than the touch rates for Bell, Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, and LeSean McCoy. Carlos Hyde is averaging 6.8 targets per game over the last six weeks, which is fourth-best among running backs. Hyde vs. Howard is razor close and may come down to which one fits best with your roster construction. Hyde is $500 cheaper on FanDuel, which can go a long way.
Model Citizens
If you were to look at our Pro Models, you’d notice Adam Humphries is either near or at the top of almost all of them on DraftKings. Humphries trails only Bilal Powell in Projected Plus/Minus. With Mike Evans serving his one-game suspension, Humphries should see an increase in usage. He won’t be out there in two-wide sets, but he’ll slide into the slot, where he’s run 83.0 percent of his routes this season. Humphries draws a favorable matchup against Buster Skrine, who grades as PFF’s No. 80 corner out of 116 qualifiers.
Powell has an absurd +4.62 Projected Plus/Minus. Historically, running backs with a Projected Plus/Minus of at least 4.0 have averaged 14.15 DraftKings points with a +4.53 Plus/Minus and massive 67.8 percent Consistency Rating. He’ll easily be the most popular player on DraftKings, as his projected ownership is sitting at 51-60 percent. As a single-lineup player, I don’t care about ownership. I just want to roster the best plays. Sometimes that leads to my lineup being loaded with chalk; sometimes my lineup is contrarian without trying to be. At the very least, Powell is a block play.
Tight end is a volatile position, and I made plenty of mistakes in my early DFS days by rostering tight ends with low floors. After being held to one catch on four targets in Week 9, Cameron Brate has decreased $400 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Brate makes an even stronger play with Evans out, and he currently has the fourth-highest projected floor on DraftKings. Brate is also one of eight tight ends seeing at least 15 percent of team target and yardage shares since October, and tight ends with that usage have historically averaged 12.33 DraftKings points during that span. He leads all tight ends on DraftKings with six Pro Trends and is tied with Rob Gronkowski with eight Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Closing Thoughts
My Week 10 thought process had led me to start filling my rosters at the quarterback and tight end positions first and then going from there. Deciding to roster Stafford or Evan Engram will lead to different constructions than if you were to start off with Fitzpatrick or Brate. Or maybe you want to roster Antonio Brown with Bell together, instead of one or the other. This will force you into a lower pricing tier at the other positions, but there are plenty of options to choose from this week. It may also give you a unique roster build, as some people are afraid of rostering two skill position players together, but Brown and Bell have a positive correlation together at 0.23. Given the reasonable cost and projected usage of the Buccaneers players (Fitzpatrick, Brate, and Humphries), I have no issue rostering them together because of what it allows you to do with the rest of your roster, and in our brief nine-game sample of them playing together they are all positively correlated.
Good luck in Week 10!
News Updates
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