So you have the opportunity to roster Tom Brady with the New England Patriots as heavy favorites and the owners of a huge implied team total — it’s a no-brainer decision, right?
The chalk play at quarterback this past week, Brady was one of the more popular plays at any position. His ownership levels can largely be attributed to his Patriots being 14-point home favorites against the Washington Redskins on Sunday. Popular opinion was that Brady should have no trouble accumulating points as the Patriots rolled to another victory.
Despite what was viewed as a “can’t-miss” matchup, Brady produced a lackluster performance and those who opted to roster him may now be suffering from a bit of buyer’s remorse when looking at their bankrolls this week. Should we have been that surprised with the poor return on investment from Brady in this matchup though?
Over the previous three and a half seasons, Brady and the Patriots have been double-digit favorites on an impressive twelve occasions. Over these twelve games, Brady has averaged a pedestrian 19.33 DraftKings (DK) points. To help gain some context, consider that over every other game within this timeframe, Brady has averaged 21.62 DK points.
While looking at point production is certainly relevant, let’s also consider how Brady compared to his contemporaries in each of these weeks.
Not only has Brady been underperforming in regards to his own lofty standards, but he has also been a disappointment when we compare him to the other quarterbacks around the league. With an average finish of QB14, the veteran Patriot signal-caller has struggled to outpace even average quarterback assets in these matchups.
These results are further reinforced by Brady’s performance in relation to his Plus/Minus in these game scenarios.
Using the Fantasy Labs Trends tool, we’re able to examine his last four games as a double-digit favorite. Brady has failed to hit his Expected Points total in three of the four games and has averaged -1.78 points below his Expected Points total over the course of these matchups.
Measured against other quarterbacks in comparable situations, Brady’s inability to perform in such matchups is further exposed.
Once again utilizing the Trends tool, we’ve identified 30 other quarterbacks that have been a double-digit favorite over the past couple of years and have also recorded at least 12 pass attempts in the game. We can see that any quarterback not named Tom Brady has a Plus/Minus of +0.41 points under identical situations.
What appears to be a plus game situation for the rest of the league has somehow led to sub-standard performances from Brady. Are these results simply an anomaly? Or are they indicative of what we should expect from him in comparable matchups in the future?
We can look to the Patriots’ success in these games — they are 11-1 in said matchups — for possible answers. New England has steamrolled its opponents in the first halves, outscoring them 181-95. While this may not seem concerning due to the common sentiment that Bill Belichick is willing to run up the score on his opponents, this doesn’t appear to have been the case in these matchups. The Patriots have opted to let up on the gas in the second halves, outscoring opponents by a far more modest 170-115 total.
Belichick’s ability to game plan and take these weaker opponents out of the game early is not an optimal situation for a quarterback. Brady may not be producing simply because the Patriots don’t need him to.
Lending a bit of credence towards the theory of Belichick pulling back the reigns late in these matchups is the production of certain ancillary position groups on the Patriots.
While Rob Gronkowski has been a victim of Brady’s decreased production in these games — 16.63 DK points vs 19.76 DK points — Julian Edelman (in the time since Wes Welker has departed the Patriots) and the compilation of the Patriots’ receiving backs — Danny Woodhead, Shane Vereen and Dion Lewis — have been the beneficiaries.
Edelman and the Patriots’ designated receiving back of the moment function in very comparable roles within this offense. Each runs safe, chain-moving routes. These low-risk routes have long been a favorite of the Belichick-Brady offense, often supplanting the running game altogether.
Seeing Edelman’s ability to maintain his production, and the uptick from the receiving backs, despite down games from Brady, are indicative of a more conservative chain-moving game plan in these matchups. If he’s not being asked to push the ball down the field, it’s only reasonable that we’d see these reduced numbers from Brady.
Knowing that the Patriots have two more games this season in which they will likely be double- digit favorites — Week 14 at Houston and Week 15 hosting Tennessee — how can we utilize this information?
With public perception being that Brady is more likely to produce a great fantasy outing in such matchups, these situations set up as an ideal time to fade him. By fading Brady in what we’ve now identified as sub-optimal situations, it will allow us to gain an immediate advantage over a large portion of the field in GPPs if his results follow the established trend.
Price notwithstanding, pivoting to Edelman or whoever assumes the Patriots’ receiving-back role are reasonable ways to gain exposure to these matchups without taking on the risk of rostering Brady. The exact value of such a pivot will become clearer as we approach Weeks 14 and 15 and have relevant pricing information available to us.
Next time you’re faced with a lineup decision in a week where the Patriots are heavy favorites, consider differentiating yourself from the public and fading Brady. As we’ve seen, your bargain- bin quarterback may just outscore him anyway.
