Justin Bailey is a single-lineup player who uses the FantasyLabs Tools to research slates and build daily fantasy rosters. This series — The Single-Entry Savant — highlights the tools he uses and methodology he applies to construct his lineups.
Single Lineup Synopsis
I’m a single-lineup player who generally plays 80 percent of my action in head-to-head games and the other 20 percent in single-entry tournaments. There are an abundance of decisions to make on a weekly or daily basis in DFS, but one thing that remains constant in my process each week is my game allocation:
- Try for at least 30 head-to-heads at a given buy-in level. Otherwise, enter some single-entry double-ups to supplement.
- Thirty $5 head-to-heads are safer than a $100 and $50 head-to-head.
- Stick to single-entry GPPs for your tournament allotment.
Remember: Keep it simple.
Run Cam Run
Looking at our Player Models, Cam Newton is one of two quarterbacks who is averaging at least six rushing attempts over the past month (he’s averaging eight). Historically, quarterbacks who are averaging at least six rush attempts over the last month have averaged 19.37 DraftKings points per game with a +2.54 Plus/Minus and stellar 61.1 percent Consistency Rating. Over Newton’s past four games, he’s averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game just from his rushing stats. He draws a Packer defense that has been generous to opposing offenses, allowing a on 39.9 percent of their drives, which is the second-highest rate among defenses.
I don’t normally start my rosters with a quarterback, but Newton is in one of the best spots for signal callers and he comes in with the second-highest Floor Projection on DraftKings and FanDuel, trailing only Russell Wilson. The addition of Aaron Rodgers on the opposite side only boosts the chances that this game shoots out. This game currently boasts the main slate’s third-highest Vegas total (47) with a spread of just three points.
Le’Veon Bell’s Floor Projection is Every Other Running Back’s Median Projection
Once upon a time, we had to debate whether to be a part of team “jam ’em in,” which consisted of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Now, we only have to debate whether to be on team “jam him in.” More often than not, I am jamming in Bell because he arguably has the best floor and ceiling among all the positions we use in DFS.
Bell is one of three running backs in our Player Models that has at least an 11-point Floor Projection on DraftKings, which is within 3.5 points of 13 other running back’s Median Projections. Historically, running backs who have a Floor Projection of at least 11 points have averaged 18.64 DraftKings points per game with a 3.22 Plus/Minus and a 60.3 percent Consistency Rating. Some players may be scared off on DraftKings by his $9300 price tag and 2 percent Bargain Rating, but even then, he’s still worth it due to his sheer volume of looks. Bell is the only player in the league who is seeing over 40 percent of his team’s offensive touches.
He has the pleasure of facing a Patriots defense that ranks 32nd in rush Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 21st in pass DVOA against running backs. Bell’s 8.3 targets per game since Week 8 lead all running backs and rank 20th among all positions. His .94 DraftKings points per touch trails only Todd Gurley‘s 1.09 among running backs who’ve seen at least 18 touches per game over the past six weeks. Bell should make for a better price-sensitive play on FanDuel where he costs $9400 with a 98 percent Bargain Rating, but he’s firmly in play on both sites and will be a staple of my lineups.
Devin F(loor)unchess
Devin Funchess currently sits atop the Adam Levitan Player model on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 15. I’m always chasing receivers that should set up well with a high floor since I only play one lineup per site. Funchess fits that bill as he is one of five receivers on the main slate with a Floor Projection of at least 6.0 points on FanDuel. Historically, receivers on FanDuel with a Floor Projection of at least 6.0 have averaged 12.15 points with a +1.11 Plus/Minus.
Since Kelvin Benjamin was traded, Funchess has soaked up 28 percent of the Panthers’ target share and 42 percent of their air yards. He’s got an excellent matchup as the Packers rank 31st in pass DVOA against No. 1 receivers, allowing 8.6 targets and 83.3 yards per game. Funchess will see a mix of Davon House and Damarious Randall, who both rank 88th or worse in PFF’s coverage grades among 121 qualifiers. He’ll likely be popular as we have him projected for 17-20 percent ownership on both sites, but it makes sense when you consider the factors in his favor on Sunday. It’s also a bonus that Funchess has a strong .75 correlation coefficient with his teammate Cam Newton, as I’ll be stacking them together.
Closing Thoughts
I encourage all of you to tinker around with our Trends tool to create your own. I’ve created numerous trends that have put me on players I wouldn’t think of targeting in a given week. Not only will you find certain players you may not have thought of, but you’ll get an idea of how certain players perform under certain circumstances and whether or not they fit into your style of play. I use the Trends tool, Vegas Dashboard, Correlations Page, and Matchup Page every week when constructing rosters. Also, as we get closer to Sunday, don’t forget to check out our new Player Props page.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our NFL news feed.
