With just two events remaining in the FedExCup Fall, the PGA TOUR heads from Mexico to Bermuda for this year’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship. With the finish line just around the corner at the RSM Classic next week, it’s time for players to make a final push to improve their status for next year. For those near the top of the FedExCup Fall standings, that means qualifying for signature events, and for those lower in the rankings, the focus is finishing in the top 125, which locks up a full-time PGA TOUR card next season.
As temperatures get chilly for many, the setting for this week’s tournament will be extremely tropical as the PGA TOUR returns to Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. The course features beautiful views, plenty of ocean views, and resort conditions that typically result in low scoring. Along with hilly conditions and tough par 3s, wind, and weather have the potential to add difficulty to the course. The par 71 is a government-run course designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1970 and is shorter than normal by PGA TOUR standards.
Last year, Camillo Villegas turned back the clock and got the win at this event. Both shorter hitters and longer hitters have contended over the past few years with winning performances from strong putters like Seamus Power and Brendan Todd. All three of those players are back looking for another win in Bermuda, and Power is joined by Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Ben Griffin, Doug Ghim, and Patrick Rodgers as the most expensive plays in the field. Last week’s winner, Austin Eckroat, is not in the field, but ZOZO winner Nico Echavarria and Sanderson Farms Championship winner Kevin Yu are each looking for a second win in the FedExCup Fall.
On this layout, the fairways are fairly narrow, leaving players plenty of wedge opportunities. Larger than average greens typically lead to multiple short to mid-range birdie putts that players will need to convert in order to post low scores and stay in contention. Strokes Gained: Approach will still be our focus metric while highlighting putters who are at their best on Bermuda greens–which this week refers to both the course location and the kind of grass on the putting surface.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Mackenzie Hughes $10,300
Hughes has exactly the kind of short game that profiles well at Port Royal, so even though he’s playing it for the first time, he makes sense as a pay-up source of leverage. He has the highest SimLeverage of all players with a salary over $8,500 since he has the highest Perfect% in the field but only the fourth-highest ownership projection.
The Canadian comes to Bermuda with good momentum after exceeding salary-based expectations in eight straight tournaments dating back to June. He finished T4 and T8 in his two FedExCup Fall events and has five top 10s on the season.
Hughes leads the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over the last 24 rounds. He’s also been very good in windy conditions, which are expected this week.
In his career, Hughes has two PGA TOUR victories, and both came in fall events. He starts the week 51st in the FedExCup points and 63rd in the Official World Golf Ranking. He should be able to contend if he can figure out these greens quickly, and is a great source of leverage compared to his high ceiling and high floor.
Matti Schmid $9,100
Schmid is another international player who I think is the right fit for the course. With Hughes, that’s based on profile, but with Schmid, it’s based on past results. He has the third-highest SimLeverage of the players over $9,000 and ranks No. 11 in ceiling projection and No. 9 in Perfect%.
His ownership projection is lower following a missed cut last week at the World Wide Technology Championship, but he still has plenty of momentum from earlier this fall. Before the slip-up last week, he had made nine straight cuts on the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour, including top 20 finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the Black Desert Championship, and the Shriners Children’s Open, where he finished T3.
He’ll look to shake off that bad week with a stronger showing in Bermuda, where he finished solo third last year and also made the cut in 2022.
Even after his two tough rounds in Mexico, Schmid ranks second in the field in Total Strokes Gained, third in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and ninth in Strokes Gained Approach over his last 16 rounds.
Last week’s whiff should keep his ownership in check, but he can definitely still contend at this event if he has his form back from earlier this Fall. His salary of barely over $9,000 is very easy to work with as well.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Daniel Berger $8,900
Berger has the second-highest SimLeverage of the players, between $8,000 and $10,000 since his ownership projection is under 10%.
Berger is making a late push to keep his PGA TOUR credentials with a strong finish to the season. After missing the cut at the Procore to start the FedExCup Fall, he posted a seventh-place finish followed by a T35, T39, and T20 to climb to No. 124 in the standings coming into this week. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four weeks and ranks sixth in Total Strokes Gained over his last 16 rounds.
Before his back injury, Berger was a top-10 player in the world. He knows how to win with four career PGA TOUR victories, but even a strong finish this week should make keeping his card achievable with a strong showing at The RSM Classic.
He’s climbing back to fantasy relevance during his fight to stay a full-time member, and he is worth a shot under $9,000 this week based on his recent form and upside.
Kevin Yu $8,100
Yu claimed his first PGA TOUR win a the Sanderson Farms Championship just a few weeks ago, but people are still overlooking him in this field based on his ownership projection of around 8%. Yu has the highest SimLeverage of all golfers over $8,000 and the third-highest in the entire field. Of the players under $9,000, he has the fourth-highest Perfect%.
At Port Royal, Yu finished T3 two years ago and T30 last year. His overall well-balanced game and good short game make him a strong fit for the layout.
After his win, he missed the cut at the Shriners, but he looked strong on his way to a T16 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, where he started the week 65-68-66 before fading to a T16 with a 71 on Sunday.
This course is a great fit for him, and getting him at this salary and ownership projection makes him an awesome GPP option.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Rico Hoey $7,900
Hoey has been in my picks more than any other player since this past summer, and I’m still very high on him, especially at under $8,000. Hoey has the second-highest ceiling projection in the entire field behind only Seamus Power ($10,500), and he also brings the highest SimLeverage in the field with an ownership projection of barely over 10%. He has the third-highest Perfect% in the entire field and seems remarkably underpriced based on projections.
Hoey has made 12 straight cuts and exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of those 12 tournaments. He has surged to No. 88 in the FedExCup Fall standings and ranks fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 36 rounds. He also ranks sixth in Total Strokes Gained over that span.
This will be Hoey’s first tournament in Bermuda, but he has shown that he can dismantle this kind of course and post very low scores. He’s already proven he deserves a regular spot on the PGA TOUR next season, but he’s still looking to claim his first victory before the season wraps up.
Vince Whaley $7,700
Whaley has the second-highest ceiling projection of players under $8,000 behind only Hoey, and his ownership projection is also right around 10% like Rico’s. He has the fourth-highest Perfect% of the options under $8,000 and should be set up to continue his recent roll as he returns to Port Royal, where he has had success.
In his last seven tournaments, Whaley has exceeded salary-based expectations six times, dating back to a runner-up finish at the Barracuda Championship. He’s had a strong Fall season with a pair of T16 finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Shriners Children’s Open. On that run, Whaley leads the field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his last 36 rounds and in his last eight rounds.
His short game has played well at Port Royal in the last two years, resulting in a T7 in 2021 and a T8 last year. He and Hoey are both excellent plays under $8,000 that leave plenty of flexibility to find leverage to attack at other places on the board. They aren’t too chalky, but they are both too hot to be “deep sleepers” this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Trace Crowe $6,900
Crowe has the highest ceiling projection of all players under $7,000 this week. He also has the second-highest Perfect% of players in that price range with an ownership projection under 5%.
Part of the reason the public may be fading Crowe a bit is that he had to withdraw from the World Wide Technology Championship last week for undisclosed reasons. He’s still ready to go this week, though, it appears as he looks to continue his strong FedExCup Fall showing.
Despite withdrawing last week after Round 3, he still exceeded salary-based expectations. It was his sixth tournament exceeding salary-based expectations in his last seven, dating back to the 3M Open in July.
Crowe starts the week at No. 135 in the FedExCup standings, but with a couple of strong results can secure his spot on the PGA TOUR for next season. The 28-year-old from Auburn ranks in the top 10 of this field in Birdie or Better percentage and the top 25 in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds.
Ryan McCormick $6,600
McCormick’s results most of this season have been very unimpressive, but the 33-year-old is making a late push to move into the top 125. He did post a top-five finish at the Myrtle Beach Classic but missed the cut in eight of his 10 events after that.
Two tournaments ago, he seemed to find something after withdrawing from the Black Desert Championship. He finished T16 at the Shriners Children’s Open and followed that with a T24 at the World Wide Technology Championship.
McCormick has the highest SimLeverage of all players under $7,000 in our projections, and no player at his salary or lower has a higher Perfect%. If you’re looking for a flier play in this price range, our projections point to McCormick as the way to go.
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