NFL Week 5 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Tom Brady at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,800 as opposed to $11,200.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The highest-priced options in this contest are a pair of QBs and their top pass catchers.
Let’s start with Brady, who is coming off one of the best fantasy games of his storied career in his last outing. He finished with 369 yards and five touchdowns, resulting in 36.46 DraftKings points. The fact that he did that without Chris Godwin in the lineup is all the more impressive.
That said, he’ll face a stiff test this week vs. the Bears, who currently rank fifth in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The Bears have also been a dreadful fantasy matchup for quarterbacks to start the year, giving Brady an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.9.
Brady will once again have to play with a depleted set of pass catchers, and the group is even more thin than it was last week. Godwin remains out with a hamstring injury, and O.J. Howard and LeSean McCoy will join him on the sidelines vs. the Bears. Those may not sound like huge injuries, but those players combined for seven targets and four catches in their last game.
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The good news for Brady is that there is growing optimism that Mike Evans will be able to suit up. He is currently questionable with an ankle injury, but he is expected to warm up before the game. If all goes well, he should be good to go.
Evans was Brady’s clear top option with Godwin out of the lineup last week, finishing with eight targets, seven receptions, 122 yards, and touchdown. His matchup vs. the Bears is also difficult – Chicago currently ranks third in DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs – but Evans would still be appealing due to sheer volume.
On the Bears’ side, Nick Foles will draw his second straight start. Things didn’t go particularly well in his first outing, as he finished with just 12.86 DraftKings points vs. a tough Colts defense.
Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any easier for him today vs. the Bucs. They rank fourth in the league in DVOA against the pass, giving Foles an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.1. They boast one of the best pass rushes in football, headlined by Shaq Barrett. They currently rank third in adjusted sack rate, so they figure to keep Foles under duress for a large part of the evening. That could spell trouble for Foles, whose Pro Football Focus grade drops from 67.6 to 56.4 when under pressure. Things were even more stark for him last season in Jacksonville, dropping from 74.1 to 47.9.
Allen Robinson was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Bears’ QB change last week. He garnered 10 targets from Foles, and he turned those into seven catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. He also draws a tough matchup this week, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.5, but that is the best mark among the stud quartet.
Since none of these options really stand out from a matchup perspective, it could make sense to target the Bucs side simply due to the Vegas data. They’re currently favored by 5.5 points despite being on the road, giving them the clear edge in implied team total. Favorites have historically performed better in fantasy, particularly at the QB position (per the Trends tool).
Midrange
The biggest defensive weakness in this game according to the PFF data is the Bears’ defense against the run. That makes Ronald Jones a very appealing option considering their current injury situation. Not only is McCoy out of the lineup this week, but Leonard Fournette is expected to miss his second straight game.
Jones carried the majority of the RB workload for the Bucs last week, finishing with 20 carries and a whopping nine targets. Unsurprisingly, that led to a productive 21.8 DraftKings points vs. the Chargers. Jones currently leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NFL Models, and he owns the highest ceiling projection outside of the stud group. He’s definitely someone to be overweight on and a strong choice for the Captain spot.
The Bucs haven’t been nearly as poor against the run as the Bears this season, but David Montgomery still deserves some consideration. He operated as the Bears’ bell-cow back with Tarik Cohen out of the lineup last week, playing on 85% of their offensive snaps. He only finished with 10 carries, but he did make up for it by receiving six targets.
Montgomery has the potential for a large workload on the ground if you think that the Bears can keep this game competitive.
Scotty Miller is yet another Bucs’ pass catcher who is dealing with an injury, and he’s currently listed as questionable. That said, he is expected to suit up for this contest.
[Get Real-Time Week 5 Fantasy Rankings Until Kickoff]
Miller saw a nice spike in volume last week sans Godwin, finishing with seven targets, five catches, 83 yards, and a touchdown. He should see another increased workload if he’s active today, but he does draw a tough assignment vs. Kyle Fuller. That certainly isn’t a death blow, but Fuller does have a slight 1% edge in this matchup according to Pro Football Focus.
After Miller, the options in this price range get a little dicey. Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski used to be the clear top TEs in football, but both guys are on the downside of their careers. They will likely need to find the endzone in order to be fantasy-relevant in this contest, but that is obviously a possible outcome.
Anthony Miller is an interesting option if you want to go a bit contrarian. He should garner virtually no ownership following a three-catch, 16-yard performance in his last outing, but he still played on 69% of Chicago’s offensive snaps. That doesn’t sound like much, but he played on 42% or fewer of the Bears’ offensive snaps in each of the first two weeks. Being on the field more does give him a chance to return fantasy value.
Punts & Values
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format, and they could be more viable than usual this week. The total on this game sits at just 44.5 points, which is lower than usual for an NFL game in 2020.
- Darnell Mooney: $4,600 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Mooney is currently questionable with a shoulder injury, but expect him to be pretty chalky if he suits up. He’s been Chicago’s clear No. 2 WR in terms of snaps this season and finished with nine targets in their last game.
- Cameron Brate: $3,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Brate has the potential to step into a pretty big workload for the Bucs this week. He already played on 21% of their snaps in Week 4, and Howard was on the field for 37%. If Brate can absorb the majority of those opportunities, he definitely has a path to fantasy relevance.
- Cordarrelle Patterson: $2,200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Patterson is primarily used on special teams and gadget plays, but those players have the potential to be values on single-game slates. He finished second on the team in carries last week and also saw two targets in the passing game.
- Ke’Shawn Vaughn: $1,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Vaughn is another player in this price range who should carry ownership. He’ll likely operate as the backup to Jones and has some ability to contribute in the passing game, evidenced by his two catches for 22 yards and a TD last week.
Pictured above: Tom Brady #12, Ronald Jones #27 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Photo credit: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
