NFL Week 2 gets underway with the Cleveland Browns vs. the Cincinnati Bengals at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Joe Burrow at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,200 as opposed to $10,800.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
The stud options are a bit lacking in tonight’s contest. The most expensive player on DraftKings is actually Burrow, who was solid in his NFL debut. He didn’t throw for any touchdowns vs. the Chargers, but he did rush for 46 yards and a score.
His ability on the ground makes him particularly valuable from a fantasy perspective. Quarterbacks who average between 30 and 50 rushing yards per game have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). That’s just a baseline before factoring in anything additional, so that’s a pretty good starting point.
Burrow also has one of the best pure matchups on the slate vs. the Browns’ pass defense. They struggled vs. the pass in 2019, ranking just 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Lamar Jackson thoroughly dominated them through the air in Week 1. I’m obviously not comparing Burrow to Jackson, but Burrow’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9 on DraftKings is the second-best mark on the slate.
Baker Mayfield is the most expensive option on FanDuel, and he has the clear edge at the QB position from a Vegas perspective. The Browns are currently favored by six points, so their implied team total of 24.75 is significantly higher than the Bengals’ mark of 18.75.
Mayfield is also playing at home, which is something that has historically bode well for fantasy QBs. Add both factors together, and comparable home favorites have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.73.
After the QBs, Joe Mixon is really the only other player on this slate that can be considered a stud. That said, there is some concern with Mixon after Week 1. He was on the field for just 58.8% of the Bengals’ offensive snaps in that contest, which was significantly lower than expected. He also lost more work than expected to Giovani Bernard in the passing game, who out targeted him 5 to 2.
Still, it’s dangerous to jump to conclusions after just one week. He could definitely return to his usual workload today, especially after the Bengals decided to pay him during the offseason. He averaged over 25 touches per game over his final five games in 2019, and he averaged 22.42 DraftKings points in those contests.
Midrange
The decision between Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is one of the most important on today’s slate.
Chubb entered the year as the starter, while Hunt was expected to operate as the receiving back. That wasn’t exactly how things went down in Week 1. Hunt actually out-snapped Chubb in that contest, and he also got six additional touches.
So does this represent the changing of the guard in the Cleveland backfield? Absolutely not. The Browns were trailing by 18 points at halftime vs. the Ravens, so it’s not all that surprising that the receiving back ended up with more playing time. The receiving back will obviously get more opportunities when you fall that far behind.
Today’s game script should be much more favorable for Chubb. Running backs who are favored by between four and seven points have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.34 on DraftKings.
The more interesting question is can you possibly play Chubb and Hunt together? You wouldn’t think so, but these RBs have actually had a significant positive correlation at +0.50. Most fantasy players will likely choose between the two, so rostering both could actually be a contrarian strategy as well.
As far as the Browns’ pass catchers go, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry should be expected to handle the majority of the opportunities. OBJ led the Browns with 10 targets in Week 1, and Landry wasn’t too far behind him with six. No one outside of those two players and Hunt saw more than three targets vs. the Ravens.
Beckham is considered the big-play threat while Landry works the short area of the field, but Landry actually averaged more air yards per target than Beckham did in Week 1. With that in mind, Landry probably has a bit more upside than most people realize.
If you do want to load up on the Browns passing game, it seems like it’s best to limit your exposure to Hunt. Beckham has a correlation of -0.49 with Hunt, while Landry possess a mark of -0.08.
Luckily, this is a great opportunity to take advantage of our new rules in our NFL Models. You can actually set it up to reduce your exposure to Hunt whenever Beckham or Landry is being used in a lineup:
On the Bengals side, A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd stand out as the top pass catching option. Green stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%. He wasn’t on the field as much as some of the other Bengals Week 1 – he played on just 66.2% of the offensive snaps in that contest – but he was still heavily involved. He led the team with nine targets, and he also counted for 44.02% of the Bengals total air yards. That was the 10th-highest market share of air yards in the league during Week 1.
Boyd only saw five targets in that contest, and Green returning to the lineup could have a negative impact on his fantasy stock moving forward. He’s averaged more than three fewer targets and approximately 16 fewer receiving yards per game with Green in the lineup over the past three seasons.
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Values & Punts
- John Ross ($5,200 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Ross actually led the Bengals WRs in snaps last week. That didn’t lead to much fantasy success – he had just two catches for 17 yards – but the first step towards scoring points is actually getting on the field. Ross has elite speed at the WR position, so he’s always a threat to take one to the house.
- Kickers and Defenses: I’m not going to break down the four specific kicking and defense options in this contest, but they are always in play in the single-game format. Out of the group, the Browns defense stands out as the best play in our NFL Models. They have a projected Plus/Minus of +0.59 on DraftKings, which is the second-highest mark for players priced above $400.
- Giovani Bernard ($3,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Bernard figures to be one of the highest-owned players in this price range after playing more than expected in Week 1. He benefits from the same elite matchup as Mixon, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.3 on FanDuel, and no one in this price range can match his ceiling on DraftKings.
- Khadarel Hodge ($400 on DraftKings) and Michael Thomas ($200 on DraftKings): Neither of these guys make a ton of sense on FanDuel, but you can definitely consider them at their current price tags on DraftKings. Thomas was on the field for 22.1% of the Bengals snaps in Week 1, while Hodge saw the field for 54.8% of the Browns offensive snaps. Both guys should also be nice ways to diversify your lineups if you want to load up on the studs.
Pictured above: Cleveland Browns running backs Kareem Hunt #27, Nick Chubb #24
Photo credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images
