We are in for a doozy of a Sunday, with teams clamoring for the final few playoff spots. Among those are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who need a win against the division rival Cleveland Browns and a little help from some friends to snag the final AFC Wild Card berth. The Steelers can only take care of their own business, and we’re expecting a top-tier effort as they look to avoid their first losing season since 2003.
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As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Browns vs. Steelers Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Kareem Hunt Any Time Touchdown Scorer +450
It’s been nine weeks since Browns running back Kareem Hunt last found the endzone, a trend we expect him to buck in the final week of the regular season.
Hunt is coming off one of his worst performances of the season. The former Pro Bowler played just 18 snaps, his second-lowest total of the season, accumulating -1 yards on two carries and a catch. That’s far enough off from season norms that we’re expecting a bounce-back performance from Hunt against the Steelers.
Even in a diminished capacity next to Nick Chubb, Hunt is getting regular touches out of the Browns’ backfield. Hunt is averaging 7.4 carries and 2.0 receptions per game for 40.6 yards. Further, he gets 1.88 red zone touches per game and has an 8.3% touchdown percentage. With solid underlying metrics such as those, Hunt should have more luck finding paydirt, which is contraindicated in his metrics over the last nine weeks.
According to The ScoreAndOdds projections, Hunt has a 24% chance of scoring a touchdown on Sunday. That’s in excess of the 18.1% implied probability with the +450 price tag. Hunt isn’t as bad as we saw last week and is a natural progression candidate on Sunday. We’re betting he cashes as an any time touchdown scorer.
Jaylen Warren Under 28.5 Rushing Yards
We’ve seen bigger and better things from Najee Harris over the past few weeks, and that could result in fewer touches for Jayle Warren as the Steelers try to salvage their playoff hopes against the Browns.
After a slow start to the season, Harris has been a revelation of late. The Alabama Crimson Tide product has more than 20 carries in two of his past three, rushing for 250 yards across the three-game sample. That’s the kind of production the Steelers were hoping to get from their star rusher when they drafted him in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
There are only so many carries to go around, and, despite his strong play, Warren plays second fiddle to Harris. Warren has rushed for more than 38 yards just twice this season, averaging 22.9 yards per contest. Although he’s seen a slight uptick in touches over the past few games, his snap count usually falls below 35.0%, limiting his offensive upside.
This will be a possession-driven AFC North battle, and Harris will get the lion’s share of carries, preventing Warren from eclipsing his total. That aligns with our projections, showing a substantive advantage in betting under 28.5 rushing yards on Warren’s rushing prop.
Donovan Peoples-Jones Under 38.5 Receiving Yards
The hazard with any wide receiver is their play is contingent on the quarterback throwing them the ball. In Donovan Peoples-Jones’ case, his fantasy ceiling has decreased with Deshaun Watson under center.
Watson has an obvious preference for Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Since Watson took over, Cooper has led the team in targets in all but one of five contests, representing a 25.4% target share. Njoku has also seen an increase in passes, with his target share increasing to 19.2% over the past four weeks. Conversely, Watson is throwing Peoples-Jones’ way just 19.0% of the time.
Fewer looks have yielded worse metrics, with Peoples-Jones failing to surpass 44 yards in four of five contests. Sadly, those stats have looked worse lately. Peoples-Jones has fallen below 31 yards in three straight, with a forgettable average of 15.3 yards per game.
Peoples-Jones has been a secondary option in the Browns’ passing game, with Watson calling the shots. Consequently, the Browns’ wideout will likely stay under his 38.5 receiving-yard prop against the Steelers. That’s reflected in our algorithm, with a 60.0% chance that Peoples-Jones falls below the modest total.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on Scores And Odds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
FanDuel Sportsbook is offering an attractive +1542 price tag on this three-leg wager on their SameGame Parlay. That’s above TheScoreAndOdds projections of +900, leaving bettors with a sizeable edge in this crucial AFC matchup.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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