Here’s a breakdown of the Thursday Night Football one-game DFS slate featuring the Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals at 8:20 p.m. ET on FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime.
Denver Broncos
Good Matchups & Values
The Cardinals have been gashed by running backs this season, even waking up a dormant Vikings run game by giving up a 24-155-1 line to Latavius Murray last week. Through six weeks, Arizona has allowed 138.7 rushing yards and 57.0 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. According to our NFL Trends tool, the Cards have faced eight running backs projected for at least 8 DraftKings points and have allowed a +6.9 Plus/Minus and 87.5% Consistency Rating.
Denver’s two backs who match that trend are Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay. Freeman has played 35% of snaps so far and Lindsay has played 34%, while Devontae Booker checks in at 32%. Freeman (13.2) and Lindsay (12.5) are neck-and-neck in touches per game, with Booker trailing at 6.4. Freeman has handled two carries inside the 5-yard line while Lindsay and Booker haven’t handled any.
Lindsay’s increased efficiency and receiving usage makes him the best all-around play of the three.
Emmanuel Sanders is a bit overpriced but is still the best bet of Denver’s receivers because he gets to avoid Patrick Peterson in the slot. Sanders has caught five passes in all but one game and went for 96 yards in the one he didn’t.
Tight end Jeff Heuerman is a sneaky play on the basis of his team-leading five targets inside the 10-yard line and 81% snap rate over the past three weeks.
Arizona Cardinals
Good Matchups & Values
David Johnson has played 93% of snaps over the past three weeks and has the highest-projected ceiling on the slate by more than five points. He’s in a get-right spot against a Denver defense that has allowed a 200-yard game to a running back in each of the past two weeks and an average of 225.7 rushing yards to running backs over the past three weeks.
Depending on how you look at it, there’s either a lot of value or no value in the Arizona receiving corps:
- From a production standpoint, Christian Kirk is the best value. Kirk has gone for 77 or more yards in three of his last four games and is more likely than Larry Fitzgerald to avoid stud Broncos corner Chris Harris Jr. since Fitz plays more slot snaps than Kirk.
- From an air-yard perspective, Ricky Seals-Jones is the best value. RSJ has commanded a team-leading 32% air-yard share over the past three weeks.
- From a projection vs. salary standpoint, Chad Williams is the best value, clocking in with the top-projected Plus/Minus on the slate.
- From a dart-throw perspective, J.J. Nelson is the top value after seeing 41 air yards on two targets last week and shedding his lingering injury designation ahead of Thursday’s game.
Ultimately, I’d feel most confident in Kirk and RSJ since Fitzgerald (215 yards on 33 targets) and Williams (58 yards on 21 targets) have been in perpetual struggle mode, and Nelson has played 50% of the snaps just once.
Roster Construction Notes
- The fantasy points of Arizona’s QB and RB1 have had a strong positive correlation of .63 this season.
- The fantasy points of Arizona’s RB1 and D/ST also have been strongly correlated at .55.
- Unlike most teams, Arizona’s QB and the opposing QB haven’t seen positively-correlated fantasy points. In fact, the -.85 correlation is one of the stronger negative correlations you’ll find among any team at any position. This could be just noise, but it’s another reason not to play too much of these disgusting quarterback options on this disgusting slate.
- The fantasy points of Denver’s RB1 and RB2 have had a weak but positive correlation (.22). See last sentence on above bullet point.
Cash Game Strategy
Whereas the usual aim in cash games on these one-game slates is to secure as much exposure to the scoring as possible via quarterbacks, running backs and sometimes kickers, going out of your way to lock in Case Keenum or Josh Rosen seems counterproductive given their to-date production.
Instead, the safest thing to do on this slate is to lock in the running backs likely to account for most of the volume — DJ, Lindsay and Freeman — and to maximize value around them, i.e. with DJ in the Captain/MVP slot. He’d be a risky fade in that spot in cash given his floor/ceiling combo.
On DraftKings, that means getting passing-game exposure with Sanders, Kirk and Williams instead of the quarterbacks.
On FanDuel, you can get Sanders alongside DJ, Lindsay and Freeman if you punt the fifth spot with Heuerman.
Tournament Strategy
I think you still want to go RB-heavy in tournaments, mixing it up by using the Denver backs in the Captain/MVP slot and going with different combos of the core pass-catchers in good spots (Sanders, Kirk and Seals-Jones).
This is the rare one-game slate in which the quarterbacks don’t necessarily jump off the page as must-plays in guaranteed prize pools, but given that DJ is likely to be the highest-owned player on the slate, stacking him with Rosen could be a way to differentiate from a chunk of lineups if Johnson scores a receiving touchdown.
And given that DJ is the highest-ceiling play on the slate, another strategy is to build lineups around him that play off the opposite of the expected outcome (a close game):
- Cardinals dominate: DJ paired with Arizona D/ST, Rosen, at least one other pass-catcher and/or Phil Dawson (and potentially passing-down back Booker for Denver).
- Broncos dominate: DJ naked or with one other Cards pass-catcher, some combination of Lindsay/Freeman/Sanders and/or Denver D/ST and Brandon McManus.
Heuerman is the top leverage play on the Broncos because he’s been seeing significant red-zone usage but will likely be the lowest-owned Bronco to see a full compliment of snaps.
Ditto for Nelson and Williams on the Cardinals. Williams has played more snaps, but with him struggling to consistently produce and Nelson getting healthier, my gut tells me that Arizona will attempt a few shots to Nelson, who is the most likely player in this game (outside of Sanders) to score a slate-changing 75-yard touchdown.
Let’s get this shmoney!
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Chris Raybon is a Senior Editor at the Action Network and a co-host of “I’ll Take That Bet” on ESPN+. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Pictured above: Emmanuel Sanders
Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
