The final major is upon us for the 2022 golf season, and it comes with a ton of prestige. The 150th Open Championship will be held on The Old Course at St. Andrews and will feature the return of Tiger Woods. Everything is lining up for an epic week across the pond, and DraftKings is rolling out a $25 Millionaire Maker contest with a $3,000,000 prize pool. This article will be focused on the key plays for that contest.
Links-style golf is different from what we see traditionally, and many DFSers have trouble adjusting. One key this week is thinking about each player’s style, and those with links experience may benefit from their knowledge of playing these tracks. I’ll dig in on several International players that could be an excellent fit for GPPs this week, and they will all typically come in lower owned than their American counterparts.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our PGA Models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Now, let’s get into the plays for the week.
Top Tier
Collin Morikawa $10,300
There is no question that this isn’t quite the same Morikawa we saw last year, but don’t forget that he was a bad Saturday round from being right there for the win last month at the U.S. Open. He’s +2500 at Caesars Sportsbook to win and +3300 at BetMGM.
I was hoping to see better from him last week at the Scottish Open, and the missed cut certainly doesn’t help, but it will squash his ownership. I expect to see him in the mid-single digits of ownership this week, and Morikawa can win any tournament when he shows up with his A-game. He was able to figure things out in this same major last year after another struggle at the Scottish and took home the Claret Jug from Royal St. George’s. I won’t go to him in most small field contests, but if I am looking to get unique up top in a Millionaire Maker type of GPP, he is a great starting point.
Jordan Spieth $10,000
Spieth is hands down my favorite play across the board. I am considering giving Spieth a hefty amount of ownership in my builds this week and playing him steadily across all contest types. Spieth has shown to be a master on links, and even in his down years, he was producing top finishes. He showed up again as he was within a couple of shots of the lead on the back nine at the Scottish Open last week, but he never could get the putter to cooperate. I am hopeful that his fall-off may lead some to be a little more cautious with him, but either way, he is my favorite core play at the top of the board for DFS and makes a great place to start more balanced builds.
Mid-Tier
Louis Oosthuizen $8,800
The forgotten man this week — and rightfully so based on recent performance — will be Oosthuizen. His move to the LIV Tour has made him even more overlooked despite an excellent track record at Open Championships. That record includes a playoff loss to Zach Johnson on this very course in 2015 and his only major title in 2010. He’s going to be in the mid-single digits for ownership and makes for a great pivot away from Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood below as he looks to recapture the magic he has found at the Old Course in the past.
Tyrrell Hatton $8,700
Speaking of Hatton, he will be my pick in this range when choosing between him and Fleetwood. I expect the ownership numbers to eventually favor the more popular and less expensive Fleetwood than the projections suggest, which is enough for me to bump up Hatton. They have nearly identical amounts of success in scoring at the Old Course, and Hatton has a win and runner-up finish in the Alfred Dunhill DP World Tour event. He is also finding some form even as he faded a bit over the weekend at the Scottish Open, and I think we may see him at the top of his game this week.
Value Plays
Justin Rose $7,400
I love Max Homa, but his volatility makes it a little crazy to dive in at over 25% projected ownership. I may make my biggest stand by fading him in large-field GPPs and looking elsewhere in the value range. Rose catches my eye from that perspective, as he is starting to show some form of late and is another experienced links player. The Englishman has made the last six cuts at this event, including two top 6s and two more top 25s. I think he could be close to another top finish, and I don’t mind the volatility we saw last week, as that can be a sign that he has it coming together. He’ll be a favorite play of mine in this range and can likely stay lower than the teens in ownership for large contests.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $7,300
As I was running through the numbers this week on performances at the Old Course in both Opens and the Alfred Dunhill, one thing that stuck out was the success of South African players. It may not mean much with how different the course will play this week, but it certainly helps to see guys like Bezuidenhout show some comfort at this course.
Bez is a bit in the same player mold, though at a lower level, as Spieth. He is a fantastic putter who just needs his ball striking to show up to have a chance to compete. I think he mitigates his weakness off the tee this week with the conditions at St. Andrews, and if he can dial in the irons, he’ll have a chance on these huge greens with his great putting ability.
Sleepers
Dylan Frittelli $6,800
I was impressed last week by the play of Frittelli after a solid opening round at the Scottish Open. Digging deeper, I was reminded that he was a bit of a surprise top 5 finish at last year’s Open Championship, and that is enough to have me buying this week. He didn’t put together much over the final three rounds at The Renaissance Club, but at this price, we can take a chance that he finds that links magic again this year and can put together a week that could make for a winning lineup.
Dean Burmester $6,700
I told you I like the South Africans this week, and now we are up to four in this article. Burmester is another favorite value of mine after he posted a T10 last week at the Scottish. He also seems to have figured out how to play the Old Course after a couple of tough opening rounds earlier in his career, with three of his last four posted in the 60s. I’ll look for him to lean on that course experience this week, along with the good form he is carrying, to be another key play in the bottom tier for large-field GPPs.
