Week 17: The WOATest
Week 17 is depressing for a myriad of reasons. It signals not only the approaching end of daily fantasy football but also the end for many NFL teams. Additionally, some of the best players in the league don’t even suit up. For instance, this year in Week 17 we’re likely to see Fitzgerld Toussaint (the Steelers third-string running back) get double-digit touches against the Browns while a healthy Le’Veon Bell relaxes on the sideline.
Staying on top of projected playing time and team motivations will be a key to DFS success this week. But what else can we do to find an edge?
Testing Target Practice for Week 17
Using our Trends tool, I’ve lately been running something I call “target practice.” Essentially I identify defenses that have struggled against particular positions over the last five games, and then I target those defenses when building rosters. I’ve found this practice to be profitable, and the simplicity of it makes me feel like a genius.
I imagine that targeting these challenged defenses could be even more valuable in Week 17, as many players under consideration have likely been on the DFS bench for long stretches (if not all) of the season. Additionally, it’s unlikely that a defensive unit that has struggled for five games at the end of the season is going to improve for the final game of the regular season.
I’ve run trends — lots of them — to determine which defenses were playing the worst against each position in games 11-15 in both the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Here are the results for quarterbacks in 2015:
Next, I isolated those teams results in game 16 to see how their competition fared. Let’s have a look.
Josh Who Did What?
Since 2014, 10 teams have allowed opposing QBs to average at least 19 DK PPG during Games 11-15. The 2015 Titans have no results against them in the database — presumably because they faced a combination of Colts QBs Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley (I told you sh*t gets weird in Week 17) — so they have been removed from the sample, and we’re left with the results from nine teams.
Overall, 67 percent of the QBs facing these target practice defenses scored at least 18.96 DK points. Five of the nine QBs scored at least 22.08 DK points and finished with top-eight QB performances during Week 17.
In 2015 alone, the five QBs facing these target practice defenses combined to average 21.18 DK points and a chunky +6.02 Plus/Minus with 80 percent Consistency. Notably, New Orleans and Chicago — who had both allowed 80 percent of QBs to meet or exceed salary-based expectations in the previous five games — gave up the two biggest scores in Week 17.
The overwhelming majority of the top QBs in Week 17 the past two seasons have been names you would expect — but Geno Smith was the top scorer in 2014 and Kellen Moore finished with the second-highest point total last season. In case you were wondering (and why wouldn’t you be?), Matt Ryan scored 23.36 DK points at home against the Saints in 2015.
Remember Rashad
Since 2014, 25 different teams have allowed opposing RB with projected ceilings of 12.5-plus DK points to average at least 15 DK PPG during Games 11-15. In total, 28 such RBs have faced these target practice defenses in Week 17. Among those RBs, 57 percent (16 of 28) scored more than 12.5 DK points in Week 17.
In 2015, five of the 12 qualifying RBs (41.6 percent) facing these defenses finished the week with top-10 DK scores. In 2014, four of 16 (25 percent) finished with a top-10 DK scores.
Impressively, in 2014 and 2015 the best RB performances of Week 17 came from RBs facing one of these vulnerable defenses: C.J. Anderson against the Raiders in 2014 and Rashad Jennings against the Eagles last season.
Something to keep in mind: The top-five RBs on DK in Week 17 last season were Jennings, Ronnie Hillman, DuJuan Harris, Tim Hightower, and Jonathan Grimes. Three of those five players finished the 2015 season with no more than 375 rushing yards. None of them rushed for more than 863 yards. Three of the five played teams from the target practice sample.
Exactly.
Toe The Line
Since 2014, 14 defenses have allowed opposing wide receivers with projected ceilings of 15-plus DK points to average at least 17.5 DK PPG during Games 11-15. In total, 18 WRs with projected ceilings of at least 15 DK points then faced these defenses in Week 17. Among those WRs, just 38 percent (seven of 18) scored at least 15 DK points.
In 2015, two of the 11 qualifying WRs had top-five performances in Week 17. In 2014, just one of the seven WRs had a top-10 score.
Top WR performers for Week 17 over the past two seasons have been quite chalky. Antonio Brown (twice), Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Odell Beckham have all finished at or near the top of the WR leaderboard in the regular season’s final week.
A Tale of Two Seasons
Since 2014, 15 teams have qualified as target practice defenses by allowing an average of at least 14.5 DK points to tight ends with projected ceilings of 12.5-plus DK points. In total, eight TEs with projected ceilings of at least 12.5 DK points then faced a target practice defense in Week 17. Among those TEs, three of eight scored 12 points or more — but it was really a tale of two seasons.
In 2015, three of four qualifying target practice TEs scored at least 17 DK points and finished the week as top-eight TEs. Target practice TE Zach Ertz finished the week as the top scorer. But in 2014 none of the four qualifying TEs scored more than 12 DK points or had a top-10 finish during Week 17.
The most surprising Week 17 finding for TEs? Coby Fleener was a top-three Week 17 TE in both 2104 and 2015.
My Only Friend, The End
Target practice has had some mixed results. QBs have exceeded salary-based expectations consistently. More than 50 percent of them have delivered top-10 scores in Week 17. Target practice RBs have been less consistent, but nearly one out of three has finished as a top-1o RB. They have also provided the highest Week 17 score for the last two seasons. Target practice WRs haven’t generated enticing results, and TEs were great last season but terrible in 2014.
This truly is the end (of the regular season and this piece).
