Leadoff hitters are often undervalued when most people construct their lineups. If you have read our previous articles, I am sure that you know the importance of leadoff hitters. For a quick refresher, here is a graph that shows Plus/Minus, on average, for each spot in the lineup.
Generally, leadoff hitters want to have a high on-base percentage (OBP). This translates to DFS because our goal is to select players who have the best chance of reaching base. Since leadoff hitters are typically above-average OBP players, along with having maximum plate appearances, they are a primary source of potential points. Unfortunately, we aren’t exactly in the golden age for leadoff hitters. Rickey Henderson isn’t going to magically appear in a slate this season. However, there are still plenty of leadoff hitters who offer exceptional value. Let’s break them down by Plus/Minus, Consistency, and Upside.
Matt Kemp is currently at the top, but his sample size is very small. After a slump that has lasted nearly all season, the Padres have just recently inserted him into the leadoff spot. The next two names are surprising: Rajai Davis and Billy Burns. Their ownership percentages do not reflect their Plus/Minus when hitting leadoff. Brett Gardner, Jason Kipnis, Gerardo Parra, Brian Dozier, and Manny Machado are the next five leadoff hitters on the list. Even with their high price tags, they are still exceeding their expected points. Gerardo Parra is only $3,600 on DraftKings and offers a great value when hitting leadoff.
Let’s take a look at consistency to see which leadoff hitters consistently match or exceed their expected value.
Again, Kemp is at the top, albeit with a small sample size. Rajai Davis has a remarkable 73% consistency rate when hitting leadoff. We can see that he is much better vs. lefties than righties, so we can assume he hits leadoff more vs. lefties.
All of his games are in fact at leadoff when he is facing a lefty. However, he still hits righties exceptionally well when hitting leadoff.
Basically, when playing cash games, rostering Rajai Davis when he hits leadoff is almost a lock. Other names towards the top of consistency include Gerardo Parra, Billy Burns, Brandon Guyer, and Jason Kipnis. While the consistency chart will help with cash games, let’s check out the upside chart for a look at tournament values.
Brett Gardner has a 34% upside rating — this makes him a fantastic tournament player when considering leadoff hitters. Of course, the top of this list isn’t complete without Rajai Davis. Looks like he is in play in any format when hitting leadoff. Some notable details on the chart include Brian Dozier with a 28% upside rating and only 50% consistency rating. This makes him more of a tourney player. Same can be said for Gregory Polanco, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock. On the other side, Delino DeShields has an above-average 52% consistency rating with only a 9% upside rating. Other examples of leadoff hitters who are generally not great tournament options, but have a high consistency rating, are Jean Segura, Adam Eaton, Denard Span, and Dee Gordon.
Finding value each night can be simplified by looking at leadoff hitters. This process can be broken down more by knowing which leadoff hitters are most valuable depending on your game type (cash or GPP). Even though Rickey Henderson isn’t coming back, there are some leadoff hitters who are performing quite well overall. Matt Kemp, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, and Brian Dozier all average just over 10 points per game. To compare them with The Man of Steal, however, is foolish — in 1985, Rickey averaged a massive 12.48 points per game, stealing not only every base, but also the hearts of future DFS players who were robbed of cashing in on his greatness.
