These days, it can be difficult to find an edge in fantasy football. With all of the tools, content, and projection models available, fantasy players have more information at their disposal than ever.
But you can still find angles if you know where to look, especially in best ball, which is still a fairly new fantasy football format that was introduced to the industry a few years ago, notably by Underdog Fantasy. We’re in the throes of the NFL offseason now, but rumors have a way of affecting ADP for better or worse. Knowing how to differentiate news from rumors is one way you can get an edge on the field.
Editor’s note: Use the Underog promo code LABS to get a deposit bonus up to $250 for your best ball fantasy football drafts.
Will Aiyuk Stay in San Francisco?
In an appearance on Jayden Daniels’ podcast last week, Brandon Aiyuk vented that he believes the 49ers don’t want him back. His exact quote was, “They said they don’t want me back.” These kinds of things should be taken with a sizable grain of salt, but there could be fire causing this smoke.
Aiyuk is about to enter the final year of his rookie deal, and he’ll count about $14 million against the Niners’ cap next season. ESPN reported that extension talks between the parties have “stalled a bit,” and Aiyuk is expected to be fined a considerable amount for skipping the team’s mandatory mini-camp earlier this month.
Four other star receivers have put pen to paper on lucrative extensions this offseason (Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and Amon-Ra St. Brown). The 49ers extended Deebo Samuel back in 2022, while Jauan Jennings got a new contract of his own just last month. Christian McCaffrey inked a 2-year extension of his own about a week after Jennings did. San Francisco also spent a first-round pick on another receiver – Ricky Pearsall – back in April.
With George Kittle also in the mix, the 49ers have no shortage of funds invested in their offense. It’s easier to do so with their quarterback, Brock Purdy, who is making pennies on the dollar, but it’s just a matter of time until Purdy will be due for a sizable raise of his own. We live in the world of a salary cap, so it’s fair to wonder whether Aiyuk will wind up as the odd man out here.
Aiyuk’s Best Ball ADP Holding Steady
As of now, best ball drafters don’t seem too spooked by the rumors. Aiyuk’s best ball ADP ahead of the ‘24 campaign is still 14th among receivers and 21st overall. Aiyuk finished last season as the WR10 in PPR scoring after hauling in 75 passes for a career-best 1,342 yards and 7 touchdowns. Aiyuk has now posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, which isn’t too shabby for a guy who may not even be one of the two best playmakers on his own team when everybody is healthy.
Aiyuk’s ADP is slightly better than that of his oft-injured teammate, Samuel. Last season’s numbers do make Aiyuk look like the more valuable commodity, but are drafters accounting for the potential for a trade? In theory, Aiyuk could play an even bigger role elsewhere than he would in the 49ers’ stacked offense.
If John Lynch does balk at Aiyuk’s contract demands and opts instead for a trade, where might he land? The line of suitors will likely form to the left for the 26-year-old with a pair of 1,000-yard seasons already on his résumé.
Brandon Aiyuk Landing Spots?
Washington Commanders
The Commanders make sense as a potential destination for Aiyuk even when you don’t consider that his comments came on Daniels’ podcast. This team has invested draft resources in a few receivers in recent years, though Terry McLaurin is still the only player on the roster at the position you’d say is a proven commodity at the NFL level.
If he were to land with the Commanders, Aiyuk would presumably supplant McLaurin as the top pass-catcher in this offense immediately. Just what that means for Aiyuk’s potential fantasy value is somewhat murky, however. In addition to a rookie QB, the Commanders will have an entirely new coaching staff entering 2024. Another newcomer — Austin Ekeler — also figures to play a significant role in this offense.
If Aiyuk were already on the Commanders, would he be coming off the draft board within the first 20 overall picks? While this offense has already gotten a sorely needed infusion of talent this offseason, there are still quite a few question marks.
Update: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that there have in fact been trade discussions between the two teams, but the Commanders have opted against doing a deal.
Arizona Cardinals
For the purposes of this article, let’s pretend the Niners won’t have any reluctance about trading Aiyuk to another team within their own division. The Cardinals are a logical suitor for a player of Aiyuk’s talents, Newcomer Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to slide into a major role, but depth at receiver is otherwise a concern. Arizona is optimistic about incoming second-year wideout Michael Wilson, while Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, and Chris Moore will otherwise be battling for reps in camp.
Kyler Murray isn’t going anywhere now that he’s locked down long-term. Harrison, Trey McBride, and Trey Benson are high-upside youngsters at the skill positions, but a veteran presence like Aiyuk would bring some needed stability.
Best ballers already have high hopes for Harrison as a rookie. He’s coming off the board with a rather eye-popping ADP of 13th overall, while he’s 9th among receivers. Needless to say, a potential Aiyuk addition would likely send the ADP of both players tumbling.
Los Angeles Chargers
Speaking of question marks, the entire Chargers’ offense looks like one heading into next season. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett are all gone. Justin Herbert is still here, of course, and the Bolts’ brass has surrounded their franchise QB with a slew of new faces, including Jim Harbaugh.
Harbaugh played a run-first style at Michigan, so we can expect a similarly hard-nosed approach now that he’s back in the pro ranks. Offensive talent here could be a problem, though. The Chargers appear intent on recreating the Ravens’ backfield of old with the additions of JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, while Ladd McConkey headlines a fairly underwhelming group of incoming pass-catchers.
Aiyuk would immediately become the most talented skill position player on the roster if he were to make his way to LA, and his fantasy prospects would likely improve with Herbert under center. Aiyuk is more of an explosive playmaker than Allen was, but we saw just how consistently productive Allen was during his days in powder blue. Aiyuk’s ceiling as the Chargers’ WR1 would be considerably higher than it is right now in his role sharing the wealth with a host of other All-Stars in San Francisco.
Best Ball Takeaway
Whether Aiyuk finds a new home before the beginning of next season is still very much up in the air. He’s likely being hyperbolic when he says the Niners “don’t want” him, but it’s easy to understand his frustration. He wants to be paid what he’s worth. Who doesn’t?
The grass isn’t always greener on the other side from a fantasy standpoint, though. Would Aiyuk be more valuable as the WR1 in, say, Washington than he is now among the gaggle of playmakers for a more high-octane Niners attack? Food for thought, for sure.
With this kind of uncertain situation, I’d be much more willing to let others chase Aiyuk at a high ADP. If others start to get spooked and Aiyuk slides down draft boards as a result, that’s the time to strike.
