The PGA TOUR FedExCup Playoffs continue this week as the spotlight shifts to the mountains of Colorado for this week’s BMW Championship. The top 50 players in the FedExCup Standings have made it to this week’s event at Castle Pines Golf Club and also secured eligibility into all the Signature Events next season.
With only the top 50 making up the field for this limited-field, no-cut event, the field is focused and stacked with just one more playoff event remaining next week for the top 30. Last week’s winner, Hideki Matsuyama, will look to make it back-to-back wins in the playoffs after last week’s win moved him to No. 3 in the standings behind Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele. Scheffler’s dominant season gives him a substantial lead in the standings, and only Schauffele can catch him headed into next week’s TOUR Championship, where starting strokes will be awarded based on standings from the season and, ultimately, one player will win this year’s FedExCup Trophy and $25 million for first place.
Last year, Viktor Hovland claimed the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields and built on that win to pass Scheffler the following week at the TOUR Championship. He’ll look to follow the same script this year, and his game is in a good place, as he showed with his tie for second last week in Memphis.
While the names are familiar from this past season, the course will be much more of a question mark this week. This course hasn’t hosted the PGA TOUR since 2006, when it hosted The INTERNATIONAL. The course will set a new record as the longest course in the history of the PGA TOUR at over 8,100 yards, but with the elevation factored in, it actually won’t play nearly that long. The elevation on the course fluctuates in an excellent display of mountain-style golf as the course winds through the scenic foothills of the Rocky Mountains. The course features 400 feet of elevation change from start to finish, and most of the holes are lined with picturesque Ponderosa pines and oak trees.
This par-72 layout was designed by Jack Nicklaus and has many similarities to his other designs on the PGA TOUR including Muirfield Village Golf Club, where many of these pros have extended history. The grass is a blended Bent-Poa mix from fairway to green with thick four-inch Kentucky Bluegrass for the rough. The course is also defended by water hazards in play on 10 holes.
Without specific course history, I’ll lean a little more into recent form and course history on similar courses while also focusing on Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Strokes Gained: Approach and Total Driving.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Collin Morikawa $10,100
Especially with 50 players in the field, this week’s salary structure is top-heavy, with seven players with salaries of at least $10,000. Scheffler and Schauffele are extremely expensive, but Morikawa brings good leverage whether you pair him with one of those pay-up plays or build with balance around him.
In the entire field, Morikawa has the second-highest Perfect% behind only Xander and the third-highest ceiling projection behind only Xander and Scottie. Of the expensive group at $10,000 or more, he has the best Projected Plus/Minus and the second-highest SimLeverage. Despite those high marks, he only has the 13th-highest ownership projection in the field, which is why he brings good leverage.
He has a good track record on Nicklaus designs, with a win at Muirfield Village Golf Club in 2020 and two runner-up finishes there as well, including this year. He also won the PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park, which also has some strong parallels to this track (although with a different designer).
Over the last 30 rounds, Morikawa ranks in the top five in the field in Total Strokes Gained and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. His putting has actually been relatively strong in most of his recent rounds, and he could contend if that trend continues and his consistent iron game stays locked in. Morikawa’s balanced game plays well everywhere and should fit the course nicely.
Tony Finau $9,700
Like Morikawa, Finau brings a well-rounded game, good form, and the ability to contend when at his best. Also, like Morikawa, he hasn’t won this season and comes in a little under the radar. He has the second-highest SimLeverage and the second-highest Leverage rating in the entire field this week since his ownership projection is well under 7%.
Finau won in the FedExCup Playoffs before and has been hot lately, with the exception of one dismal round at The Open Championship. Aside from that week at Royal Troon, Finau made the cut in every tournament since March with eight top 20s, including a T12 at the 3M Open and T16 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. In a field with this salary, he’ll need to do better than a top 20 this week to be a good option, but with such low ownership, he has the potential to bring awesome leverage if he delivers.
Over his last 30 rounds, Finau ranks second in the field behind only Scheffler in Strokes Gained: Approach and third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, behind only Scheffler and Schauffele.
Finau also has a distinct advantage this week–his experience at altitude. He was born in Salt Lake City, Utah, where he started his career, and now is based in Scottsdale, Arizona, which also plays at altitude. He has a great history on comp courses designed by Nicklaus and also has a strong record at Augusta National, which was one of Nicklaus’s key inspirations for this course. Given the upside he brings based on potential course fit, getting him at this low ownership is worth paying a little extra for.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Akshay Bhatia $8,400
Ten players have salaries in the $8,000s this week, but none has a higher Perfect% than Bhatia, who has an ownership projection of just under 15%, which is only the fifth-highest in this price range.
The 22-year-old lefty starts the week sitting at No. 13 in the FedExCup Standings and should advance to next week’s TOUR Championship. He picked up his second career PGA TOUR win this season at the Valero Texas Open, and he added two other top 10s and 11 other top 25s to make the playoffs for the first time in his career.
Before winning this year’s Valero, he claimed his first career win in Tahoe at the Barracuda Championship, where elevation is also a key factor.
He looked sharp and ready to contend with the big boys last week with four rounds under 70 on his way to a T12 in his first tournament in the FedExCup Playoffs last week. He can be very boom-or-bust, but he has a very high ceiling. His ball striking and accuracy give him the ability to go low in a hurry, and his high ceiling makes him a solid contrarian play in this price bracket.
Jason Day $8,200
Day and Adam Scott are the only players in this week’s field who played this course during its run as host of The INTERNATIONAL. Since he last played here in 2006, Day has had an impressive career, including 13 PGA TOUR wins. He seemed to be on the back nine of his career until last year when he re-emerged with a strong run that included a victory at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a runner-up finish at The Open.
This year hasn’t been quite as successful for J-Day, but he has posted eight top 25s in 19 events and moved up to 25th in the FedExCup Standings after his T22 last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. That finish was his fourth straight top 25, including a T9 at the Olympics and a T13 at Royal Troon.
Over his last 16 rounds, the veteran Aussie ranks in the top 10 in Total Strokes Gained and top 13 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He looked especially back in form with a 65 on Saturday, showing the kind of game that could help him post another strong showing this week to lock down a spot in The TOUR Championship.
Of the players in the $8,000s, Day has the third-highest SimLeverage and fourth-lowest ownership projection at just over 12%.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Denny McCarthy $7,400
McCarthy has the second-best SimLeverage of the 11 players priced between $7,000 and $8,000, and his ownership projection is the lowest of any player in this price bracket. He comes into this week squarely on the bubble, starting the week at No. 30. If he holds that spot or moves up, the 31-year-old will advance to the TOUR Championship for the first time in his career after finishing 33rd and 37th the last two seasons.
This season, McCarthy had seven top 25s and four top 10s, with his closest call coming at the Valero, where he lost to Bhatia in a playoff. He outperformed salary-based expectations in four of his last six events, including last week, when he was the only non-winner on the PGA TOUR to finish in the top 10 at the St. Jude Championship. He actually was tied with Hideki Matsuyama to lead the tournament after his impressive 63 in the second round.
McCarthy’s short game and work on the greens has been excellent all season, but he often struggles off the tee. If the course elevation hides that weakness, he could be in store for another strong finish and his first ever season finale. If he posts another strong showing, he’ll bring great leverage at this ownership.
Let’s just hope his torn labrum isn’t an issue.
Taylor Pendrith $7,300
Pendrith matches more Pro Trends than any other player in the $7,000s and comes into this week on a nice run of form. His ownership projection is over 12%, but he’s a little safer option than McCarthy since his game is a little more well-rounded.
Earlier this season, Pendrith broke through for his first PGA TOUR win at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. Since then, he continued to post good results with a missed cut at the PGA Championship and a low finish after making the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, his only two letdowns. He has 10 top-25 finishes in his last 13 starts.
He finished in the top five in another event at elevation at the Barracuda Championship in July and followed that with another top five at the 3M Open before taking a couple weeks break before the playoffs. Last week in Memphis, Pendrith returned to action with a 65 but slumped in the middle rounds before finishing strong enough for a T22, which has him starting this week in the No. 27 spot in the FedExCup Standings.
Pendrith ranks 15th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Approach over his last 12 rounds. His approach game is strong enough for him to post a high finish and get to East Lake if his putter cooperates.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Eric Cole $6,500
I’ve been backing Cole as a bargain the last few weeks as the defending Rookie of the Year has turned around his season with a strong finishing stretch. Last week, he closed with a 63 on Sunday to climb from No. 54 in the FedExCup standings to No. 46. That was just enough to qualify him for this event, but he’ll need another monster week to move on to the finale next week.
Cole has the fourth-highest ceiling projection of the 15 players under $7,000 and the third-highest SimLeverage in the options at that level. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven events and finished last week at T18, which was his fourth top 20 in the last six weeks.
Over his last 20 rounds, he leads the entire field in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and is fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting. He doesn’t typically have the length to contend on longer tracks under normal conditions, but maybe the elevation will help compensate for that and help him continue his recent climb in the standings.
Austin Eckroat $6,300
The only player under $7,000 who matches more Pro Trends than Cole is Max Greyserman, who will be a very chalky bargain play after back-to-back runner-up finishes followed by a strong closing 63 last week. There’s lots to like about Greyserman, to be sure, but he has the highest ownership projection of all players under $10,000, so if you’re looking for an under-the-radar alternative, check out Eckroat.
He comes into the week at No. 38 in the FedExCup Standings, and like Cole, he has relied on an elite short game to put together success. That short game has showed especially well on Nicklaus designs. Not only did he win get his first career PGA TOUR win at the Nicklaus-redesigned PGA National this season, but he also posted a T18 at Valhalla in the PGA Championship and T39 at Muirfield Village.
While Eckroat doesn’t have a ton of distance off the tee, he is typically accurate, and his putter has been heating up again lately. He ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds, which helped propel him to a T6 at the Wyndham and a T18 last week in Memphis.
He hasn’t been as flashy as Greyserman, but his ownership projection is all the way under 4%, while Greyserman’s is near 20%. Eckroat has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field, and he’s a great way to differentiate while still getting good upside this week.
