The NHL Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Skaters
Studs
Four teams are implied to score 3.1 or more goals, so there are plenty of high-end options to choose from:
Center
- Connor McDavid vs. Toronto: DraftKings – $8,100, FanDuel – $9,100
- Auston Matthews @ Edmonton: DraftKings – $7,900, FanDuel – $8,300
- Tyler Seguin @ Chicago: DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $7,800
- Sean Monahan vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,200, FanDuel – $7,600
Winger
- Alex Ovechkin vs. Los Angeles: DraftKings – $7,800, FanDuel – $8,700
- Johnny Gaudreau vs. Arizona: DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $8,000
- Patrick Kane vs. Dallas: DraftKings – $7,500, FanDuel – $8,300
Defense
- Roman Josi vs. Vancouver: DraftKings – $6,800, FanDuel – $6,100
- John Carlson vs. Los Angeles: DraftKings – $6,100, FanDuel – $5,300
- John Klingberg @ Chicago: DraftKings – $5,700, FanDuel – $5,500
After a tough stretch for the Oilers in mid-November, they’ve now won three of their past four games. They host a Maple Leafs team that has tonight’s second-highest Corsi-Against but has allowed the second-fewest goals over the past month. That brings us to McDavid’s recent peripheral stats, which are huge concern:
He’s a generational talent who carries as much upside as anyone, but unless McDavid starts shooting more, he’ll continue to have a lower floor than his high salary may indicate.
If you decide to fade McDavid, paying up for Calgary skaters Monahan and Gaudreau makes a ton of sense against an Arizona team that has allowed most goals in the league this year (3.59 per game). With the slate’s top matchup rating, the Flames could be extremely chalky at home and currently have the largest goal expectation and highest Corsi-For according to our metrics, along with the largest implied Vegas total. Calgary ranks in the top-10 in power play percentage and both Monahan and Gaudreau are in the 99th percentile in points on the man advantage over the past month.
Kane’s ceiling is buoyed by his impact on the man advantage, where he joins Monahan and Gaudreau in the 99th percentile in points over the past month, but his peripheral stats offer much more safety. On today’s slate, only Max Pacioretty and Ovechkin have more shots per game over the past month than Kane. As far as tonight is concerned, Chicago owns the slate’s second-highest matchup expectation, facing off against the Stars, who have the fifth-highest Corsi-Against this year.
The Predators’ 3.2 implied goals trails only the Flames and Wild today, so it could make a ton of sense to pay up for a defenseman like Josi. He ranks in the 97th percentile in power-play shots and shots + blocks per game over the past month. Vancouver has allowed the ninth-most power-play opportunities. That could be costly tonight vs. the Predators, who have drawn the fifth-most man advantages, with the third-highest conversion rate in the league.
Values
Cody Franson (DraftKings – $3,300, FanDuel – $3,500): If you decide not to pay up for Kane, Franson is a good way to expose yourself to the Blackhawks’ first power-play unit (PP1) at a discount. He’s being featured on the man advantage – 97th percentile in power-play shots per game over the past month – and the Blackhawks’ top unit owns (by far) the best PP line rating on the slate.
Gustav Forsling (DraftKings – $3,200, FanDuel – $3,500): Staying on the same team, Forsling could offer a leverage opportunity off of a popular Chicago PP1, but also a ton of safety in regards to peripheral stats. He ranks in the 97th percentile in shots + blocks over the past month.
Notable Stacks
And despite its popularity, that first Chicago Blackhawks power play unit currently represents one of our highest-rated four-man DraftKings stacks:
Correlating Chicago skaters is not ideal — with the top power-play unit sprinkled across two even-strength lines — but Saad is probably worth adding at just $5,800, as he ranks in the 97th percentile in shots over the past month and has a 0.31 correlation coefficient with Kane.
The Maple Leafs could go overlooked today, but they own the second-highest goal expectation on the slate. Here’s a stack featuring the Toronto PP1:
Kadri and van Riemsdyk don’t offer a ton of safety in the 35th and 77th percentile of shots + blocks, respectively. However, each fall in the 90th percentile or better in goals over the past month. Marner’s 0.48 correlation coefficient with van Riemsdyk is definitely appealing in tournament stacks, and he carries upside, ranking in the 89th percentile in power-play shots. The matchup sets up especially well today for the Toronto power play — currently ninth-best in the NHL — against an Edmonton team that has the worst penalty-kill percentage in the league.
We’ve talked extensively on NHL Inside the Lab about the value of adding a goaltender to your stacks. Intuitively, if the fantasy points expectation is favorable, it makes sense that the goalie on the same team could be in a good spot to get a win. The Maple Leafs own the second-highest Corsi-Against over the past month and Edmonton has the third-highest Corsi-For over that same period.
Note: Be sure to check out our Starting Goalies page to confirm which goaltender is starting for the Maple Leafs.
With a massive implied total, the Flames rate highly on both sites, but the second unit definitely stands out on FanDuel:
The Flames’ implied total of 3.5 goals leads the slate by a wide margin, so from a game theory perspective, pivoting to the Calgary PP2 makes a ton of sense in tournaments. They arguably carry similar upside, as well. Hamilton and Ferland are very comparable to Monahan and Gaudreau from a peripheral stats perspective:
Per our Trends tool, power play skaters with comparably high implied totals have historically provided a +1.76 Plus/Minus and 48.5 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel.
Goalies
Wins are weighted significantly in both DraftKings & FanDuel scoring, which is why ownership tends to mirror Vegas moneylines:
- Calgary -177 vs. Arizona
- Nashville -170 vs. Vancouver
- Minnesota -155 vs. Las Vegas
- Chicago -138 vs. Dallas
If you’re looking to drill deeper into favorable possibilities, it could be wise to check out our new save prediction metric. It takes into account a multitude of things, such as: the opposing team’s average shots; the team’s average shots allowed; and the player’s goals against average. Here are today’s top four options that have already been confirmed/expected as starters:
- Ben Bishop, Dallas @ Chicago (DraftKings – $7,400, FanDuel – $8,500): 31.99 saves
- Corey Crawford, Chicago vs. Dallas (DraftKings – $8,000, FanDuel – $8,400): 30.03 saves
- Scott Wedgewood, Arizona @ Calgary(DraftKings – $6,900, FanDuel – $7,100): 30.00 saves
At the time of this writing, the Toronto goaltender has not been announced, but as we already touched on, whoever ends up starting is a potential stacking candidate. The Maple Leafs are a -121 moneyline favorite on the road and should offer a strong peripheral floor tonight regardless if the team accrues a win.
Crawford is cash viable but also a potential stacking candidate. He’s the only goaltender today who is both a big favorite and is expected to see a large number of shots. The Blackhawks have third-highest Corsi-Against over the past year among teams playing tonight, but they’ve allowed the third-fewest goals.
Wedgewood is cheap, which allows massive flexibility in roster construction, but he could carry a ton of upside in tournaments if Calgary busts. While he’s definitely not in consideration for cash games, road dog goalies tend to be lower owned and Arizona has the highest Corsi-Allowed of any team. At a position with a ton of variance, you can gain a huge edge on the field by rostering a low-owned goalie against a chalk offense, especially if they steal an unlikely win.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
