This Black Friday appeared far more appetizing when we thought Aaron Rodgers would be healthy. Regardless, we have some NFL football on Friday, and there’s money to be won. The Dolphins are listed as 9.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your DFS lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Tyreek Hill was listed as questionable with a hand injury but should be able to suit up for Friday’s game. Hill struggled in both matchups with the Jets last year, but Tua Tagovailoa missed both contests.
The Jets have a stellar secondary, but opposing receivers have quietly had nice production against them. CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs both topped 100 yards, with Diggs also finding the end zone. Keenan Allen caught eight balls for 77 yards, while Davante Adams caught six balls for 86 yards.
If anyone has proven the ability to scheme the ball into his best players’ hands, it’s Mike McDaniel. Hill is the top option on the slate. Tagovailoa’s outlook has almost always distinctly been reliant on whether he’ll face pressure or not. He’s been able to post big numbers when kept upright, but with pressure in his face, he’s struggled.
New York ranks fourth in the league in pressure rate, but they finally gave up a big score to a quarterback last week in Josh Allen. Hill is the top option, but Tagovailoa is a very strong choice on Friday.
The Dolphins backfield is riddled with injuries, as Raheem Mostert is listed as questionable with an ankle and knee injury. With De’Von Achane reaggravating his knee injury, Mostert handled a heavy dose of the work last week. Mostert and Achane were both limited in practice on Wednesday,
They’ll likely have Jeff Wilson active as well. Mostert is interesting to me, but I don’t have much interest in Achane. He’s expensive, and if he suits up, it’s unlikely they give him a large workload.
Jaylen Waddle is being used far closer to the line of scrimmage this year as opposed to last year. Waddle has really taken a backseat to Hill this year. He has a career-high target rate per route run, but it hasn’t led to much production. Waddle is an intriguing option in tournaments, as most people will opt to pay up for Hill.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Garrett Wilson leads the midrange and is the first Jet in our breakdown. We’ll see how Wilson performs with Tim Boyle under center, who is very cheap. The pricing came out before he was listed as the starter. He’s a strong option, but he’s by no means a lock.
Boyle started three games for the Lions in 2021 and wasn’t very successful, with double-digit fantasy points in just one. This Miami defense is solid but nothing spectacular. However, it’s hard to get too excited about Boyle’s upside.
Wilson’s outlook is always shaky with poor quarterback play, and this game will be another example. Miami has allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers, but they have recently gotten Jalen Ramsay.
Breece Hall is my preferred option on the Jets, as he’s likely to soak up a ton of volume once again. He’s had at least 16 touches in six straight games and will likely continue that streak on Friday. Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
Allen Lazard has struggled to get anything going this year. He has single-digit DraftKings points in all but one game. He’s seen limited volume with the Jets’ offense struggling as a whole, and he’s dealt with drop issues on the limited volume he’s gotten. He is very cheap, but it’s a gross play. Make sure you have a strong stomach if you roster Lazard.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Given the expected low-scoring nature, these options may appear to be more optimal.
- Tyler Conklin ($3,200 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): Conklin is a very appealing cheap option on this showdown slate. Miami has allowed the tenth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, and Tim Boyle may lean on Conklin as a safety blanket.
- Jeff Wilson ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): If Achane misses, Jeff Wilson will likely be in line to share some of the work with Raheem Mostert, making him a viable cheap option.
- Xavier Gipson ($800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Xavier Gipson continues to get increased snaps and is insanely cheap. He’s seen seven targets over the last three games.
