This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the AFC Wild Card matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans at 4:35 p.m. E.T. on ABC. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Despite a tough matchup against a Bills defense that finished the regular season ranked sixth in schedule-adjusted efficiency per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Deshaun Watson has nearly a 2-point edge in median projection over every other player on the slate in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Watson also paces the field in Projected Plus/Minus. Especially given that Watson is cheaper than Josh Allen and first-time postseason quarterbacks tend to struggle, I’d give Watson the nod over in Allen in the Captain spot.
With Watson and Allen locked in, you can also fit both starting running backs, Devin Singletary and Carlos Hyde with $3,900 left over. The optimal combo for those two final spots is Jordan Akins (hamstring, questionable), who ran 88 routes to Darren Fells‘ 60 in Weeks 14-16, and Isaiah McKenzie, who has run a route on 64% of dropbacks since taking over as Buffalo’s No. 3 wide receiver in Week 9 (excluding Week 17).
Akins practiced on a limited basis and is expected to play, but be sure to check his status and our models once inactive players are announced. In all likelihood, the top pivot would be Keke Coutee, as Will Fuller (groin) is a reportedly a long shot to play, according to NFL Network’s James Palmer. UPDATE: Akins and Fuller are inactive and Coutee is active and is the top pivot off Akins.
On FanDuel, Watson, Allen, Singletary, and Hyde all fit with $6,000 left over. As FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format places a heavier emphasis on TDs and Fells has drawn 12 red-zone targets to Akins’ six, it makes more sense to go with Fells here.
Core GPP Plays
