Raybon’s Bills-Steelers Sunday Night Football DFS Strategy & Breakdown

This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.

Cash Game Strategy

Just how ugly is this slate? Devlin “Duck” Hodges has the highest floor projection in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Hodges also has the No. 2 median projection behind Josh Allen, but the $3,000 discount you get with him relative to Allen gives Hodges an edge of over a point in Projected Plus/Minus. Devin Singletary and James Conner (shoulder) round out the top four in projected median, but they both cost more than Hodges.

So who is the bets choice for the Captain spot? I think you have to take the value with Hodges, for one key reason: He’s the only one of the four cheap enough to fit the other three along with Steelers DST. Since Week 3, the Pittsburgh D has posted 14.27 fantasy points per game, impressively managing to crack double-digits in 10-of-11 contests over that span.

With Hodges in the Captain spot flanked by Allen, Conner, Singletary and Steelers DST, the no-brainer choice for the last spot is Jaylen Samuels (groin), who has the top Projected Plus/Minus on the slate. Both Conner and Samuels practiced in full Friday and are expected to  be a one-two punch in a committee also featuring Benny Snell. In five games with Conner this season, Samuels is averaging 8.2 touches for 35.6 scrimmage yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game.

On FanDuel, you have to fade one of Allen, Hodges, Conner or Singletary. Allen is projected for 16.3 at $15,500, Hodges 13.4 at $14,000, Singletary 10.9 ay $13,000, and Conner 10.8 at $14,000, which leaves Conner with the lowest per-dollar value projection. With Allen in the MVP spot along with Hodges and Singletary, the optimal combo is Diontae Johnson and Steve Hauschka. Johnson had his best game as a pro las week with 5-60-1 on 8 targets and a punt return TD. Hauschka has scored 8-plus FanDuel points in each of his past four games and is averaging 10.75 FanDuel points per game over that span.

Core GPP Plays