For the second week in a row, football enthusiasts get to look forward to the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. This week, they host the Buffalo Bills in a crucial AFC East matchup. At 6-5, the Pats occupy the division basement, but there’s plenty of runway left for New England to play their way into a postseason berth. That path forward starts with tonight’s battle against the Bills, and we’re expecting the Patriots to bring their A-game to the primetime showdown.
As usual, we’ve used the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator to develop a three-leg parlay expected to yield positive results.
Bills vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool quickly shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay — as you add bets to your slip — the Parlay IQ tool will update with other bet suggestions that are most likely to hit based on your selected bets.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
Bill Belichick is a clairvoyant when it comes to exposing opponents’ weaknesses. We saw him unleash Mac Jones on Thanksgiving, accounting for 364 of the Patriots’ 409 total yards. Lately, the Bills have been unable to defend the run, which should mean we get another strong showing from Rhamondre Stevenson.
Being able to fulfill multiple roles is key to excelling in Belichick’s offense, and that’s a quality that Stevenson has in spades. The 24-year-old has supplanted Damien Harris (who is also hurt) atop the Pats’ depth chart, serving as a true three-down back. Stevenson has eclipsed 1,000 yards from scrimmage, nearly doubling Harris’ rushing yard total while ranking third in receiving yards.
Stevenson carried the ball just seven times last week but still managed to gain 36 yards on the ground, elevating his yards per rushing attempt up to 4.5 on the year. That’s compatible with a porous Bills rushing defense that has allowed opponents to gain 147 or more yards in three of their last five. Consequently, opponents are averaging 4.9 yards per carry over the five-game sample.
Belichick knows his best chance at victory comes from keeping the Bills offense off the field. That should result in a heavy dose of the Patriots’ running game, helping Stevenson maintain his yards per carry and go over his rushing prop.
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Devin Singletary Over 10.5 Receiving Yards
This is the same prop we played on last week’s parlay, and we are hoping to ride it to a similar result. The Patriots defense remains astute against the pass, and that could force Josh Allen to check down to easy outlets when he can’t find holes in the secondary.
Devin Singletary was a prominent fixture in the Bills passing game early this season, but his usage has been waning over the past few weeks. The former third-round pick has accumulated just 19 receiving yards over the last three games, falling well below his season and career averages.
From Weeks 1 through 9, Singletary averaged 25.9 receiving yards per game. Since then, he’s down to 6.3. The nine-game sample is a more accurate representation of what to expect from the Bills lead back. Through his four professional seasons, Singletary is averaging 16.4 receiving yards per game, with a benchmark of at least 13.4 in each campaign.
As we saw last week, the Patriots are content to give up short-yardage passes to running backs. Singletary has fallen below his career norms over his recent schedule and is a progression candidate over his coming games.
Patriots Moneyline
The movement on this betting line offers a clear glimpse of what sharp bettors are expecting from New England. The Patriots opened as +5.5 home underdogs against the Josh Allen-led Bills, with the spread coming down throughout the week. As such, the moneyline is also on the decline, indicating the Pats are live home dogs for this inter-divisional battle. That aligns with the ScoreAndOdds projections, which show an edge in backing the Patriots to win outright.
Since the start of November, the Pats have re-asserted themselves as a dominant force in the league. New England has out-gained its opponents in three straight, with an emphasis on solid defensive play. Opponents are mustering a meager 194.0 yards per game over the previous three outings, with only the Minnesota Vikings gaining more than 121.
The Bills also have the disadvantage of playing their fourth road game over the last five weeks. A snowstorm forced Buffalo to relocate its Week 11 contest against the Cleveland Browns, meaning they’ve been traveling for three straight weeks and most of the last month. That will wear a team down, particularly in the latter part of the season when injuries and attrition become more significant factors.
According to our algorithm, the Patriots have a 46% chance of winning Thursday night, implying an approximate +118 moneyline. That leaves a substantive edge in backing the Patriots at their current price as they close the gap in the AFC East standings with a victory.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
We’re playing our projected advantage on this three-leg wager for Thursday Night Football. Based on the ScoreAndOdds predictions, this parlay should have a price of +426; however, FanDuel Sportsbook is hanging a more profitable +525 with their SameGame Parlay.
That leaves bettors with an edge that isn’t worth passing up in this primetime contest.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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