Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver
- Deshaun Watson: $6,400 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel
- DeAndre Hopkins: $7,700 DraftKings; $9,000 FanDuel
Watson is someone who needs to be in your tournament pool every week until he is priced much higher.
For his career Watson is averaging almost 28 DraftKings points — good for more than 4x value on his salary — with an average plus/minus of almost 11! He has only failed to meet his salary-based expectation once.
The top target in this offense is clearly Hopkins, who owns a 30% target share through the first five weeks of the season. No other Texans receiver is at more than 15%. It should be no surprise that Hopkins is the player most highly correlated to Watson, with a correlation of 0.75.
The Bills’ Tre’Davious White has received a reputation as a matchup to avoid for opposing wide receivers, but he is still just 15th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade at cornerback. Furthermore, he has only shadowed an opposing wideout once to start the season. With Will Fuller on the other side of the field for the Texans, it is unlikely that White covers Hopkins all game.
Running Back + D/ST
- Tarik Cohen: $4,600 DraftKings; $5,900 FanDuel
- Chicago Bears: $3,300 DraftKings; $4,500 FanDuel
Cohen only played on about half of the snaps in Week 4 (Chicago was on a bye last week), but saw a tantalizing usage pattern. He recorded 13 carries and eight targets, making it the first time this season that he received more opportunities than Jordan Howard.
It would be easy to dismiss this as a result of the score, but here was the opportunity breakdown by quarter:
1st Quarter: Cohen 5 | Howard 1
2nd Quarter: Cohen 13 | Howard 3
3rd Quarter: Cohen 2 | Howard 2
4th Quarter: Cohen 1 | Howard 6
Cohen was the primary running back option in this game, while Howard was left in to salt it away late. It is certainly possible that he is the lead again in Week 6, especially against a Dolphins team that is sixth in receptions allowed to running backs this season.
The Dolphins have been an excellent team to pick on this year with opposing D/ST’s. Miami is second in opponent D/ST plus/minus, and just 24th in adjusted sack rate allowed according to Football Outsiders. Chicago, meanwhile, is tops in the league in defensive line adjusted sack rate.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Matt Ryan: $6,800 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $7,900 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
- Mohamed Sanu: $4,800 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- Adam Humphries: $3,200 DraftKings; $4,600 FanDuel
The Falcons/Bucs game has Vegas over/under of 57.5, tops on the slate. It has a great chance to be a shootout, with both teams in the top 15 in neutral pace, top six in offensive pass DVOA and bottom five in defensive pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders.
The Falcons’ side of the game owns a ton of potential. The Bucs are first in quarterback plus/minus allowed at 14.1. The second-highest team is at 11.5. They are also third in plus/minus allowed to receivers. Jones is the league leader in Weighted Opportunity Rating.
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (12) wide receiver Julio Jones (11) and quarterback Matt Ryan (2) at the Georgia Dome.
Tampa Bay has two of the bottom-10 corners in yards per route covered per Pro Football Focus. One of them is M.J. Stewart, who is second-to-last in yards per route covered and third-to-last in fantasy points allowed per route covered. He plays 90% of his snaps in the slot, where Sanu runs 75% of his routes.
Humphries is a fantastic leverage play on tight end Cameron Brate, who should be extremely popular with O.J. Howard expected to be out for Tampa. He has played on 67% of offensive snaps so far this season, more than both Chris Godwin (55%) and DeSean Jackson (52%). Also, 84% of Humphries’ snaps have been out of the slot, and slot corner Brian Poole has been the best matchup for wide receivers opposing the Falcons.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Andy Dalton: $6,300 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel
- Tyler Boyd: $6,000 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
- C.J. Uzomah: $3,000 DraftKings; $5,100 FanDuel
- Antonio Brown: $8,700 DraftKings; $9,100 FanDuel
The Steelers are second in opponent plus/minus at quarterback, sixth at wide receiver and first at tight end. They are one of the best teams to target in DFS right now.
The one strong part of their defense is cornerback Joe Haden, who has fared extremely well against A.J. Green in his career. Green failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in any of the three matchups they have had since 2014. Expect more targets to be funneled to the middle of the field for Boyd and Uzomah as a result.
Brown enjoyed a breakout last week against Atlanta, going for more than 100 yards with two touchdowns. He has scored in all but one game this season and is fourth in Weighted Opportunity Rating.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Pictured: Chicago Bears running back Tarik Cohen (29)
