Using our Stacking tool found within our Player Models, this piece will identify some of the top stacks of the weekend. Check out our Correlations page as well to find hidden edges in stacking positions and games.
Quarterback + Running Back
- Drew Brees: $6,400 DraftKings; $8,500 FanDuel
- Alvin Kamara: $9,500 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
The Falcons allowed the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs in 2017. They also lost Deion Jones — their starting middle linebacker — to Injured Reserve before last week’s game. Unsurprisingly, Christian McCaffrey absolutely shredded them through the air in Week 2, exploding for 14 receptions and 102 receiving yards.
So who should benefit the most for the Saints in this divisional matchup? I’ll wait.
I like the idea of pairing Brees and Kamara together for a few reasons. First, they have an obvious correlation if Kamara scores through the air. Second, Brees doesn’t cannibalize Kamara’s rushing touchdown upside in the same way someone such as Cam Newton does to McCaffrey.
Running Back + D/ST
- Corey Clement: $4,300 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- Philadelphia Eagles: $3,000 DraftKings; $4,400 FanDuel
I talked about the Eagles defense as a viable pivot in the Week 3 Defense and Special Teams Breakdown, and their 2.6 projected sacks (in our Models) is the fourth-highest projection on the slate this week.
Clement was an asset in the receiving game according to my Rushing Expectation methodology — which adjusts running back efficiency based on offensive line quality — with an overall receiving expectation score in the 95th percentile on 26 targets, which is impressive considering how high of an expectation the Eagles offensive line provides.
Clement excelled in areas of the field where Jay Ajayi struggled from an efficiency standpoint in 2017, despite the small sample. There’s a chance Ajayi won’t be able to play on Sunday against the Colts, and Darren Sproles’ (hamstring) availability is also in doubt.
The matchup sets up extremely well for Clement’s skill set, as the Colts have allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to running backs through two weeks.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Wide Receiver
- Jared Goff: $5,900 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Robert Woods: $5,100 DraftKings; $6,700 FanDuel
- Cooper Kupp: $4,900 DraftKings; $6,300 FanDuel
Goff provides a 96% Leverage Score on DraftKings with running back Todd Gurley projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. The Rams’ 27.5 implied total is the fourth-highest in Week 3. A unique way to stack this game could be through Woods and Kupp, who are both projected to be much less-owned than Gurley, and are both top-five in projected Plus/Minus at wide receiver.
Woods has a team-leading 0.71 Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR) — a volume metric that combines target share and share of team air yards — through two weeks, despite accumulating the fewest DraftKings points of the Rams’ top-three wide receivers.
Kupp might need a touchdown to completely pay off his salary, but the Chargers have tied for the third-most scores allowed to the position so far this year. Plus Woods and Brandin Cooks drawing the defense downfield bodes well for Kupp’s usage underneath.
Quarterback + Wide Receiver + Tight End + Opposing Wide Receiver
- Jimmy Garoppolo: $6,500 DraftKings; $7,400 FanDuel
- Marquise Goodwin: $5,500 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- George Kittle: $4,500 DraftKings; $5,800 FanDuel
- Tyreek Hill: $8,500 DraftKings; $8,200 FanDuel
Stacking the opposite side of a chalky game stack is something I always consider in tournaments. Sportsbooks are struggling to keep up with the Chiefs, but DFS players are likely to fire hard at Patrick Mahomes and his weapons in Week 3. Bringing back your 49ers stacks with TyFreak makes a ton of sense, however, as he carries the highest ceiling of any non-quarterback in this game.
Keep an eye on the status of Goodwin, because he has the lid-lifting speed to eviscerate a Chiefs defense that has allowed a league-high 860 passing yards, along with six passing touchdowns this season.
Kittle, aka shower-narrative extraordinaire (cc: Adam Levitan), was a chalk bust last week going 2-22-0 on four targets. That said, his ownership should be depressed this week due to recency bias, and he could easily troll all the non-believers in an above-average matchup. The Chiefs were once known as a team to avoid with your tight end, but so far this season, they have allowed tied for the fifth-most reception and third-most yards, and are currently 31st in Football Outsiders’ DVOA at defending the position.
Be sure to check out our industry-leading NFL News and Models, along with our Multi-Lineup Builder, Stack builder, ownership projections and more. Also, make sure to check out our other tools for the 2018 season, including the Matchups page, DFS Contests Dashboard, NFL Ownership page, and NFL Correlations page.
Pictured above: Cooper Kupp (18) and Robert Woods (17)
Photo credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
