Sean Koerner, a 4x winner of FantasyPros’ Most Accurate Fantasy Football Ranker, breaks down his early running back targets for those using zero RB strategy in 2024. Find more fantasy football content — best ball and season-long — from Sean and Chris Raybon, including rankings and expert analysis throughout the summer.
Best Ball Zero RB Targets — 2024
Jaylen Warren
Warren was one of my favorite RB targets last season and was one of only two backs I gave an A+ grade to in my RB upside ratings. Much of that had to do with his ADP of RB50 and while he is going much earlier this season at RB25, I still think he’s worth the price. He finished last season as the RB25 which may be closer to his floor considering Najee Harris played in all 17 games for the 3rd straight season. Najee has proven to be a durable back, but no RB is immune from injury, so there is a chance Warren may end up getting some spot starts this season, where he is likely going to produce RB1 numbers with the added workload. The Steelers declined to pick up Harris’ 5th-year option and new OC Arthur Smith may opt for a more two-way backfield or even prefer Warren as the lead back. Warren might be able to post top 20 numbers even if Harris ends up playing all 17 games again but has top 10 upside if he ever misses any time. That makes Warren one of the better RB25-35 targets in best ball.
James Conner
James Conner remains an underrated fantasy asset coming off another solid RB15 finish last season, yet his ADP puts him just inside the top 30. That range is typically reserved for RBs who are potentially in a murky timeshare. While the Cardinals did draft talented rookie RB Trey Benson in the 3rd round, I don’t think he will be too much of a threat to leapfrog a healthy Conner. Conner does have some injury risk as he’s only played 14+ games in two of his seven seasons. However, we can typically expect workhorse backs to miss 2 to 3 games on average, so he’s likely getting unfairly penalized for consistently missing a handful of games a season. He also averaged the 7th highest points per game, so when he was active, he was efficient from a fantasy perspective. This makes him even more valuable for best ball teams considering he will provide you with enough spiked weeks that even if he misses a couple of games it shouldn’t hurt you too much. He’s well worth targeting at RB28.
Tyjae Spears
Tyjae Spears finished as the RB39 in 2023 despite backing up Derrick Henry, who played in all 17 games. If Spears ate into Derrick Henry’s workload as a rookie, then we could see more of an evenly split backfield with Tony Pollard. Pollard struggled for the Cowboys during his first full season as a workhorse back. I think the Titans envision this as a near-even committee and have even hinted at that publicly. Spears checks all the boxes I look for in RBs being drafted in this range, and he might be able to crush his ADP even if the starting RB for his team were to stay healthy throughout the season, but he may also produce as a top 15 back if his teams starting RB misses time. That is the ideal floor/ceiling combo I like to target when drafting running backs.
Ray Davis
The Bills selected Davis in the 4th round and considering he is an older prospect (Davis will turn 25 this year) it could indicate they intend to use him heavily as a rookie. James Cook was fantastic in his first season as the Bills lead back, but he’s a smaller RB who likely can’t handle another 300+ touch season. I can see the Bills looking to lighten his workload, especially in short-yardage situations. Davis could be an effective goal-line back and an option used to limit Josh Allen’s usage in short-yardage situations to keep their quarterback safe. This means Davis has a path to post top 40 numbers even if Cook stays healthy, but he’s also a Cook injury away from potentially becoming a top 20 back. I love his floor/ceiling profile for a back being drafted just inside the top 50.
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