The 2024 NFL campaign won’t get underway for several more months, but it’s always Best Ball season. Drafts have been underway for weeks, and prize pools entering the new season are more lucrative than ever.
Before the season actually kicks off, however, there’s a lot of guesswork. It’s safe to assume many of the confident assertions and takes you’ll read over the offseason will look downright silly once the real games begin.
In this space, I’ll be breaking down some ADP risers and fallers over the course of the offseason. To start, however, let’s take a look at several players whose ADP has changed considerably from where it was at this time a year ago.
2024 Best Ball ADP Risers
Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a player whose stock has soared quite as much as Puka Nacua’s over the past year. The Rams grabbed Nacua with the 177th overall pick in last year’s draft as 5th-round flier out of BYU. He posted some solid seasons with the Cougars, but he was hardly considered a high-end prospect. 19 receivers were selected before Nacua heard his name called.
In PPR formats, Nacua finished the season as the WR4. Only CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown enjoyed more productive campaigns. Nacua hauled in 105 of his whopping 160 targets for 1,486 yards and 6 touchdowns. His levels of production didn’t really dip over the course of the season, and he capped things off by catching 9 passes for 181 yards and a score in the Rams’ loss to the Lions in the Wild Card Round.
Nacua’s Best Ball ADP last summer was around 238th overall. Clearly, he was the best bargain of any player at any position a season ago. The secret, of course, is out. Nacua’s overall ADP is hovering around No. 9 in Best Ball drafts, and he’s 6th among receivers.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Few expected much out of the Texans a season ago, but Houston wound up making a surprising run to an AFC South title followed by a playoff victory over Cleveland. The rise of C.J. Stroud was the driving force in the Texans’ unexpected season, and Nico Collins benefited greatly from the rookie’s emergence.
Collins hadn’t even topped 500 receiving yards in either of his first 2 NFL seasons with the Texans’ revolving door of middling QBs. In his first season with Stroud, however, the Michigan product set career-highs in receptions (80), targets (109), receiving yards (1,297), and touchdowns (8). Collins also played in 15 games after dealing with some injuries in his earlier campaigns.
There are legitimate questions about whether Collins can produce at that same level this season. Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz enjoyed prolific seasons of their own with Stroud under center, while the Texans added Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, and Ben Skowronek to an already deep set of skill position players. There’s only one football to go around, and Diggs’ presence alone could be enough to neuter Collins’ chances of putting up eye-popping numbers once again.
Collins’ overall ADP was in the 140 range last season. This year, however, he’s coming off the board around No. 20 overall, and 13th among WRs.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
Much like Nacua, De’Von Achane raised plenty of eyebrows as a rookie. The Dolphins were expected to be among the league’s most prolific offenses a season ago, but Achane wasn’t necessarily expected to play a pivotal role. Injuries limited him to just 11 games in his first NFL season, but he made the most of those 11 appearances.
The former Texas A&M Aggie carried the ball 103 times for an incredible 800 yards with 8 touchdowns — that’s nearly 8 yards per attempt. Among players who toted the ball at least 100 times, Achane’s 7.8 yards per carry trounced the next-best performer – Lamar Jackson (5.5). For good measure, Achane added another 3 scores on 27 catches for 197 yards through the air.
Achane finished as the RB24 in PPR scoring despite not playing anything close to a full season’s worth of games. He was also sharing the backfield with Raheem Mostert, who put together a terrific campaign of his own during which he topped 1,000 rushing yards and led the NFL in total touchdowns.
Given Achane’s productivity and that Mostert turned 32 in April, it’s fair to assume the Fins will look to get the younger back more heavily involved in 2024. Achane’s Best Ball ADP last year wasn’t even in the top 300. Both Mostert (147) and Jeff Wilson (156) went well ahead of him. This year, however, Achane’s ADP (20th overall, 8th among RBs) is well ahead of Mostert’s (87th overall, 27th among RBs).
2024 Best Ball ADP Fallers
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp has been arguably the most prolific fantasy performer of the last 5 years, but the general consensus is that he’s now the WR2 on his own team behind Nacua. Kupp’s overall ADP last year was 7th, and he was typically coming off of draft boards as the 4th overall WR behind Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill.
This year, you’ll have to scroll down the page to find Kupp’s ADP. He’s still a respectable 36th overall and 21st among receivers, but that’s a far cry from where he was a calendar year ago. The future Hall-of-Famer will turn 31 in June, but receivers don’t typically age as quickly as running backs. Kupp does have a lot of mileage on the tires, and Nacua’s emergence means his days of being a fantasy star may be in the rearview mirror.
Kupp played in just 12 regular-season games due to injury. In those games, he caught 59 of 95 targets for 737 yards with 5 TDs. Extrapolate those numbers and you’re still looking at north of 1,000 yards for a full season’s worth of games. Not too shabby for the WR2 on an offense that isn’t necessarily pass-happy these days.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Just 2 years ago, Josh Jacobs made lots of people some cash in Best Ball formats. The former Alabama standout tailored his best season to date, carrying the ball an incredible 340 times for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns. He also added 37 catches for nearly 300 more yards. Jacobs was the third-highest-scoring player in PPR formats that year behind only Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey.
There were legitimate questions about what Jacobs would do for an encore, which is why his ADP heading into the ‘23 season was hovering around 20th overall. Typically, a top-3 running back would come off the board much earlier, but some were worried about how a potential contract holdout could affect his status moving forward.
Jacobs wound up playing in 13 games for the Raiders, but he wasn’t the same guy. After averaging nearly 5 yards per carry in 2022, Jacobs slumped his way to just 3.5 yards per attempt a season ago. Totaling 805 yards on 233 carries was supremely underwhelming, and he scored half as many rushing touchdowns as he had the year prior.
Jacobs latched on with the Packers this offseason in a fairly surprising move. Green Bay subsequently let Aaron Jones walk to a division rival in Minnesota, an indication that the 26-year-old will be the lead back ahead of AJ Dillon in 2024.
Jacobs’ ADP hasn’t tanked, but he’s coming in around 30th overall in Best Ball drafts this season.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
After a phenomenal Super Bowl run and all of the Taylor Swift hoopla, it’s easy to forget that Travis Kelce is fresh off of arguably the worst regular season of his pro career. Kelce did look like his old self when he averaged nearly 90 receiving yards per game across Kansas City’s 4 playoff outings, but that was a significant improvement on his regular-season production. Kelce averaged just over 65 receiving yards per game in 15 games during the regular term.
In all, the 34-year-old caught 93 of 121 targets for 984 yards with 5 scores. The volume was still solid, but the yardage total was his worst since his 2nd year in the league. The 5 TDs were his 2nd-fewest ever, as well.
Kelce isn’t getting any younger, but the Chiefs should still be a prolific offense with Patrick Mahomes in the middle of his prime. KC added some firepower in Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy this offseason, but Kelce still figures to play a featured role. It is worth wondering, however, whether Kelce is capable of being the fantasy TE1 again.
It’s a fairly thin position, but last year’s drop-off was steep. After scoring over 100 more PPR points than the TE2 in 2022, Kelce finished 3rd among tight ends in PPR scoring a season ago. Because tight end is such a premium position with few high-end options, Kelce was coming off of Best Ball draft boards 4th overall last season. This year, however, he’s currently ranked 34th in overall ADP. He’s 2nd to only Sam LaPorta among tight ends.
Editor’s note: Use the Underdog promo code LABS to get a bonus up to $250 for your best ball fantasy football drafts.
