Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks and Prediction for the AFC Championship

Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds

• Bengals +1.5
• Chiefs -1.5
• Over/Under 48

Following the conclusion of the NFC championship game, the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs will play each other in the AFC championship game at 6:30 p.m. EST for the second straight year, with a trip to Glendale, Arizona awaiting the winner.

Entering play, Cincinnati has won a franchise-record 10 consecutive games. Kansas City has won 11 of their last 12 contests, with their lone loss coming to the Bengals by three points in Week 13 on the road. Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have the Chiefs priced as 1.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest. If you don’t have access to legal sports betting, use our PrizePicks promo code to pick player props for Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and more!

Cincinnati Bengals Preview

Burrow under siege

During the regular season, Joe Burrow was elite no matter what was thrown at him. Per Pro Football Focus, he had a 28-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket and a 10-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. Against the blitz, he had a 25-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

A significant portion of Burrow’s recent success can be attributed to the fact that he gets the ball out of his hands quickly, with an average time to throw of less than 2.5 seconds in four of his last six games played. According to Warren Sharp, 72% of Burrow’s pass attempts for the season were released in 2.5 seconds or less. Playing behind an injury-depleted offensive line against the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, Burrow was pressured on only 12 of his 39 dropbacks.

Nevertheless, it would be naive to think that Burrow will be free from disruption this weekend against the Chiefs. Against the Bills, the playing conditions involved a snow-covered field and flurries that turned into a snowstorm in the latter portion of the contest. The environment forced defensive backs to give opposing wide receivers more room at the line of scrimmage, and defensive linemen struggled to gain traction in pursuit of the quarterback. Per Kevin Roth, gametime temperatures are expected to be in the 20s, but there is no game-altering weather in the forecast. Expect Cincinnati’s offensive line to struggle far more on Sunday against Kansas City than they did last week against Buffalo.

“The Cleanup Crew”

Per Paul Dehner Jr. of The Athletic, Bengals’ defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s defense, which dubs itself “The Cleanup Crew,” has held their opponent to 18 points or fewer in six consecutive games – excluding a garbage-time score from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with less than a minute left in their Week 15 matchup. Yet, it is worth noting that Cincinnati has played only one quarterback in that span who finished the regular season in the top 14 in EPA/play.

Though the Bengals seem to believe, internally, that they have an elite defense, outsiders have far less respect for this unit. Cincinnati’s starting defense features no All-Pros, no All-AFC members, one Pro Bowler, and only one first-round pick, Eli Apple, who ranked 103rd out of 120 eligible players at his position in coverage this year, per Pro Football Focus. It was his seventh consecutive season grading worse than league average in this metric since entering the league in 2016, leaving little wonder as to why he has been cut twice.

Chidobe Awuzie, Cincinnati’s top cornerback, has not played a full game since Week 7. In his place, the Bengals are starting Cam Taylor-Britt opposite of Apple. Britt graded 71st out of 118 cornerbacks in 2022 in defense grade, according to Pro Football Focus, though he was near league average in coverage. Since Week 8, Cincinnati’s secondary unit ranks 17th in dropback EPA. Far from a quarterback’s kryptonite, this group is vulnerable on Sunday – even against a hobbled Patrick Mahomes.

Kansas City Chiefs Preview

How healthy is Patrick Mahomes?

On Wednesday, Mahomes was listed as a full practice participant, though it is unclear if that designation was born of defiance or him truly being uninhibited during the workout. On Thursday, Mahomes was once again a full participant in practice, which was the team’s most intense session prior to kickoff this week, according to Matt Derrick of Chiefs Digest.

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round, Mahomes finished 22 of 30 on his pass attempts, with 195 passing yards and two touchdowns. After a full week of treatment and being able to test his ankle in practice, it is doubtful that he will be in worse shape this weekend.

Thuney’s impact being overlooked

Starting left guard Joe Thuney finished the regular season as the best run blocker at his position in the entire NFL, per Pro Football Focus. On 675 pass blocking snaps, he allowed only 15 pressures, 10 hurries, four quarterback hurries, and one sack.

When the Chiefs played the Bengals in Week 13, Thuney was not on the field due to injury. His backup, Nick Allegretti allowed three pressures, one hurry, and two quarterback hits on 32 pass blocking snaps.

In the rematch, Thuney is healthy, as is the rest of this offensive line. Expect this group to perform well against a Cincinnati pass rush that finished 13th in pressure rate this fall. It would be surprising if Mahomes found himself under much duress on Sunday.

Need to get pressure on Burrow

Per Warren Sharp, the Chiefs defense led the NFL in EPA/attempt this season when they were able to get pressure on the opposing quarterback. When they did not get pressure on the opposing signal caller, they ranked 32nd out of 32 teams in defensive EPA/attempt. In 17 regular season games, Kansas City ranked fifth in pressure rate among all teams, which bodes well for their success in this matchup.

Bengals vs. Chiefs Picks & Prediction

On Sunday, it is a fact that Patrick Mahomes will be operating at less than 100% health. Though it is obvious that Mahomes can still be effective in his current state, it is worth noting that he had zero pass attempts of 20-plus yards down-the-field in the divisional round. Expect him to operate frequently behind the line of scrimmage and in the short passing game, with an emphasis on getting the ball out quickly to avoid the risk of getting hit and reaggravating the injury.

On the other side of this matchup, the Chiefs are well-equipped to make life difficult for Joe Burrow and company. Last year in the AFC championship game, Kansas City held the Bengals to three points in the first 28:55 of the game before an unusual chain of events led to a Cincinnati comeback victory. In Week 13, the Chiefs did a good job forcing Burrow to hold the ball longer than he likes to – forcing an average time to throw of 2.88 seconds, which was his slowest average release this entire season.

Buy a point on the total at BetMGM for very little juice to secure push potential on the key number of 49. Take the under in this spot.

• PICK: Under 49 (-120, BetMGM)