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Bills vs. Bengals Odds
- Bengals Spread: +5.5 (-110)
- Bills Spread: -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 49
- Time: 3 pm ET
- Watch: FOX
On Sunday afternoon, the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will meet at HighMark Stadium, with the winner traveling to play the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game next weekend. During the regular season, Cincinnati finished 12-4 en route to their second consecutive AFC North division title. Buffalo extended their ownership of the AFC East in the post Tom Brady era, winning their third consecutive division title. Ahead of kickoff in this highly-anticipated matchup, oddsmakers have the Bills priced as 5.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Cincinnati Bengals Preview
Let’s look closer at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks like BetMGM and FanDuel this evening.
Playoff Burrow
In four postseason games to begin his career, Joe Burrow owns a 6-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 4-1 record, with his only loss being a three-point defeat in last year’s Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams. In the wild-card round, Burrow completed 23 of 32 pass attempts for 209 passing yards. He performed well behind a banged-up offensive line, completing four of five pass attempts for 29 yards and a touchdown when under pressure, per Pro Football Focus. If he can receive adequate protection on Sunday, he could be poised for a big day against a Buffalo secondary unit that has multiple starters on injured reserve.
Tall task for secondary unit
The biggest vulnerability for the Cincinnati defense in this contest is the secondary unit. Starting cornerbacks Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt both finished the regular season ranked 71st or worse out of 122 players at their position in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus. Against backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in the wild-card round, they allowed 226 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air. Facing a much more talented Bills’ aerial attack on Sunday, this unit will need to perform much better than they have in recent weeks.
Bengals injury news
Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie will be out for Sunday’s contest against the Bills. From Week 1 to Week 5, games in which cornerback Chidobe Awuzie played at least 60 snaps, Cincinnati’s defense ranked 7th in EPA overall, 8th in dropback EPA, and 15th in rush EPA. Since that point, the Bengals’ defense ranks 11th in EPA overall, 16th in dropback EPA, and 13th in rush EPA.
Starting offensive lineman Alex Cappa, Jonah Williams, and La’el Collins will each be on the sidelines for the divisional round. Missing two starting offensive lineman prior to last week’s wild-card round game against the Baltimore Ravens, the Bengals lost Williams to a knee injury midway through the contest. As a result, Burrow was sacked four times in the victory – the first time since October that Burrow had been sacked more than twice in a game. Per Pro Football Focus, on 42 pass blocking snaps, Cincinnati allowed 10 quarterback pressures and five hurries.
Buffalo Bills Preview
Expect a big day from Allen
In Buffalo’s 34-31 wild-card round victory over the Miami Dolphins, Josh Allen was 17 of 26 on pass attempts from a clean pocket, with zero turnover-worthy-plays on 27 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. He committed three turnover-worthy-plays on only 13 pass attempts when under pressure.
Fortunately for Allen, he will face a much easier task in the divisional round against a Cincinnati defense that ranked 20th in hurry%, 12th in pressure rate, and 29th in sacks per pass attempt during the regular season. In 17 games this year, Allen had a 6.8% turnover-worthy-play rate when under pressure, but only a 2.9% turnover-worthy-play rate when kept clean.
Thin in the secondary
Against the Bengals, the Bills will start Dane Jackson and Tre’Davious White at cornerback, tasked with slowing down Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Per Pro Football Focus, Jackson and White both graded worse than league average in coverage this fall among 123 qualified cornerbacks. Playing one of the league’s most talented passing attacks, this is an area of concern for Buffalo’s defense.
Bills injury news
Edge defender Von Miller suffered a season-ending injury in Week 12. From Week 13 to Week 18, the Bills’ defense ranked 6th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 9th in rush EPA.
Safety Micah Hyde remains out for the divisional round. Hyde last played in Week 2, a game in which he suffered a serious neck injury. He finished 2021 graded 5th out of 92 players at his position in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus, but has been limited to 101 defensive snaps in 2022.
Bengals vs. Bills Pick & Prediction
On Sunday, the temperature is forecasted to be in the mid-30s, with light snow showers expected throughout the game. Per Jay Morrison, since entering the league in 2020, Joe Burrow is 6-0 with a 14-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in games when the temperature is 35 degrees or colder at kickoff. His counterpart, Josh Allen, is 13-1 in those conditions during that time period, with a 35-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Both teams possess elite talent at the quarterback position and some of the premier pass-catchers in the league at the skill positions. Factor in that both of these secondary units are missing starters from the lineup and it becomes difficult to envision anything other than a shootout between these two teams, especially in the early going before any inclement weather arrives in Orchard Park. Take the first half over in this contest.
- PICK: Over 23.5 First Half
