As if we haven’t had enough low-total primetime games, the NFL sends us another gift with the New England Patriots hosting the Chicago Bears. The Patriots are eight-point home favorites as they look to keep pace in the AFC East, where every other team is currently over .500 and trending upwards.
This game total is now down to 40.5 points, which shouldn’t be surprising with the Bears involved. They come in with a 2-4 record, scoring the third-fewest points in the league. Playing on the road against a Bill Belichick-led defense is not usually a recipe for success, but we’ll see if they can get something working in their favor.
Picking a parlay for tonight’s game is super easy with the ScoreAndOdds Parlay Simulator, which leads to plus-expected value wagers for this primetime showdown.
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Bears vs. Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
For those who aren’t familiar, ScoresAndOdds recently released a new tool to set up same-game parlays on various sportsbooks called Parlay IQ.
This simple-to-use tool shows which bets are positive expected value (+EV) in any game based on their thousands of game simulations.
If you are building a same-game parlay, the Parlay IQ tool will calculate the expected win rate as you add more wagers to your bet slip. It then compares the projected odds to the actual odds on FanDuel, identifying how much value you’re getting on each wager.
Now, let’s get into what I am targeting tonight.
Rhamondre Stevenson Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
When diving into the Parlay IQ tool, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson stood out the most as the under on his rushing yards prop had a 73% hit rate, which was the highest in this game based on all simulations. Stevenson has rushed the ball exceptionally well recently, but that was mainly due to the absence of fellow running back Damien Harris. The latter will be back tonight after missing last week and suffering an injury in Week 5.
Before his injury, Harris had 53 rushing attempts to Stevenson’s 43. That’s essentially a 55-45 timeshare, but Stevenson has a much larger rushing prop than Harris due to his recent success. It is always tough to know which running back will be productive in this Patriots offense, but don’t just assume this is Stevenson’s job to lose. The depth chart even lists Harris as the first running back.
As eight-point home favorites, it is also assumed the Patriots will run the ball 40 times tonight. However, they will likely get quarterback Mac Jones back in his first start since being injured in Week 3. Attacking the Bears’ defense is pretty easy on the ground or through the air, so don’t be surprised if they let Jones sling it a little bit. With Harris set to return, Stevenson won’t have the backfield to himself anymore, which is a problem.
Khalil Herbert Under 32.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s look at another rushing under with Bears’ backup running back Khalil Herbert. Outside of a miraculous 63-yard run last week, Herbert only gained 11 yards on six carries. The week before that, he had four carries for 11 yards. When starting running back David Montgomery has been healthy, Herbert has only averaged six rushing attempts per game. That likely won’t cut it at his current number.
Not only is having Montgomery healthy a negative for Herbert’s rushing outlook, but so is quarterback Justin Fields. In those four games with both Montgomery and Herbert healthy, Fields had 9.8 rushing attempts per game. Herbert is basically the third-string running back on the Bears, as he has a lower rushing prop than Fields and Montgomery tonight. It is hard enough to trust this offense, but we definitely can’t trust the third-string running back.
The Patriots’ defense ranks seventh in DVOA, and it is pretty obvious what they need to do to slow down this Bears offense. The Bears have thrown for the least amount of passing yards while ranking second in rushing yards per game. Good luck getting any sort of ground game working against this Patriots’ defense if you’re that one-dimensional. Take the under on Herbert’s rushing prop with confidence in this difficult matchup.
Game Total Under 40.5 Points
The over on Mac Jones and Justin Fields passing yards prop correlated very nicely into this parlay, but with Jones coming off an ankle injury and Fields going up against a Belichick defense, let’s take the under on 40.5 instead. As previously mentioned, the Bears have scored the third-fewest points in the league and are implied for just 16 points tonight. That may be a tough number to reach, with this team averaging 15.5 per game this season.
The Patriots have been cooking offensively with rookie Bailey Zappe under center, and he threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns on the road last week against the Browns. The quarterback change to Jones may not be seamless, as he is working his way back from an injury. They already play at the second-slowest pace in the league, so if they get a sizable lead, the Patriots will likely take the air out of the ball and coast into next week.
This is going to be a slugfest. Not only do the Patriots play slow, but so do the Bears with their 20th-ranked pace. After starting out 2-1, the Bears started to unleash Fields a bit more as a passer. They haven’t won a game since, as they just put up seven points in primetime last Thursday night. Getting over 40 points seems like a big stretch with these two offenses. As long as there are no defensive touchdowns, I like this game to stay under.
The screenshot above is the bet slip on ScoresAndOdds. The screenshot below is the bet slip on FanDuel, after clicking the “Place Bets” shortcut:
Export Bet Slip to FanDuel
Based on their simulations, Parlay IQ places the true odds on this parlay at +300, but FanDuel is offering +511. That’s a good bit of value for this three-leg parlay.
Happy sweating, and good luck!
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