The PGA TOUR stays in California for another tournament on the West Coast as the top golfers in the world head from Torrey Pines outside San Diego up the coast to Pebble Beach. Last week’s Farmers Insurance Open wrapped on Saturday, giving the PGA TOUR an extra day off before the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am tees off, returning to the regular rhythm of a Thursday start time and Sunday final round.
As is typical for this event but abnormal on the PGA TOUR, the cut this week will follow Saturday’s third round. Like The American Express two weeks ago, this tournament uses a three-course rotation for the first three rounds, with each player playing a round at Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and the Shore Course of the Monterey Peninsula Club. After the cut following Round 3, the top 60 players and ties will play the final round at Pebble Beach on Sunday.
Pebble Beach Golf Links is one of the most recognizable courses in the country, and Jack Nicklaus once picked it as his preferred site if he had just one last round of golf to play. It’s a beautiful seaside course and hosts one of the PGA TOUR’s most historic tournaments. However, the fact that it lands on the schedule between big events last week at Torrey Pines and next week’s WM Phoenix Open, the field isn’t that star-studded. Additionally, the Saudi International Asian Tour event draws some of the superstars in the golf world as of the few events each year where PGA TOUR and LIV golfers go head-to-head.
Pebble Beach is the shortest driving course in the annual PGA TOUR rotation, and all three of the courses in play this week don’t favor long hitters. As a result, accurate shotmakers and players who get hot with their putter can compete even if they struggle at longer venues. With a lighter field and shorter track, more players are usually in the mix, and we’ve had some longshot winners over the past few seasons, including names like Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. mixed in with some midrange stars like Tom Hoge and Daniel Berger.
As usual, we’ll lean into SG: Approach in the picks below since it’s the metric most correlated with consistent success. This particular layout also rewards players who are good around the green and in shorter yardage situations, so I’ll also be looking more at SG: Around the Green than SG: Off-The-Tee and definitely more than raw Driving Distance. Par 5 scoring is also critical this week, and scores will tend to be low relative to par, giving players who can pile up par-breakers a big advantage.
While there aren’t as many big names in play this week as last week, the field does have some star power led by Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, and Matt Fitzpatrick, who are the only three players with salaries over $10K. Last year’s winner, Tom Hoge, checks in right at $10K as he returns to defend his title after besting Spieth down the stretch. Hoge birdied three of his final five holes to win by two strokes after a wild Sunday on which seven players held at least a share of the lead. Behind Spieth, Beau Hossler finished solo third and Patrick Cantlay and Troy Merritt tied for fourth.
In the picks below, we’ll be focused on players with success on this track in the past, good form, and good shotmaking metrics. Since these are picks for GPP play, we’ll also try to find places to gain leverage and go against the grain as far as ownership trends.
In this weekly post, the focus is players who are strong plays in GPP contests. These contests usually have lots of entries and pay out big prizes to the top few percent. One example is the DraftKings $700K Pitch + Putt, which pays out $200K to first place. In large contests like this one, it is critical to try and target players who have a chance to outperform salary expectations and come with low projected ownership.
The players highlighted will be good options if they deliver in all formats, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being the safest plays. Safety and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important. On the other hand, GPPs call for high-risk, high-reward options with high ceilings and low projected ownership. To find specific guidance for all the different kinds of contests, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A couple of key new stats to specifically use for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be extremely volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
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High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tom Hoge $10,000
While I love Matt Fitzpatrick at this event, he’s very chalky with a field-high 24.5% projected ownership. I’m a little surprised that the defending champ, Hoge, is so much lower at only a 13.7% ownership. That puts him well behind the three players priced higher than him and barely has him in the top 10 in the field.
Hoge’s win last year was his first in 203 career starts, but the 33-year-old has shown it was no fluke with a great run of results since then. In December, he also won an unofficial event at the QBE Shootout alongside teammate Sahith Theegala. He also posted top-15 finishes at the Fortinet Championship, the Shriners Children’s Open, the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and THE CJ CUP in South Carolina last fall before getting that win at the QBE.
Since the calendar flipped to 2023, Hoge finished T3 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and also made the cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii and The American Express. After taking last week off, he should be ready to defend his title this week.
Hoge has a great track record on this course, with back-to-back top-15 finishes, and he’s made the cut in three straight years at this tournament and the 2019 U.S. Open, which was also at this track.
Due to his low projected ownership and the fourth-best Perfect% in the field, he offers the second-highest SimLeverage of any player in the tournament. He also has the fifth-highest chance to win this week and the fifth-best chance to finish in the top 10, according to Vegas. If he does end up coming in with such low ownership, he’ll be a solid high-cost leverage play.
Justin Rose $9,500
Once you look past the elite options at the top of the salary structure, Rose stands out as a great play since his Perfect% is the second-highest of all players with salaries under $10K. He also has the second-highest leverage of all players over $9K. He’s projected for under 13% ownership, which is very palatable in this price range and with his upside.
He almost claimed the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach in 2019, fading to T3. He has made the cut in all three of his career appearances at this event with a top-10 finish back in 2016, but a tough closing round cost him last year, resulting in a 62nd-place finish.
One reason to think Rose can improve that result this week is that his recent form has been on point. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight tournaments with top-30 finishes in each of those events, highlighted by a top-10 at the Houston Open and a top-20 last week.
The 10-time PGA TOUR winner has a high ceiling and lots of upside for a player in this price range with such reasonable expected ownership.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Taylor Pendrith $8,900
Not only is Pendrith the only player in the bracket between $9,200 and $8,600 with a positive SimLeverage, but he also has the highest SimLeverage in the entire field with a 14.0 Perfect% and only a 6.9% Ownership Protection. He also has the highest Leverage in the field, which compares Projected Ceiling to Projected Ownership.
There’s no denying that the Canadian brings a high ceiling, but his recent form is probably why people are staying away. He missed the cut at The American Express and struggled on Sunday while sliding to 61st at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also posted less than inspiring results last fall.
When he’s on his game, though, Pendrith can go low in a hurry. Last season he posted a T49 at Pebble Beach and went on to have a great season, highlighted by top-15 finishes at THE PLAYERS Championship, the Wyndham Championship, and the BMW Championship. He also had a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The field and scoring conditions in that event have some parallels to this one.
Picking Pendrith at Pebble Beach is a contrarian play, but if he can build on last week’s made cut, it could be one that pays off. He’s a high-risk, high-reward option.
Trey Mullinax $8,100
The sims are not a fan of Nick Taylor, despite his course history, and he looks like he could also be over-owned in this price range. If you’re looking to go against the grain and differentiate your lineup, consider Mullinax, who costs just $100 more and has a 12.1 Perfect% compared to only 4.6% for Taylor. Taylor’s ownership is also projected to be higher despite his missed cut at The American Express, making Mullinax an attractive pivot.
While he hasn’t won here like Taylor, Mullinax does have a strong course history, making the cut in all four of his trips to this event with a pair of top-25s. He also comes in with stronger form after finding his groove last fall and posting top-5 finishes at the Cadence Bank Houston Open and the QBE Shootout. He also made the cut at The American Express two weeks ago.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight tournaments he has finished, with only an early withdrawal at The RSM Classic blemishing his recent record.
Value PGA DFS Picks
Kurt Kitayama $7,500
Of all the players under $8K, Kitayama has the third-highest ceiling projection, the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus, and the second-highest Perfect%. Despite those good numbers, he’s barely projected for over 10% ownership, setting him to be a good leverage play.
Kitayama tends to be boom-or-bust, which makes him too risky in some formats but a good fit for GPP play. That all-or-nothing production shows up in his history at this event, with a top-20 and a missed cut. After earning his first PGA TOUR card coming into last season (2021-22), the 30-year-old has played 29 PGA TOUR events. He has missed the cut in 14 of those events, but when he has made the cut, he has posted seven top 25s and three runner-up finishes.
His most recent “boom” finish was last fall when he finished solo-second at THE CJ CUP in South Carolina one shot behind Rory McIlroy.
He hasn’t put together a good tournament in either of his two appearances in 2023, but in this field, the Cali native offers a high enough ceiling to be worth a GPP play.
Callum Tarren $7,200
Tarren and Matthew NeSmith match Kitayama for the points-per-dollar projection of all players with salaries under $8K, and Tarren is also in the top five for players in that price range in Perfect%. The 32-year-old from England also has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $7.5K.
While he has yet to win on the PGA TOUR, he finished runner-up last November at The RSM Classic and followed a missed cut in La Quinta with a T25 last week at Torrey Pines.
Tarren has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four starts due mostly to an exquisite short game. He has more Shots Gained: Around the Green over the past six rounds than any player under $7K and the third-most in the entire field.
With such strong recent results and a game that should fit the track, he checks in with projected ownership of just under 10%.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Henrik Norlander $6,800
Norlander has the highest ceiling projection of any player under $7K this week and is still projected for under 3% ownership. He had a few strong showings in the fall, with top 25s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, but he also slipped up with a few missed cuts.
Usually, the best part of Norlander’s game is his approach shots, while he often loses strokes off the tee, so this setup should play to his strengths. His strong track record at this event supports that, with three straight made cuts at Pebble Beach and T26 and T25 finishes in the past two seasons.
Last week, Norlander knocked off the rust in his 2023 debut but missed the cut at Torrey Pines. This venue is a much better-suited fit for his skillset, so look for stronger results for the Swede this week.
Marcel Seim $6,500
Seim is a great sleeper play this week, matching Norlander’s ceiling projection but with a little bit lower floor projection and the highest median projection of all the players under $7K. Siem is projected for under 1% ownership and is a great flier to differentiate lineups with chalky golfers.
He brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all golfers under $7K and ranks No. 7 in the entire field. He also has the highest points-per-dollar projection of any player under $7K and the highest Leverage and fourth-highest SimLeverage of players in that price range.
Siem is not a familiar name for most PGA TOUR fans since he rarely plays in the United States. He played the Barbasol Championship and the Barracuda Championship last summer, but other than that has been playing in Europe since 2015. His best showing that season came at Pebble Beach, where he finished T18 in his only previous appearance at this event.
While that event seems like ancient history, he does have some recent results that are worth noting as well. The five-time winner on the European Tour (now the DP World Tour) has made the cut in nine of his past 10 tournaments, including three top-20 finishes in his four most recent events. His best finish during that run was a T5 at the Investec South African Open Championship at the beginning of December.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his past seven DP World Tour events and has been putting the ball very well. In fact, he has the most Shots Gained: Total and the most Shots Gained: Tee To Green of any player under $7K, although those numbers are obviously from different courses than many of the U.S. competitors have been playing.
The European veteran is definitely a wild card, but if he can carry over his recent success to a track he does have experience on, he could end up being a steal at this salary.
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